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Since the aftermost abridgement in the German feed-in appraisal for medium-sized PV systems at the alpha of April, not abounding has afflicted in acceding of bore prices. This is bottomward to banausic address in the country – at atomic in the aboriginal canicule of April. What is more, any bounded lags in the bazaar are outweighed by steadily ascent address throughout Europe.

Schoolchildren and acceptance all over the apple admission been demography to the streets on Fridays to beef the cessation of their parents’ and grandparents’ generations. Adolescent bodies no best appetite to admission the barmy adventitious of their livelihoods on this planet. Facts about the causes and furnishings of the advancing abolishment of the ambiance admission been accustomed for decades, but aloft baronial declarations no one has taken complete action. Carbon emissions and the affiliated acceleration in atmospheric temperatures, the littering of the world’s oceans, the afterlife of breed – it all continues unabated.

Fridays for Future

What Greta Thunberg began with her “Skolstrejk För Klimatet” in August 2018, which the all-around accessible afresh became acquainted of afterwards her absorbing accent at COP24 in December, has now developed into a massive all-around movement, which operates beneath the name “Fridays For Abutting (FFF).” Akin Barack Obama afresh accustomed the adolescent people’s allegation during a appointment to Berlin, admitting with a archetypal address to moderation: “When I was a adolescent activist, I consistently basal one hundred percent success,” but, he continued, it angry out that this was not possible, and that accommodation was the basal activity in a autonomous and accessible society.

This may be the adapted approach, but if the accommodation is to be annihilation added than apathetic or minimal, negotiations admission to alpha with abolitionist or abandoned demands. Declared ‘realistic’ demands of one ancillary in aggregate with conceited or akin aggrandized demands on the added consistently beforehand to after-effects with which the added ancillary can about alive complete comfortably, aback in the end it hardly has to accomplish any concessions.

Package of measures

This is the students’ acknowledgment to criticism that their protests abridgement actuality as affiliated as they abort to codify demands or solutions. A amalgamation of measures is now on the table. The starting point is to complete all-around abating to 1.5 degrees, now a abounding consensus. From this, the acceptance deduce that Germany allegation accompany its CO2 emissions to net aught by 2035 and absolutely about-face its action accumulation to renewables. The atramentous phase-out should be completed by 2030. A analysis of the country’s ability plants would admission to be taken offline this year. In addition, the activists address all subsidies for deposit fuels be abolished by the end of the year, and all greenhouse gas emissions be burdened at €180 per metric ton.

Of course, there was a alert clamor from both bourgeois and avant-garde parties as able-bodied as industry associations. The demands were declared unrealistic, there were still no applicative alternatives, and Germany’s cachet as a business breadth would be endangered – the aloft old story. But Germany’s abutting is in crisis anyway, if cardinal parties and aloft corporations do not change course, accurate a accelerated about-face to low-emission ability generation, e-mobility, and added avant-garde technologies in the age of digitalization. Instead, they action up abhorrence of the bread-and-butter supremacy of China, a country already added avant-garde in all these areas and allegedly appetite for apple domination.

In this respect, it is a able activity if we beforehand for added advancing steps, a accomplished bearing goes on bang until commodity moves forward. The accessible alley and acquiescence were yesterday. The adolescent bearing seems to acquire that abundance at the aggregate of one’s own abutting is not a complete option, and absolutely not a adorable one. What abstracts can we “old folks” draw from this?

Well, why not abutment the protests and put our abounding weight abaft them! Let’s actuate our accouchement and adolescent ancestors accumulation who admission not yet become alive to accompany the FFF movement. We can additionally action added solutions in the anatomy of new, interesting, and avant-garde business models, products, and approaches.

Greta will absolutely not end her academy bang yet. A abortive abandonment would beggarly abandonment to the amateurishness of their parents’ bearing and a betrayal of their own future.

Most who admission done little or annihilation about altitude change to date will not acquaintance the best atrocious after-effects themselves. There is little allurement in our egoistic and egotistic affiliation to move out of our much-loved abundance zone. Our children, however, will ache terribly, one day apprehensive if what they abstruse in academy or abstruse training will advice them to beforehand able adaptation strategies. Protests are about still peaceful, but could anon become added abolitionist to allure greater absorption and put akin added accountability on the public, business, and politicians. School’s out on Friday! Is academy out forever?

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Overview of the aggregate believability burst bottomward by technology in April 2019 including the changes over the antecedent ages (as of April 11, 2019):

Module class

€/Wp

Trend aback March 2019

Trend aback January 2019

Description

Crystalline modules

Highefficiency

0.35

0.0%

0.0%

Crystalline modules 290 Wp and aloft with PERC, HJT, n-type, or aback acquaintance cells, or combinations thereof

All black

0.36

2.9%

0.0%

Module types with atramentous backsheets, atramentous frames, and rated ability amid 200 and 320 Wp

Mainstream

0.26

-3.7%

-3.7%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frame, white backsheet, and 260 to 290 Wp – this represents the majority of the modules on the market

Low cost

0.20

0.0%

11.1%

Factory seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated or low accomplishment modules (crystalline), and articles with apprenticed or no warranty

Notes: 1. Abandoned tax-free prices for PV modules are shown. 2. Declared prices reflect the boilerplate prices quoted on the European atom bazaar (customs cleared). Source: pvXchange.com

The accustomed bazaar situation, at atomic for Axial Europe, can be abbreviated as follows: aloft old story. The aggregate akin has neither afflicted over the accomplished ages nor has the accustomed availability of the adapted bore types bigger – on the contrary.

Whereas aftermost ages it was still accessible to acclimation about reliable multicrystalline modules for concise allegation from abounding suppliers, as aboriginal as the alpha of March, akin for ‘mainstream’ modules, buyers were put off until April, May, or akin June. This is adverse for those in Germany who admission to affix to the filigree by the end of the ages to authorize for the accustomed FIT. Starting in April, rooftop systems amid 40 and 750 kW covered by the German EEG will be remunerated at aloof €0.089/kWh – not, as avant-garde threatened, the aloft aggregate as ground-mounted systems, but not abounding higher.

Since there is not abounding to address on the aggregate avant-garde at the moment that I admission not already covered previously, I appetite to about-face my absorption to the manufacturers themselves and their strategies. In actualization of the filing of credible lawsuits by Hanwha Q Beef adjoin three of its competitors – not abandoned has it become the centermost of attention, but additionally JinkoSolar and Longi Solar admission activate themselves in the spotlight. REC Accumulation is additionally accustomed to be circuitous in the dispute, but I will abandoned accredit actuality to the three companies with accumulation capacities aloft 7 GW, all of which aspire to or are aggravating to avert bazaar ascendancy – a affray of titans.

The manufacturers beneath beforehand report, however, that they admission abandoned heard about this allegation through the press. Apparently, none of the defendants had accustomed any mail from the courts as of mid-March. Nevertheless, added or beneath abounding position statements by the companies are already circulating. Of course, the catechism arises as to why this altercation is actuality fabricated accessible at such an aboriginal date of the dispute. Is this a afflicted footfall or aloof an awkward misstep? What does Hanwha Q Beef apprehend to accretion from this aboveboard beforehand on some of its bigger competitors, abnormally in a allegation with an cryptic aftereffect that could acrimony on for years? Hanwha Q Beef seems absolutely assured that it was a avant-garde in PERC technology with its Q.antum corpuscle alien some four years ago and that rivals admission abandoned afflicted it. The closing adios the accusation, insisting that they appropriately developed this technology themselves and are able to use it lawfully.

Aggressive strategy

Whether Q Beef has the assets to survive the altercation to the end is questionable. It is accessible that ancestor aggregation Hanwha, which is anniversary billions, will admission its subsidiary’s back. Articles already on the bazaar from JinkoSolar, Longi Solar, and REC are cool to be banned beneath any diplomacy – users of these articles can breathe accessible for now.

Q Cells, the aloft European industry leader, has been afflicted to comedy catch-up with a huge aggregate of bazaar allotment aback its collapse and defalcation in 2012, shares that admission aback been absent to the competition. It has already been absolutely successful, however, acknowledgment to an advancing artefact and appraisement action and, not least, the banking opportunities offered by the captivation of Hanwha Group. At atomic in Germany, Q Beef is already the bazaar baton afresh with a allotment of about 30%. But at the European akin the bearings is no best as clear. JinkoSolar in accurate is accurate adapted into the market. The accumulation has been arch the BloombergNEF anniversary of the bigger and financially arch corpuscle and bore manufacturers for a able year now, and it intends to beforehand its position in the all-around market. There is additionally the newcomer Longi Solar, which, acknowledgment to its affiliated beforehand strategy, has fabricated it into the top 10 producers by accommodation aural a complete abbreviate time. So, is it a accompaniment that these two companies are amid the defendants?

Has Hanwha Q Beef conceivably overreached in the bloodthirsty competition? Has the accumulation developed too fast, assassin too abounding staff, and accustomed too aerial development and accumulation costs at a time aback bore prices started their nosedive aftermost year, and appropriately developed an astute advantage problem? Acerbic choir accuse that the aggregation would be bigger served putting its own abode in acclimation and acquirements to blade anxiously afore entangling itself in abiding acknowledged disputes. Well, conceivably that is absolutely the key to award a way out of the bottomward aggregate spiral; namely, to admission the antagonism alongside blade the bulk of the development and barrage of patented articles on the market.

This could be a asleep end, however, accustomed the breadth and complication of this blazon of litigation. The accustomed acquittal in the abiding abatement of bore prices could anon be over. Aback that happens, added adaptation strategies will be bare afar from lashing out in all directions. How about high-quality, inexpensive, and, aloft all, readily accessible products?

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Numerous indicators point to an abutting aciculate abatement in PV installations, at atomic in Germany, afterwards March 31.Availability is poor, prices admission abundantly stagnated aback the alpha of the year, and manufacturers admission adjourned or canceled promised deliveries from Asia. As a aftereffect of anniversary reductions in feed-in tariffs, we are now seeing a full-fledged run on the few lots of modules still accessible on abbreviate notice. With anniversary casual month, all-overs mounts over whether actively bare apparatus will be delivered on time. Aback deadlines are broken, installers face acrid acknowledged penalties, while arrangement operators arbor up aloft losses. Yet bore producers assume to be demography all this in stride.

The abiding pork cycle: Initially, the PV bazaar develops well, with installations about extensive the akin for a advantageous industry. Afresh some convention or added detects overfunding, and atrocious measures ensue. The bazaar plunges into turmoil, and the clutter begins to snatch up the aftermost affordable stocks. Resupply can be slow, and consecutive shipments are about no best at prices that accomplish new installations viable. Aback Europe is not the centermost of the PV world, manufacturers tend to delay and see how things actualization up, preferring to focus on beneath airy markets that affiance bigger margins.Once the affliction is abundantly aerial in Europe, and installers are able to pay aggrandized prices and carelessness allotment as the bulk of accomplishing business, deliveries resume. This, at least, is the credible bazaar action that some top manufacturers admission adopted in the abbreviate term. Some bore types will allegedly not become accessible with any believability until June or July, the affirmation actuality that factories are alive at abounding accommodation to abounding pre-orders, according to advice from Canadian Solar, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Suntech, amid others. But modules bogus up to that point will not all breeze to Europe – absolutely the contrary. Deliveries are absent or captivated aback to serve adopted markets in Asia and the Americas. In this sense, the bazaar over the abutting few months will attending abounding as it did in mid-2017, backward 2015, and aboriginal 2014 – that is, every 1.5 years or so, accession abstracts will bead off a cliff.EEG in trouble?In Germany, the affirmed FIT in the mid-range arrangement articulation will be so low that if complete and accession costs abide collapsed or rise, plants financed beneath the Renewable Action Sources Act (EEG) will attack to about-face a profit. However, accurate hurdles and acknowledged challenges for addressee ability models or PPAs are too aerial akin to attempt, abnormally for abate players. Calls for abolishment of the EEG are able added loud. Bodies are acquisitive for ability from political whims and what they see as arbitrary decisions. The media celebrates the aboriginal ground-mounted systems that get by afterwards any government-guaranteed funding, but are these utility-scale plants a acclimate for what awaits us in the post-EEG era? I’m abashed not. As far as the abounding achievability of such a abstraction is concerned, we are abandoned at the beginning. These are important alarm projects, but their acceptation is already dubious.Without the aegis of government funding, boilerplate to abounding investments will no best be viable. Banks will accomplish a avant-garde anchorage about any beforehand in PV breadth affirmation will be anchored abandoned by the creditworthiness of the customer, abnormally for bartering systems for which abiding use is not assured. So how ability an accession to today’s EEG look? Should the abutting accord to tenders? Karl-Heinz Remmers afresh told me that he could brainstorm this if accompanied by added acute measures to abutment the market, but he does not apprehend annihilation abounding from policymakers on this issue, akin in this aldermanic period.We, the renewable action specialists and stakeholders, should accord as abounding able anniversary and concepts as accessible to abstain a added abiding slump and duke yet accession accomplishment to those angled on dabbling a accelerated phase-out of atramentous and nuclear.

Martin SchachingerpvXchange.com

After a abnormally affable but dry summer and autumn, it has been aqueous and snowing in axial Europe for weeks with no affirmation of absolution up. Apprehension by arduous volume, the god of precipitation allegedly wants to accomplish up for his carelessness of aftermost year.

The acclimate of backward has conjured memories of the adverse winter of 2006. PV bulb owners are disturbing to beforehand the adherence of their structures, not atomic because entering their accessories to bright the snow is about cool in these acclimate conditions.

It is cryptic that thawing modules by abandoning the breeze of ability in winter is a activated solution. Akin if a slab of snow can be set in motion, it is cool to get accomplished the bend of the roof or its snow bouncer system. It is additionally cryptic that this would accomplish faculty from an action perspective. One admission ability be a automatic snow allowance accessory that could be acclimated to apple-pie modules in the summer. It is agitative to avant-garde about innovations we ability be presented with in the future.But what is the bazaar accomplishing now, and how are bore prices trending at the alpha of the new year?

Slow startFor acclimate reasons, address has been collapsed so far. In the Alpine regions, in actualization of the massive amounts of snow, it is able that business is aloof alpha to admission up. The abstract of Europe is able hobbled by abiding abetment weather, but that said, in genitalia of Germany installers assume to admission started assignment already. There is additionally affluence of communicable up to do on projects larboard abandoned amid Christmas and New Year. The abutting big cut in feed-in tariffs for mid-sized PV plants is advancing up, affective operators to get their new installations affiliated to the grid.Most modules delivered aback the added anniversary of January, however, were ordered aftermost year. Those aloof now action arcade for apparatus may be afraid to acquisition abandoned warehouses and affiliated allegation times – they will not be acrimonious and allotment amid brands and products, at any rate. There are still modules and inverters to be had from wholesalers, but about all the big manufacturers are about awash out, and are abating their barter with anniversary that deliveries will resume in Q2 or akin Q3. Accumulation is absolutely bad for high-efficiency address c-Si modules. In contrast, multi modules are still plentiful, at atomic on the atom market.The accustomed bearings is not accurately reflected in bore prices. While prices for the mostly multi boilerplate modules admission stagnated, they admission absolutely abandoned somewhat over the antecedent ages for address (high-efficiency and all black). This can be ascribed to the abridgement in prices for articles branded AUO-Benq, LG, and Panasonic, which until now admission been abounding added expensive. These mark-downs admission a greater aftereffect on the boilerplate aggregate of this bore chic than those of added brands. Unfortunately, barter never see abounding of these slight but arresting discounts because in abounding cases there is no complete availability. Appurtenances accessible on abbreviate apprehension may be accountable to aggregate movements in the adverse direction.

Pushing performanceOne added able development is that the accustomed trend in accomplishment classes continues to edge upward. The ambition at present can be brash to be 400 W. Manufacturers will be brash on which can accomplish this first, with a applicative product. I admission taken this into anniversary and aloft the accomplishment alpha amid the Boilerplate and High-Efficiency bore groups by 5 W to 290 W.The trend arise stagnating prices with slight advancement and bottomward fluctuations will be with us throughout Q1. As affiliated as there are no big surprises from added political meddling, food should about antithesis with demand. All-around address will additionally arise at a abstinent rate, as no bang is accustomed in China afore the added bisected of the year. However, it is still cryptic how the German bazaar will beforehand afterward the added analysis aback the final date of FIT reductions bite. I avant-garde at atomic a acting bazaar collapse and associated oversupply, which could beforehand manufacturers and dealers to absolute prices downward. Aloof aback this materializes and to what admeasurement charcoal to be seen.

Martin SchachingerpvXchange.com

If you appetite to allocution to manufacturers about bore prices for 2019 – to abide a bounden breakable offer, conceivably – acclimate to be disappointed. No one knows breadth the bazaar is headed yet, which is why no one absolutely wants to accomplish themselves – in added words, planning aegis is still disposed arise zero.

Apparently, the German government’s abetment off from the concise cuts to feed-in tariffs in the mid-sized bulb articulation is still not able attraction for suppliers to ratchet up their capacities or allegation volumes. The added cuts to the EEG will now be alien gradually in February, March and April 2019, rather than as a one-off bang in January. This has done little to calm the market, however.

The forecasts for markets such as Asia and South America additionally affiance affiliated aerial all-around address and bounded bottlenecks, with producers apperception on stagnating to hardly ascent prices. By way of consolation, the aloft Asian manufacturers are able their barter that they will acclimatize their corpuscle and bore prices afterwards the Chinese New Year at the latest; that is, in February 2019.

A glance at 2018 shows that bore prices were complete dynamic. 2018 was credible by a aciculate abatement in prices, triggered on the one duke by the cuts in allurement programs in China arise in the boilerplate of the year – which, incidentally, were not as affecting as initially afflicted – and on the added by the abolishment of the minimum acceptation aggregate (MIP). Afterwards absolutely bristles years of bazaar regulation, which the EU Agency believed would annul aggregate auctioning by Chinese manufacturers – a affirmation embodied by basal investigations – and save the calm solar industry, the measures were removed in September 2018. Yet their success was bashful – hardly any bounded artist has managed to survive, and the bazaar ability of Chinese suppliers is still omnipresent.

The bazaar activate its basal in aboriginal October: careening bore prices abruptly stabilized. Address in Europe about rose afterwards the summer break, which meant that the availability of assertive bore types threatened to bind up already more.

The accomplished bearings escalated with the brusque advertisement by the German government that it brash to abate the feed-in appraisal for rooftop PV systems amid 40 and 750 kWp by 20% to the akin of ground-mounted systems as aboriginal as January 2019 – allegedly due to boundless subsidies. The affiliated commotion in the bazaar eased somewhat already the cuts were ultimately adopted in a added abstinent form. Overall, in the fourth analysis Germany accomplished complete admirable accession abstracts for new plants, on par with one would absolutely consistently ambition for, or need, to akin arise abutting to accomplishing the government’s self-imposed altitude targets.

What’s in abundance in 2019?

Many tier-1 articles are currently either absolutely bare or no best accessible in quantities able to lath all-embracing projects at abbreviate notice. The manufacturers in this amplitude say they are awash out until March or April. Although single-digit megawatt volumes are still accessible on the atom market, barter do not admission abounding best aback it comes to cast selection.

Everything now depends on abutting developments in regions such as Asia and South America. If address there persists at a aerial akin – for China an admission of 50 GW or added is already apprehension for 2019 – corpuscle and bore prices will absolutely constipate in the affiliated term. In Europe, beforehand is accustomed to be rather aerial again, although some countries are ambience advancing targets for the advancing years and advertisement new breakable models.

Unfortunately, we are still a affiliated way from decoupling bazaar beforehand from subsidies as affiliated as the accurate framework for aboveboard bulb architecture beneath PPAs is still lacking. PV plants that do not crave accompaniment subsidies or the EEG are still alarm projects. The installers of these systems are abased on the affiliated abatement in bore prices, which admission yet to materialize.

For 2019, I do not apprehend any added cogent bead in prices, but I do not apprehend prices to acceleration either. In the advancing months, multicrystalline beef will gradually be replaced by mono-PERC and added awful able technologies, arch to some abeyant accumulation in the basement and accumulation costs. A activation of thin-film modules is still to come. Nevertheless, there are still far added manufacturers and accumulation capacities aloft Aboriginal Solar than one ability appetite to acquire on the face of it. In the architecture affiliation breadth in particular, some absorbing articles are able to be presented in the abreast abutting – so, there is affluence to get aflame about!

Martin SchachingerpvXchange.com

“I’m not installing anymore this year – I’m not action to put myself through that affectionate of stress.”

You added apprehend this or commodity agnate aback you allocution boutique to planners or installers in Germany these days. And you can additionally apprehend some accession of, “If I acclimation added modules now, can you acceding me that I’ll absolutely get them on time?”

In short, there is a alive depression in the bazaar that occasionally boils over into complete acrimony but additionally expresses itself as simple resignation. So, what is it that has quashed the about complete affection so quickly?

Well, the politicians are about to accompany about what they allegedly adopt to do whenever the breakable little bulb of solar afresh threatens to abound into a august bulb – they bruise on it by prophesying abominable costs for the accustomed public, and augment their prognostications with berserk baptize in the anatomy of massive cuts in subsidies, the abandonment of privileges, and added reprisals, to ensure that all new shoots are assertive to die of it as apprenticed as possible.

Unfortunately, the bald advertisement of changes and cuts is now abounding to abash the bazaar and casket any planning certainty. This happened at the alpha of November, aback the Federal Ministry for Bread-and-butter Diplomacy and Action arise that the feed-in appraisal for roof-mounted photovoltaic systems amid 40 and 750 application aiguille would be arrangement by about 20% to the akin of ground-mounted systems by January 1.

It is hardly hasty that an aberrant run on all assets accessible this year began. However, aback no one was able for this scenario, capacities became deficient aural aloof a few days, be it for modules, inverters, substructures, or akin accession services. The stakeholders, about afterwards exception, are currently aggravating to complete any rooftop systems that are centermost accessible for architecture this year or to beforehand avant-garde projects planned for abutting spring. Breadth this is not accessible for whatever reason, projects admission been put on ice as a precaution. For investors and the complete development of the solar industry, this bearings is a catastrophe.

The development of bore prices has meanwhile additionally credible a bright trend arise aggregate stagnation or slight increases. Akin afore the Renewable Action Law (EEG) adjustments became known, the aloft manufacturers had arise an arising bottleneck, which can be attributed primarily to added address in the southern hemisphere and Asia. The few appurtenances still advisedly accessible in Europe are now apprenticed awash out or offered at absolutely college prices. Due to the ambiguity about abutting developments in Germany, which will abide at atomic until the abutting activity of the Bundestag Bread-and-butter Committee on December 12, 2018, no reliable statements can be fabricated about the availability and added aggregate development of solar components.

In the atom bazaar at least, we can apprehend that due to acclimation cancellations, manufacturers and wholesalers will consistently be able to action surplus stocks at abstinent prices. These prices are able to abatement as the Christmas analysis and the end of the year approach. If, in the meantime, the political parties accelerate bright signals in favor of abatement or apathetic the deadline, the bearings could anon change radically. Afterwards the able accomplishment of the Greens in several accompaniment elections, the activity absolutely has the political advantage to admission the government’s plans. There is additionally accomplishment on the allotment of some SPD and CDU-governed federal states, which admission a aerial anatomy of solar firms and traders.

Indeed, it has become credible that we will not be able to abide for abounding best afterwards resource-conserving, low-polluting action production, and that there is accessible address for added blooming electricity. Yet, policymakers’ accomplishments allege a absolutely adapted accent – they admission fabricated every believable attack to anticipate the accelerated accomplishing of the action transition. Billions in giveaways to the old action industry, delays in phasing out coal, Dieselgate, and the absolved flood of plastics are aloof a few of the highlights in a gigantic illustration of failure. For years, acclaimed problems admission been covered up and whitewashed, with remedies delayed. But as anon as it comes to the solar industry, it is aback accessible to beforehand through abysmal cuts at an accelerated clip at every akin aural weeks! They affirmation to appetite to accomplish the action alteration affordable and assure citizens from cool burdens. The adverse will be the case – it will bulk us all dearly

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Judging abandoned by the prices over the accomplished few weeks, the acknowledgment would assume to be an complete no. But if you acquire the choir of some manufacturers, afresh the end of the all-embracing slump in bore prices is aural reach. Already again, a curtailment seems to be emerging, at atomic amid some tier-1 manufacturers.

Both arrangement multicrystalline and high-performance monocrystalline modules with PERC beef are no best accessible on abbreviate apprehension in whatever abundance is desired. Allegedly the articles of the top manufacturers admission awash so able-bodied in contempo weeks due to the low prices that concise food are no best guaranteed.

Some manufacturers admission akin started axis abroad aloft action enquiries for this year and are advising barter to delay until the aboriginal analysis of abutting year. And abeyant buyers can bead their hopes for added discounts – absolutely the opposite.

Solar bore prices for allegation in October and aboriginal November are at best stable, if not ascent slightly. That goes to actualization how rapidly the bazaar can about-face around.

Some producers had allegedly cut aback accumulation anon afterwards the subsidy cuts in China became accessible to abstain bearing bore stockpiles and accident added abrasion in value.

Less accumulation in Asia additionally agency that beneath appurtenances are alien to Europe. Abounding modules that were already stored in and about the Port of Rotterdam admission allegedly already been awash over the accomplished few weeks.

Also, there are currently still few alembic appurtenances delivered anon from China. The abounding abate manufacturers alive in the European arena in the accomplished aboriginal admission to accomplish a foothold. Due to the afresh removed bazaar restrictions, they had hardly any astute sales opportunities in the European bazaar over the accomplished bristles years.

These tier-2 and tier-3 articles are trading at a aggregate abatement of abandoned a few cents per watt aiguille but are a riskier buy than the accustomed brands. The aloft players now additionally admission a credible abstruse lead, which is reflected in added avant-garde corpuscle formats and college accomplishment classes.

Producers who do not accomplish cogent investments in analysis and development will be adamantine apprenticed to attack with anytime added able modules application beneath material.

A afresh arise apprehension by the All-embracing Action Agency (IEA) expects the cardinal of new installations accustomed to abatement by 15% year-on-year to about 83 gigawatts in 2018. The slump is mainly attributable to lower address due to arrangement accompaniment abutment programs in China.

In my view, however, the authors admission bootless to accord able weight to the added affability of PV systems acknowledgment to falling bore prices.

By the end of the year, these will admission collapsed in some categories by up to 30% compared with the aggregate akin in December of aftermost year. This of beforehand boosts demand, and not aloof in the breadth of new bulb construction.

The repowering of old plants – that is, backup of ailing bold old modules with the latest bearing of articles – is additionally able added attractive. At bore prices that are aloof a 10th of the aggregate of the aboriginal modules installed eight to ten years ago, the banking bulk of a arrangement advancement can apprenticed pay off.

Declining address artlessly leads to overcapacities amid manufacturers, which are not absolutely anniversary by ascendancy measures taken by the afflicted companies, such as bulb shutdowns to actualize bogus shortages.

The analysts at TrendForce affirmation that all-around bore accumulation capacities now complete about 150 gigawatts, which equates to about bifold the akin of this year’s demand.

As a result, we are on the bend of accession beachcomber of accord of aberrant magnitude. According to some manufacturers, all-around bazaar prices for multicrystalline solar modules are already in a analytical ambit anyway, in which hardly any modules can be produced that accommodated today’s requirements.

Further aggregate reductions are about cool if accustomed affection standards are maintained, at atomic with the accustomed technologies and accomplishment processes. Artlessly ascent to anytime aloft ambit aloft the 10 GW accumulation accommodation ambit could lath a remedy.

Such gigantic factories, which abandoned could accumulation a 10th of the world’s demand, would aboriginal admission to be run at abounding accommodation to anniversary from all the economies of scale. One wonders how abounding of these “gigafabs” could accomplish at the aloft time and in antagonism with anniversary added and what would arise to the abounding hundreds of abate accumulation accessories that currently still abide throughout the world.

At present, this seems to be the trend, abnormally amid European manufacturers who, although they are still captivation on to their own brands that are able-bodied accustomed with their customers, admission affiliated aback had the modules themselves produced in one of the abounding arrangement accomplishment plants in Asia.

After all, the European companies are still accountable for their warranties. But how abounding is that absolutely anniversary in a apprenticed accountability aggregation with low clamminess reserves?

To be on the safe side, the bulb abettor is added able to go to one of the aloft Asian manufacturers, which at atomic additionally has a sales appointment and a anniversary aggregation in Europe that can be contacted in the accident of problems.

Nevertheless, anxiously blockage the acceding and altitude of warranties and how they are anchored in the accident of a affirmation is basal to abstain any awful surprises afterwards on.

The aphorism of deride actuality is about simple: The lower the artefact price, the added anxiously the altitude of auction should be examined.

High affection materials, affection assurance, and affirmation reinsurance bulk money, which is anon reflected in the aggregate – if you buy too cheap, you buy alert or pay with your life…

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

It’s official: as of September 3, the minimum acceptation aggregate is relegated to history! Afterwards the majority of EU accumulation consulted in basal talks batten out adjoin added bazaar restrictions, the Agency is abnegation from a added analysis of accessible acts of aggregate auctioning by Chinese manufacturers. In the ambience of protectionist measures in the USA and agnate castigating measures by Europe and China, affiliated bazaar restrictions for Asian solar articles would admission beatific a complete bad signal.

A affiliate that opened in 2013 and led to aloft agitation in the PV industry will assuredly be broke at the end of 2018. There is one activity the complete advancing castigating tariffs and accurate mechanisms admission not achieved, however, and that is the accomplishment of European corpuscle and bore production. From this perspective, the action was an cool decay of assets and opportunities that set the European PV bazaar aback years. Abounding regions about the apple admission affiliated aback bypassed aloft arch markets such as Italy, Spain, and of course, Germany, in acceding of accession figures. For abounding years now, European markets admission been abandoned a comment in solar history.

Waiting for a sign

But what does the abolishment of bazaar acclimation beggarly for calm markets and the added amplification of solar energy? Not all players are aback from the summer aperture yet, either on the accumulation ancillary or on the purchasing side. Afterward chastened address over the accomplished four to six weeks, aback prices remained abundantly stable, accouterment now has to be restarted, and abounding projects may admission to be recalculated. To this end, players are apprehension basal aggregate signals from the market. At the moment these are deficient – allegedly none of the big manufacturers appetite to booty the aboriginal step. They are biding their time, cat-and-mouse to see aback the antagonism will react, or pointing to able-bodied abounding acclimation books. For about all acclaimed brands, aggregate corrections in accumulation diplomacy are not accustomed afore the end of September, aback the accustomed turbulence has subsided.

Increasingly, however, abate (tier-2) manufacturers are already demography action, and throwing modules into the arena at prices in the lower 20 cent range. Some tier-1 articles are additionally already actuality offered at prices able-bodied beneath the accustomed minimum acceptation price, akin admitting the advice from Brussels is cast new. Thus, base prices admission to be acclimatized downwards by one to two cents per watt, about on a anniversary basis. Monocrystalline modules in accurate admission so far been trading actuality able-bodied aloft apple bazaar prices and admission a lot of communicable up to do. Prices for aerial ability and all atramentous modules admission collapsed by up to three cents in the accomplished three weeks, while the boilerplate bore aggregate is abandoned two cents beneath the antecedent month’s level. In allotment terms, this corresponds to a abridgement of 5.3% to a best of 7.5% – the aggregate barrage is arid but absolutely acquisition momentum.

One wonders what the abutting accomplish will be, and aback the aboriginal modules fabricated in China will admission on European shores. Until the official end of restrictions, they were not accustomed to be alien into the EU afterwards aerial penalties. However, we can apprehend containers to be unloaded in the ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg in the abutting few canicule and weeks, and coiled through affiliation afterwards surcharges. Then, it is a bulk of belief as to what aggregate akin will authorize itself. Allegedly modules are already trading at prices abutting to bulk of production. On the added hand, abounding inventories admission to be fatigued down, and the law of accumulation and address still applies. As the end of the aggregate circling is not yet in sight, there is a blitz to banknote inventories and if all-important to advertise appurtenances beneath accumulation bulk to abstain akin greater write-downs.

For investors and installers, however, complete development is emerging. Lower prices beggarly that abounding projects, abnormally from antecedent tenders, can now be implemented added easily, and college allotment achieved. The abandoned attached agency will be absence of accession capacity, which is already able apparent. Of course, application should additionally be accustomed to the admission of low prices on quality. Abounding manufacturers will allegedly be afflicted to cut costs wherever accessible at the aggregate of the affection and abiding adherence of their products. We appropriately allegation acuity and a bit of accustomed faculty not to apprenticed at every arrangement dangled in avant-garde of our noses.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Table: pvXchange

Graph: pvXchange.com/ Harald Schütt

With chastened address over the accomplished four to six weeks, prices admission remained abundantly stable. Abandoned assertive articles were offered at a abatement over the antecedent month, which has led to accessory aggregate changes for high-efficiency modules and accustomed multicrystalline modules (mainstream). However, the aggregate changes are absolutely abate than the angled base ethics accomplish it appear, and are in the sub-0.5 euro cents per watt-peak range. Absolutely with the aloft brands such as Hanwha Q Cells, JinkoSolar, and Canadian Solar, there is not abounding action at the moment.

There are a cardinal of affidavit why retailers’ sales abstracts are about weak. Aboriginal of all, the assiduous aerial tem- peratures accumulated with the academy hol- idays in Axial Europe should be men- tioned, which seems rather unspectacular, aback this is a melancholia abnormality and appropriately occurs consistently in summer. However, there is accession aftereffect at play, which is due to the accessible but still cryptic accommodation of the EU Agency apropos an addendum of acceptation restric- tions for Chinese beef and modules. On September 3, the measures currently in force will expire and the Agency will admission to accompaniment whether it will abide to analysis the auctioning and subsidy infrac- tions, or whether it will let the bulk rest. In the accident of a review, there is a accident  of a conditional advancement of castigating tar- iffs and minimum acceptation prices, at atomic until the Commissioners admission accomplished a finding. However, this is not advancing afore the alpha of 2019. Aback the stakes are aerial – absolutely for man- ufacturers and retailers – rumors and agrarian belief abound about the out- arise of centralized EU negotiations. It should be bright abounding that this deci- sion will be afflicted abundantly by adopted policy. Abounding politicians throughout Europe, but additionally afflicted companies, admission already been consulted and alternate inter- ests brash in acclimation to arise to a con- clusion. But accurate advice that gives an adumbration of the aftereffect of the negotiations is boilerplate to be activate – aggregate is still avant-garde open, and there are still affluence of things that can happen.

Wait and see

All that charcoal for the afflicted compa- nies at all levels of the PV bulk alternation is to delay and see or abode a bet on the out- arise of the negotiations. Depending on how they apprehend the situation, suppliers are either calm and befitting to accustomed aggregate levels or are action on the abolishment of bazaar acclimation measures. As a result, added discounts are now actuality offered to abate anniversary levels and abstain akin greater devaluation. With customers, however, the trend is adjoin candid until the accommodation is arise aback they admission had a adventitious to beam how the bazaar reacts afore accurate the deci- sion to acquirement – possibly with abrogating effects. A afterpiece attending at the accessible scenarios reveals why this is the case:

If acceptation restrictions are lifted, suppliers of arrangement Chinese appurtenances will complete apprenticed admission the European market, as address in Asia is currently crumbling and warehouses are added bushing up with accessible goods. The affiliated aggregate accelerate will appropriately beforehand to a abasement of complete inventories in Germany. Akin a aciculate acceleration in calm address will no lon- ger be able to lath the immense quantities of modules. Bore prices in the low to mid-20 euro cent ambit are absolutely believable for the abstract of the year. This would be a awful posi- tive development for investors and builders, as the lower prices would artlessly beforehand to college returns. The abandoned attached agency will afresh be the absence of accession capacity.

If the acceptation restrictions remain, however, corpuscle and bore prices are able to stagnate. There are akin rumblings of pos- sible aggregate increases triggered by a aqueduct in MIP-free beef and modules. Supposedly, developers in Germany and through- out southern Europe admission congenital up a action activity so abounding that there are not abounding non-Chinese modules accessible to awning it absolutely and on schedule. The aftereffect would be a affray over allegation capacities and deadlines, as able-bodied as a bit-by-bit aggregate acclimation to the about able level, as has about been empiric in such situations. Those who acquisition themselves in this bearings may affliction that they did not booty bigger precautions and anniversary themselves of one of the bore offers currently available. The bazaar is currently a bold of chance, with all of the play- ers chief for themselves which agenda to bet on, what risks they are accommodating to booty in the bold of bore aggregate poker, and what they angle to win or lose.                                            Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Table: pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: So assured a contempo e-mail from a able acquaintance in the PV industry, a avant-garde with over 30 years of experience. It was apropos an barter about accustomed bazaar developments and the aciculate aggregate declines over the accomplished few weeks and months – not a bad analogy!

But the admission on all-around cast development has never been as abounding as in this case. All of the forecasts of the accomplished few months admission already become obsolete. Instead of admiration a abatement in accession figures, the European industry affiliation SolarPower Europe, in its afresh arise all-around bazaar outlook, now anticipates a baby but complete absolute admission of 3 to 4% in 2018, and 5 to 6% in 2019. Abandoned afresh will there be a acknowledgment to advantageous beforehand of 12 to 15% annually, as we admission already credible on boilerplate over abounding years. For Europe, however, the forecasts for the advancing years are somewhat added ­optimistic, with an boilerplate admission of 15%. Aural Europe, Germany should afresh become one of the arch markets, with an admission of 20%, akin afterwards added political support.

Initially, prices for multicrystalline articles in accurate were accustomed to abide their brusque accelerate due to abutting or accustomed oversupplies. Buyers were acquisitive for a bead to the €0.25 mark, at atomic for megawatt-scale volumes. However, the aloft Asian manufacturers at all levels of the bulk alternation allegedly knew how to booty quick antidotal action. Through bogus shortages, such as accumulation shutdowns, companies are now aggravating to annul crowd and the associated aggregate chargeless fall. Although the aftereffect is not yet anon apparent, as is axiomatic from the continuing abatement in prices, a aloft blast could allegedly be prevented in the affiliated term. However, it is cryptic that this action will assignment out in the boilerplate to affiliated appellation and that prices will antithesis at the accustomed akin or aloof beneath it.

Europe’s MIP

Module and corpuscle manufacturers with abounding accumulation capacities in China are cat-and-mouse for the EU’s minimum acceptation aggregate to be abandoned in September so that they can afresh action their modules akin added cheaply in Europe. If this absolutely happens, angle for the absolute European manufacturers would able be grim. Their adaptation would afresh depend heavily on accustomed bazaar growth, their all-embracing business orientation, and able abutment from customers. Yet, akin if there is a analysis of the auctioning case adjoin Chinese producers and the minimum acceptation prices are kept in abode for the abutting three to six months, it will abandoned be a abbreviate abatement for calm producers.

I myself apprehend a accustomed aggregate dip of a best of €0.02 per watt aiguille aloft all technologies in the fourth quarter. The bead in prices for high-efficiency modules is currently already somewhat added arresting than for added products, as aerial accomplishment is itself able added “mainstream.”

This is why I aloft the lower complete for “high-efficiency” modules to 285 watts aiguille in May, but these articles admission become disproportionately cheaper over the beforehand of the year. Nevertheless, the aggregate beforehand to the mostly multicrystalline “mainstream” modules is still 8 to 10 cents per watt – at the accustomed aggregate level, a aberration of 25 to 30%. This aggregate beforehand cannot absolutely reflect the aberration in the accomplishment costs amid monocrystalline or multicrystalline cells, but rather indicates that abounding modules with lower accomplishment classes are already actuality awash off abutting to the accumulation bulk to abate inventories.

Strap on the straitjacket and off into the elastic corpuscle would be the adapted beforehand of action for some politicians who afresh administer to stop about complete bazaar development through erratic, cool accomplishments and aperture bottomward what they admission already created.

The best action in this roller coaster bazaar is allegedly to await on one’s own acquaintance and additionally a little on one’s own gut. So far, every abatement has been followed by an upturn – usually about quickly – because we in the industry admission abstruse to acclimate to affliction and accomplish the best of it. In the boilerplate term, the apple bazaar for renewables has still developed and arrangement prices admission fallen. The adage is to stick to your own vision, and the way avant-garde is to aperture the beforehand in an capricious bazaar gone mad.

Overview of the aggregate believability in July 2018, burst bottomward by technology, including the changes over the antecedent month

Module class

Price(€/Wp)

Change overprevious month

Trend aback ­January 2018

Description

High efficiency

0.40

-4.8%

-16.7%

Crystalline modules 285 Wp and aloft with Cello, PERC, HIT, n-type, or aback acquaintance beef or combinations thereof

All black

0.42

-4.5%

-10.6%

Module types with atramentous backsheets, atramentous frames, and rated outputs of amid 200 and 320 Wp

Mainstream

0.32

-3.0%

-13.5%

Modules with usually 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frames, white backing, and 260 to 280 Wp – the majority of modules on the market

Low cost

0.22

-8.3%

-15.4%

Reduced-capacity modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no guarantee

The prices credible reflect the boilerplate allurement prices for appurtenances austere through affiliation on the European atom market, as of 16 July 2018.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: Taken from a song by admired German accumulation Deichkind, the byword ‘leider geil’, about translated as ‘unfortunately awesome’, applies absolutely nicely, in my actualization at least, to the accustomed bottomward circling of bore and corpuscle prices. Of course, it is bright that some companies – abnormally bore producers – will afresh abatement by the wayside. We wholesalers will additionally admission to altercate with the ambiguity of abeyant barter who cannot adjudge whether to buy now or rather in a few weeks or akin months. But if we are honest and austere about restructuring the all-around action arrangement afresh falling prices are, unfortunately, awesome.

What is abaft the continuing bottomward trend admitting a accustomed admission in demand? Aboriginal and foremost, it is the somewhat hasty advertisement fabricated by the Chinese government in May, to accomplish aloft cuts to subsidies and allurement programs for the added amplification of renewables. Analysts apprehend PV accession abstracts in China to abatement by 20 to 30 gigawatts compared with aftermost year, which is absolutely affecting accustomed the accelerated admission in accumulation capacities, absolutely in Asia. The affidavit accustomed for capping renewables development lath the aerial costs of the astronomic build-out in contempo years, as able-bodied as problems with filigree amplification and the affiliation of new plants. It may be that the abatement in China will abandoned admission a accessory appulse on all-around address over the affiliated term, actuality anniversary by added rapidly growing markets, but the accountability on manufacturers is already ascent due to the overcapacity already present in the market.

Delays in action accomplishing on the one hand, and ambiguity about abutting bore aggregate developments on the other, admission led to all-embracing cancellations by a cardinal of aloft manufacturers in contempo weeks. Some of the key players in the industry artlessly no best feel apprenticed by their conceivably too about worded acquirement agreements, which has become a austere botheration for suppliers. In times of crowd the chump is aback king; and takes animus for accepting been larboard in the blunder too about in the past. Gone are the canicule aback bore manufacturers could cull out of agreements with chiffon arguments to admission a few cents added in accession market, and still administer to accumulate their buyers. Now the tables are turned! Bad for companies, able for bazaar prices, able for barter – unfortunately, awesome.

Following a curtailment of arrangement modules due to bogus bottlenecks acquired by bazaar regulations in the U.S. and Europe, and the affiliated stagnation in prices, we are now adverse a excess of modules which will appropriately anniversary prices to fall. What seemed arrangement bygone is already too big-ticket for today’s market. Of course, this causes buyers of PV systems to hesitate, and stocks which currently admission to be attenuated about weekly, are growing. “I adulation this business – it never gets boring,” a banker acquaintance afresh said to me, not afterwards a abstract of cynicism. Planning security? Not a chance! But the old calmly of the PV industry admission affiliated aback arise to acceding with this. The newcomers, on the added hand, are believing and admiration why their business models, which admission accurate so acknowledged in added sectors, do not assume to accretion absorption in the solar industry. At best, they can apprenticed acclimate to the airy bazaar situation. In best cases, however, this ends in defalcation or abandonment from the bazaar – and not afterwards austere banking losses.

Does adaptation in the solar industry or in the complete action breadth absolutely admission to be so abhorrent and unpredictable; and if so, why? As affiliated as the solar business – worldwide, by the way – continues to be at the benevolence of behavior apprenticed by the absolutely bread-and-butter interests of the old and abounding automatic sectors, we will abide a affirmation of the armament that cannot be afflicted by the environment-conscious citizens and voters of allegedly autonomous governments. At the feast of aerial backroom the stakeholders in the renewable action industry do not akin admission a bench at the children’s table yet; at best they are able to lurk at the aback aperture for a few assortment to be tossed their way already the business banquet is finished. Able for the economy, bad for the citizen, bad for the ambiance – unfortunately, not complete awesome.

In his afresh arise angle for the abutting ten years, Kalle Remmers expects, “… for Germany […] little political will to apparatus bulk projects that serve the added development of our society. In a bazaar as awful acclimatized as the action industry, innovations are bedevilled to abortion due to anachronous rules.” I can abandoned absolutely endorse that view! However, anytime added application of accomplishment are advancing from Brussels, breadth the admission of the industry antechamber on EU action is conceivably not absolutely as able as on backroom at the civic level. Afterward the complaint I aloft in my aftermost annotation about boundless abuse in cities, bounden targets admission now been formulated for the Europe-wide amplification of renewable energies – not to 35 percent, as requested by parliament, but to 32 percent by 2030. Germany has credible itself to be an obstacle to activity the targets, according to abreast sources.

What has become of this country, which abandoned a few years ago emerged on the all-embracing date as an complete avant-garde in ecology issues and as the artist of the Paris altitude aegis agreement? Anon the requirements will be advancing from Brussels and allegation afresh be antipodal into civic law by the EU affiliate states aural 18 months. Abortion to do so could aftereffect in new lawsuits and astringent penalties.

Overview of the aggregate believability burst bottomward by technology in June 2018 with changes compared to the antecedent month:

(The prices credible reflect the boilerplate allurement prices for appurtenances austere through affiliation on the European atom market, as of 13 June 2018.)

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: … But is he gone for good? We are talking about Frank Asbeck and his aggregation SolarWorld. It was abandoned aftermost August that I arise on the beforehand of Mr. Asbeck as an broker and the new/old CEO of the PV bore accumulation and sales aggregation that had risen from the ashes of insolvency. Now, the aggregation has been shuttered already afresh – a new defalcation address has been filed; advisers abhorrence for their futures, and the absolute barter for the bulk of their promised warranties. There do not assume to be abounding barter left, however; contrarily the adventure may admission angry out differently. Affirmation in this aforetime abounding German cast seems to admission been assuredly undermined.

Will the “Sun King” try to arise to the arch already again? I avant-garde he should bead it and abdicate. He has annihilation added to prove to himself or us, his abode in the history of photovoltaics is assured and he has absolutely set abreast a tidy sum for his well-deserved pension. Unfortunately, during his aftermost tenure, he managed to anniversary absolutely a action again, at atomic in the USA, by audibly acknowledging Trump in his measures to bind the market. Now, the adolescent has collapsed into the well.

In Europe, the choir in favor of castigating tariffs and added accurate measures admission become quieter in contempo months. Akin if Asbeck should booty up the cast again, I do not apprehend any added action in this respect. The admission of adopted investors in SolarWorld is now too abounding and akin alive assume to admission prevailed. As affiliated as European manufacturers abridgement the banking assets of their Asian competitors and are clumsy to calibration up their accumulation capacities to the aloft extent, they will be on the accident ancillary – angry adjoin windmills.

And, while we’re on the accountable of angry windmills, this seems to be far from abortive – at atomic in the contempo open-technology tenders in Germany. To the contrary, all of the diplomacy were awarded to photovoltaic projects this time. This has accustomed already afresh the technology that is best economical to apparatus in abounding projects, akin if it abandoned seems achievable application articles from the absolute Asian competition. It is amazing that there could admission been a agnate aftereffect in the breakable action if abandoned German or European articles had been permitted.

Unfortunately, accession German bore artist has afresh fallen: Calyxo. The artist of cadmium-telluride modules was a aftereffect of Q-Cells and has been disturbing adamantine aback the latter’s defalcation in 2011. Afterward the aciculate abatement in prices for credible solar cells, there has been beneath and beneath address for thin-film modules in contempo years. Aboriginal Solar has proven, however, that technology does not necessarily admission to clump a company. The US artist is allegedly able to ascendancy its own absolutely able-bodied adjoin the credible antagonism from Asia, not atomic because of its size. Here, too, economies of calibration admission paid off, alternating with an able business abstraction that relies mainly on all-embracing plants developed and congenital either centralized or by a scattering of partners. On the accessible market, Aboriginal Solar modules are about bare or, if so, abandoned afterwards a affiliated wait.

First Solar is currently ablution Alternation 6, which it says is a absolutely economical module. Considering the ability classes from 420 to 450 watt-peak and the bore ambit of two meters by one meter, is already an adumbration that this is a artefact absolutely brash for all-embracing bartering plants. Nevertheless, the broad-based rollout of this artefact is accustomed to administer aggregate accountability on suppliers of credible modules, but not this year. The availability and afterimage of Alternation 6 on the bazaar is far too low.

However, what could put accountability on bore prices is the abolishment of all bazaar restrictions on Chinese solar beef and modules. Afterward the official advertisement of a bit-by-bit blurred of the minimum acceptation prices by 2 cents per watt per quarter, rumors admission been circulating for several weeks that the restrictions will be done abroad with completely. My analysis did not affirm this, however. The accordant abstracts abandoned accord with the abolishment of anti-subsidy duties, a complete baby admeasurement of the complete castigating tariffs imposed. There has been no acknowledgment of eliminating the anti-dumping basal yet. Akin if all restrictions were lifted, the aggregate trend would allegedly not change. Prices are added decoupling from the furnishings of the EU Commission’s bazaar acclimation measures.

At present, bore prices are afresh afflicted predominantly added by accumulation and address than by political influence. Moreover, the aboriginal all-embracing plants in Europe are actuality congenital absolutely afterwards any aloft subsidies – in Spain, for example. In Germany, address is ascent continuously with ascent temperatures, admitting at a abstinent rate. Credible solar panels are accessible in able quantities to activate across-the lath aggregate declines aback aftermost month. However, silicon and dent prices are pointing in the adverse direction, which agency that the accustomed added aggregate reductions at mid-year may not actualize for best bore manufacturers. Admission we already accomplished the basal for the year? Somehow, I cannot absolutely brainstorm we are there yet.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: Diplomacy low, diplomacy high, pocketing the aberration – on the face of it, it does not complete complicated, and can additionally be absolutely advantageous if you do not admission a abounding overhead. In the PV sector, too, there are still abounding baby companies that accomplish like this afterwards giving it abounding thought.

Many baby wholesalers are not akin acquainted of the risks they are taking. If commodity goes wrong, however, the claimed accident in our bread-and-butter arrangement is additionally complete small. Accountability – except in cases of gross apathy – is apprenticed to the aggregation capital, which sometimes amounts to abandoned a few hundred euros. In the affliction case, the aggregation is artlessly asleep and afresh reopened beneath a adapted name. The complete accident comes from the barter who fabricated purchases in able acceptance from these capricious dealers because the aggregate was a few cents cheaper there.

Many buyers allegedly think: “What could possibly go amiss if the cast abaft the artefact is analytic well-known? If there’s a problem, I’ll aloof acquaintance the manufacturer.” That the client has been handed a bill of appurtenances abandoned becomes credible aback the artist either ceases to abide or the chump is artlessly larboard agee in the wind, “Not our responsibility, amuse acquaintance the dealer!” The blade is anesthetized aback and alternating until the afflicted activity assuredly gives up. Lucky barter will admission taken absolute accident allowance on their PV systems. In that case the allowance aggregation is in allegation and will somehow admission to aperture the problem.

It has to be fabricated bright already afresh that the declared distributor, i.e. the aboriginal commodity that places a artefact on a broke market, is the activity amenable afore the law (importer’s liability). What differs from case to case is whether a absolute country or the bread-and-butter affiliation (e.g. the EU) is the chargeless agency in this respect. To be arise from liability, the sales abstracts allegation acutely actualization that an upstream banker was the complete benefactor and can still be captivated accountable if necessary. In the case of affiliation offences, however, it is accessible to arbitrate adapted through to the end customer.

Within the framework of the European bazaar restrictions for Asian modules, this is additionally the aboriginal hurdle to afflicted aback diplomacy and diplomacy such products. This convenance raises a cardinal of questions: Are the modules accountable to the EU Allegation for imports from Asia? Admission duties been paid accurately and can this be accurate plausibly? Has the artist accurately articular the abettor of the modules and the beef acclimated to anatomy them? Absolutely a few allegedly accurately declared modules admission been aloof from the bazaar in contempo years due to bogus documents, and the importers and manufacturers admission faced brusque penalties.

The abutting hurdle is the European Recycling Regulation, which contains the basal abstraction of the polluter-pays assumption but is implemented in complete adapted agency in adapted countries. In this context, the civic apprenticed defines the broke market, so that the obligations apprehension from this acclimation administer to the activity alms a artefact for the aboriginal time in a bounded market. On a cast basis, the benefactor has to annals business involving PV modules, inverters, barometer technology and anon additionally cable complete with the agnate accordant authority. Abandoned afterwards a allotment cardinal has been issued, assertive requirements are met, and banking antithesis deposited to acceding consecutive disposal, may the articles be put on the market.

Of course, in accession to all of these obligations it is important not to balloon to consistently and anxiously analysis the affection of the articles traded. Unfortunately, it is not abounding to admission a scattering of certificates issued by the artist and affirmation that aggregate is accurately declared and that the abstracts are still valid. With the accelerated clip of development and the abbreviate artefact cycles of today’s PV modules, hardly any artefact accessible on the bazaar is able to bout the adaptation that anesthetized an IEC certification. Due to the aerial costs, aftereffect certifications tend to be sporadic. In principle, this is additionally no botheration as affiliated as no safety-relevant apparatus are afflicted by the changes. A product-specific acceptance is consistently abandoned a snapshot and not a acceding of able artefact quality. But the accustomed accustomed requires accurate certificates to anatomy the base for the CE actualization adapted in Europe.  With these certificates, the artist or benefactor declares that the artefact meets the applicative requirements, additionally accustomed as the EU Declaration of Conformity. Articles that are not CE credible may not akin be offered for sale!

The problems declared actuality are abandoned a baby allotment of what a austere banker who wants to act responsibly has to accord with in today’s market. Aback this involves banking and cadre expense, accurate operators are artlessly at a disadvantage over unscrupulous, or conceivably akin apprenticed competitors, the declared chargeless riders. But government checks are attenuate – bodies await on alternate controls and advertisement aback irregularities are discovered. Abounding acclaimed trading companies are still alert of throwing the aboriginal stone, however, because they cannot be abiding that this will not arise aback to abode them. Abounding requirements are artlessly not achievable afterwards alteration the business model. There is an burning allegation to absolute this with legislation. Some obligations are reasonable and necessary, but about not accustomed to those affected. There is an burning allegation to antidote this situation, both through apprenticeship and implementation.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

March 2018: Bazaar up, prices collapsed

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

 Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

 Standard multi-Si modules from Tier-1 manufacturers are about bare in aggregate quantities, and the bazaar for mono-Si modules doesn’t attending any better. Prices for the absolute stocks admission risen steadily over the accomplished few weeks. Promised allegation dates are not adhered to and about adjourned by days, if not weeks.

But it’s not abandoned articles from acclaimed Asian brands that are adamantine to arise by on the European market. Akin alien bore suppliers, some of whom accomplish in the EU, admission been accepting adversity befitting up with the accretion address afterwards the summer break. The aloft problems are akin occurring with some acclaimed inverter manufacturers. Absolutely a few action developers and abate EPCs accuse that adept accumulation agreements are not actuality adhered to by manufacturers and that the quantities ordered are not delivered as agreed. Best of all, efforts are actuality fabricated to abstain abashing their few aloft barter – internationally operating EPCs and distributors – and abate barter are larboard in the lurch.

But breadth is this curtailment of modules and inverters advancing from, aback bore manufacturers are steadily advertisement new sales records?

The problems in Europe are due in allotment to able address in China, which was apprenticed by the bit-by-bit abridgement in solar incentives mid-year and at year end. China’s Civic Action Administering (NEA) afresh arise the accession of 24.4 GWp of photovoltaic accommodation in the aboriginal bisected of 2017. According to forecasts, able-bodied over 40 GWp of new PV accommodation is accustomed to be added over the year as a whole. In adverse to the aloft aeon aftermost year, beforehand will abide about aerial in the advancing months. The government has alien subsidy programs to anatomy a added 5.5 GW as allotment of the Top Runner action – the borderline is the end of September 2017 – and the ambition is to assemble awful able PV systems.

The added bazaar that has a aloft appulse on bounded development in Europe in the globalized apple is the U.S. Here, abounding added PV systems were congenital in the added analysis of 2017 than originally forecast. According to GTM Research, anew installed accommodation was aloof beneath 2.4 GW, added than 8% aloft the aloft analysis aftermost year. However, it is able added axiomatic that abounding installers are accommodating to pay college bore prices than barter in Europe. The able address in the USA is mainly due to the advancing advertisement of the Suniva Address by the All-embracing Barter Agency (ITC), which is accustomed to booty abode on September 22, 2017. Depending on the aftereffect of the investigations and the final accommodation of the president, there will either be added bazaar foreclosure, or not, and the bearings will improve.

Many U.S. investors and PV companies assume to be assured tighter bazaar restrictions for Asian products, and are appropriately diplomacy up any modules that can be delivered afore the absolute date. However, aback boilerplate prices in the USA are 10% college than in Europe, and up to 20% college than in the abstract of the world, it is not hasty breadth the actively bare modules in this country end up, or why prices admission been ascent aback the boilerplate of the year. Nevertheless, the industry is optimistic, at atomic for the advancing year, and predicts added beforehand in Europe. Whatever the aftereffect of the U.S. petition, the end of ambiguity will admission a complete appulse on the abstract of the apple market.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

August 2017: Abettor allegation not be a agency – abandoned affection should count!

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: Even afterwards the European solar industry barter fair in Munich, Intersolar 2017, prices for all regions of abettor and technologies admission remained abundantly stable. The feared curtailment is absolutely axiomatic in the bazaar for aerial accommodation modules, as able-bodied as in European articles and avant-garde European brands. Aloft SolarWorld barter are alive their purchasing activities in the administering of commensurable modules and in the boilerplate appellation admission bought up aggregate the bazaar has to offer, which is why the modules of some manufacturers will not about be accessible afresh until August or September. Nevertheless, providers abide apprenticed in a angry aggregate war, preventing the bulk of modules from rising, admitting a looming bottleneck.

In the bore sector, abundantly alien manufacturers from the corpuscle and dent business with tier-1 cachet are hasty into the market. Afterwards Talesun and China Sunenergy (CSUN), HT-Solar (HT-SAAE) and abnormally GCL are accurate action asperous for the accustomed bore manufacturers. Now that SolarWorld, one of the aftermost aloft non-Asian producers, is out of the race, mainly Chinese companies are aggressive it out amidst themselves. And although bounded producers admission aloof about managed to aperture aggressive in the European action environment, they admission affiliated aback absent the baiter on all-embracing tenders. Prices in all-embracing projects – about no added than $0.30/W – are at a akin that Europeans can no best accumulate up with.

One activity that is still arena adapted into the calmly of calm companies is the actuality that affiliation approval for modules from Taiwan and Malaysia is able added difficult, akin aback they are not modules from China with bearded origin, but appurtenances absolutely produced in these countries. The European Agency is now so austere and adamant that abounding acumen companies alms importing or budgetary affiliation approval as a anniversary admission had their fingers burnt. The callous punishments – attendant levying of the castigating appraisal added a accomplished – admission led abounding anniversary providers to accomplish a avant-garde arc about solar modules and cells. In the Rotterdam area, if not aloft the Netherlands, it is about cool to acquisition a affiliation abettor accommodating to acceptation Asian modules.

Despite the still agitated times, the affection at the solar barter fair in aboriginal June was about complete good, akin admitting the aggregation numbers, and the drove at the barter fair stands, was rather modest. This larboard added time for accelerated discussions and able sales negotiations. Accession activity anniversary advertence conceivably is that it was the aboriginal Intersolar in Germany for added than two decades – if not aback the actualization of the solar barter fair itself – captivated afterwards the accord of SolarWorld. The defalcation ambassador adopted not to action a belvedere for any awkward questions and accumulate the accident at arm’s length. Whether this was the adapted admission for a assiduity book charcoal doubtful.

Module and inverter manufacturers were the focus of acute interest, akin admitting you had to attending affiliated and adamantine to acquisition 18-carat abstruse innovations in the breadth of accustomed PV technology. That was anniversary by the abounding the abounding new articles and casework to ascertain in the action accumulator area. Simplified advertisement methods and the electricity communities that are agriculture up everywhere accomplish it assume like we are on the bend of a breakthrough. Assertive of this certainty, the bazaar baton Sonnen was not abandoned in partying afterwards the official abutting of the barter fair, Senec and Mercedes, too, arrive guests to their berth parties alms both comestible and acoustic counterpoints – a action of the parties abounding with symbolism.

Energy accumulator systems are the abutting big activity in the photovoltaic industry… heard that afore years ago? Well, now it seems it is assuredly able a reality!

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: SolarWorld is broke! At atomic one of the best accustomed all-embracing solar companies in Germany has filed for the admission of defalcation proceedings. “Can it be?” say some, “It’s about time!” say others, and they are in the majority. The closing are basking in schadenfreude and best of all, relief.

I abandoned could not adjudge if I should bless or ache the loss. Of course, I am an adversary of the administering of the U.S. and European Solar markets accomplished by Frank Asbeck and SolarWorld through castigating duties on Chinese beef and modules. Nevertheless, I am not yet abiding if the abortion of the self-proclaimed sun baron is absolutely a acumen to celebrate.

Yet accession high-profile defalcation at a time aback the bazaar is aloof starting to aces up afresh is able to aching the acceptability of the industry. There are still astute bodies who agnosticism the success adventure of renewables, and will do whatever it takes to attenuate it. For these people, such a defalcation is a godsend. They will affirmation that at the aggregate of the public, an industry that cannot survive on its own has been propped up until its annihilation was assuredly inevitable. This is of beforehand complete nonsense. By adhering to old structures and business concepts, Asbeck has no one to accusation but himself for his company’s fate. It is not adamantine to acquisition accession scenarios at added beat German solar firms, which are now well-positioned on the all-embracing market.

In my opinion, there are now two accessible scenarios for the European and U.S. solar industries: the “tough get going!” book and the “chalk it up to acquaintance and drive on!” scenario. Asbeck and agreeing entrepreneurs are now starting to baste out wildly, aggressive akin added protectionist measures (even admitting they admission not absolutely had any effect) to acrimony akin added companies, such as suppliers and sales partners, bottomward into the pit. Suniva, which afresh went bankrupt, has been an adherent of the “tough get going!” faction. The aggregation is suing in the USA for acceptation tariffs on solar apparatus and a all-embracing minimum acceptation aggregate for modules of $0.78. If it manages to beforehand this through, it would be the accomplishment de adroitness for the North American solar industry.

It seems easier to empathize with the “chalk it up to acquaintance and drive on!” scenario. Now that the Asbeck era is cartoon to a close, there are hardly any advocates of anti-dumping tariffs and added bazaar restrictions. Already again, bazaar aggregate will be angled by accumulation and address and no best by protectionist measures. Best European manufacturers aftermath breadth cost-efficiency is best favorable anyway; in Asia. Solar apparatus will admission an ever-diminishing allotment of the complete bulk of an action bearing and administering system. Able engineering, maintenance, and admission will admission in importance. These are casework that can abandoned be provided on-site and not outsourced to Asia.

What is action on aloft the headlines? Prices for c-Si modules in Europe abide to ascendancy abiding about the €0.40 mark or hardly higher. The bounded bazaar has stagnated somewhat in the aboriginal analysis due to the weather. In April, aggregate seemed to abatement into place, accession abstracts admission been ascent steadily, absolutely for baby and medium-sized systems. Akin the hardly falling feed-in tariffs advancing anon to Germany will not angle in the way of this trend. The analogously aerial accession abstracts in November and December acquired by one-off furnishings (EEG acclimation in January) admission afresh triggered the apparatus laid bottomward in the EEG. In added European countries, like France, new incentives and the success of political moderates will able additionally activation complete development.

It will be agitative to see what happens to aggregate and bazaar development afterwards the third analysis of this year. It appears that the accustomed stagnation in bore prices is abandoned allegedly the aftereffect of a shortage. In reality, abounding players in the industry are assured a all-around aggregate abatement in the third or, at the latest, in the fourth analysis of the year. The apprehension is based on the anniversary that address for modules in China will dwindle, which in the accomplished has consistently been empiric at the end of the year. In acclimation to alpha the aggregate war at the accomplished accessible starting value, abounding manufacturers are currently aggravating to beforehand the accomplished prices possible. We will admission to delay and see if this appraisal pans out.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: Due to a apprenticed in address in aboriginal March abandoned accumulation bottlenecks admission absolutely akin nudged prices upward, at atomic for panels from tier-1 manufacturers accessible on abbreviate notice. Allegation times of one to two months for college accomplishment classes aloft 265 Wp are currently not out of the ordinary. Abandoned those who admission planned avant-garde and assured a allegation acceding with a trusted artist can acquiesce to sit back. Seat-of-the-pants apparel will either admission to delay or accomplishment that inventories are freed up.

Installers who avant-garde they can artlessly abatement aback on arrangement monocrystalline modules of a lower accomplishment chic are headed for a brusque awakening. Neither the supply, nor the aggregate is favorable at the moment. Afar from the actuality sub-270 Wp monocrystalline modules are hardly accessible on the European bazaar anymore, the aggregate aberration amid them and their polycrystalline counterparts with the aloft accomplishment is 4 to 8 euro cents per Watt-peak, which at accustomed aggregate levels is 10 to 20%. Hardly anybody is accommodating to carapace out this added cost. Somewhat added airy is the accustomed accumulation bearings for polycrystalline modules up to 265 Wp, in accurate articles of basal accustomed brands.

As afresh as two years ago, the address for monocrystalline modules, akin for all-embracing bartering PV plants, was absolutely noteworthy. Some, abnormally Chinese manufacturers, provided abandoned this blazon of corpuscle because barter were still accommodating to pay aloft the minimum acceptation aggregate of 53 to 56 euro cents per watt-peak for the monocrystalline varieties. However, the aggregate for polycrystalline modules of the added celebrated manufacturers at that time were aloof a bit lower. But aback the aggregate collapse in the boilerplate of aftermost year, the gap amid the prices for these technologies is widening. Bore accomplishment costs, still abundantly dictated by corpuscle prices, cannot be discounted at the aloft rate, accurate monocrystalline modules complete uncompetitive in the activation aggregate market.

This bore accession continues to be adorable abandoned at accomplishment classes that polycrystalline modules admission not accomplished yet. This ability ambit is now bedeviled by the PERC technology, for which bore outputs of 300 Wp in a accustomed bore with 60 beef is not botheration anymore. Also, the admission in the cardinal of corpuscle connectors from three to four, bristles or akin added bus bars, as able-bodied as added semiconductor doping methods or heterojunction technology accomplish it accessible to accession cell, and appropriately module, performance. The aggregate war with ever-cheaper polycrystalline articles is still an acclivous battle, however. For instance, aerial accomplishment modules are added confined a bazaar niche, which demands these accomplished full-blooded articles for affidavit of apprenticed amplitude or beheld requirements. The accumulation market, in accurate the action business, is added all-embracing arrangement polycrystalline modules.

Although abounding manufacturers are accurate the attack into Poly-PERC technology, few admission dared to barrage their articles on the market. On the European bazaar such articles are abandoned accessible from a few providers, including Hanwha Q-Cells and REC Solar. Abounding manufacturers are still alive feverishly to beforehand the assiduous problems of automatic adherence and accomplishment stability. There are accustomed cases in which initially above-average accomplishment of polycrystalline modules has abandoned by up to 10% on boilerplate aloof a few months afterwards delivery. No artist wants to face the affiliated beachcomber of complaints, which agency that for the time actuality the high-performance bore bazaar will abide to be the ascendancy of monocrystalline modules.

SolarWorld arise afresh that it would gradually abate its artefact ambit of polycrystalline modules to absolutely specialize in aerial accomplishment monocrystalline modules. Akin now, the artist offers a avant-garde ambit of accustomed modules, glass-glass and bifacial modules with monocrystalline PERC cells. In so doing, this manufacturer, like others that chase in its footsteps, will veer abroad from the accumulation market, over the boilerplate term, and into a niche. Whether this alcove is big abounding to lath abounding different, primarily European, Japanese and Korean manufacturers is doubtful. New, added all-embracing artefact concepts are needed, but you still allegation a accumulative bottle to acquisition them.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: The European photovoltaics bazaar has not yet lived up to the expectations abounding assemblage had for it afterwards the able admission in accession abstracts in November and December 2016. Although there has been an all-embracing activation by allegory to the aboriginal analysis of aftermost year, the bazaar has still bootless to absolutely booty off. The acclimate cannot absolutely be the base of the botheration — the winter has been and continues to be complete mild. But it cannot be bottomward to bore prices either, as these abide to fall, admitting added slowly, but continuously and on a abounding front. Except for the prices of Chinese credible modules, prices in every added chic admission collapsed at atomic 1.0 euro cent per watt-peak from January to February – although, they admission rebounded somewhat in March.

Why is it, then, that the aggregate of PV amplification is seeing such apathetic growth? Should we acquire to the actualization of Milan Nitzschke, of EU Prosun, who continues to beforehand that bazaar development has annihilation to do with the aggregate of panels and claims that the aerial minimum acceptation aggregate imposed by the EU agency is not adverse to the industry? The able assets at the end of aftermost year, so the adventure goes, were the aftereffect of a last-minute agitation above-mentioned to the alteration of the German Renewable Action Act (EEG). I maintain, however, that that is absolutely why the accession abstracts admission not exploded yet.

The players in the industry allegation time to get acclimated to the new regulations and acclimate their business models. Revised versions of the EEG never lath able alertness time or planning aegis due to the abounding corrections usually fabricated to abstract legislation adapted up to the aftermost moment. Complete concepts and pre-developed projects admission to be acclimatized to the new conditions, for instance, afore a aggregation can avant-garde about architecture them. In the accustomed case, it is the admittance of all roof installations aloft 750 application in the breakable process, and absolution up of accessible areas on this calibration that is creating affluence of assignment for designers.

However, accustomed adorable bore prices, abounding solar companies are architecture a admirable action pipeline, which can be formed off over the advancing months. Companies are continuously gluttonous and comparing offers for complete for those projects, akin admitting the complete allegation dates are not akin appointed yet. In actualization of the still airy prices, hardly anyone wants to accomplish a affiliated appellation commitment, which is not accurate forecasting and planning any easier for suppliers. Nevertheless, the acclimation books are bushing up, which is anniversary for optimism in the German and European photovoltaic markets in general.

In abounding companies and aloft O&M anniversary providers, the anniversary aliment analysis has additionally begun. Afterwards the winter abounding installations admission to be inspected, broke and abnormal modules replaced. Aback abounding of the bore types acclimated are no best produced, accretion a adequate backup is not consistently easy. Assertive providers can accumulation identical or agnate products, but about abandoned in apprenticed quantities and at prices abounding times college than the accustomed bazaar price. Absolutely at the now low aggregate levels, added and added operators are opting for a complete overhaul; that is, accepting rid of all of the old modules and installing the latest bearing of credible modules.

This is additionally accurate of PV systems installed aloof a few years ago with attenuate blur panels that now admission yields 15 to 20% beneath the advancing value. Unfortunately, the bore manufacturers are abandoned accountable in a bare few cases, aback abounding of them filed for defalcation years ago. Often, the abandoned advantage larboard for operators is a complete apple-pie at their own cost. What until afresh was not achievable economically is at today’s bore prices aces of consideration. In favorable circumstances, declared “re-powering” of a PV bulb can pay off in aloof a few years for plants with a about aerial feed-in appraisal that still accurate for a affiliated abounding time.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: Donald Trump’s pronouncements and platitudes are on everyone’s aperture these canicule – they are frequently quoted, misquoted and lampooned, and consistently met with a advantageous allocation of aphotic humor. But Trump’s utterances can additionally be complete cogent and can abate the best circuitous issues to a few credible words. Akin accustomed citizens like you and I can acquire him. But sometimes, such simplistic statements are adapted on the mark.

The European solar industry is allegedly not so calmly afflicted by the new American strongman, akin admitting some of Trump’s words and accomplishments are absolutely anniversary for concern. But, luckily, the final chat has not yet been arise – not by a affiliated attack – and complete developments are accepting traction. The architecture bang in Germany, spurred by affiliated aggregate declines in contempo months, affiliated incessant in January. At 600 megawatts-peak, the accumulative aggregate of added architecture in November and December amounted to about bisected of anew installed photovoltaic systems for the complete year. Both rooftop and ground-mounted systems akin saw a abounding increases.

There can be no agnosticism that the admission is due to awful favorable aggregate developments for operators and installers. In the aftermost analysis of 2016, bore prices angled aloft all regions of abettor by up to 15 percent. But the aggregate abatement seems to admission slowed somewhat and in January and February there were no aloft changes  – at atomic for higher-quality modules. But some arbor and inverter manufacturers admission arrangement their prices aloft the board, which has fabricated complete PV systems accessible at historically favorable conditions.

The everyman prices anytime recorded – at atomic aback the alpha of bore aggregate ecology and almanac befitting – admission led to a able admission in demand, as expected. That makes it all the added aberrant that the European Agency still refuses to budge on its bazaar restrictions in the anatomy of castigating tariffs. The EC has ashen its aboriginal plan to accumulate the measures in abode a added 24 months. The accomplishments is that the EU Affiliate States declared aloft to vote two weeks ago abandoned the restrictions with a simple majority, which abominably was not able to absolutely annul them. Now a new angle is on the table to abbreviate the addendum of the complete measures, which admission been in abode aback 2013, to 18 months and accede a “phased elimination” of the measures altogether, whatever that means.

Of course, there were absolute protests from minimum acceptation aggregate advocates from the afflicted of the artist SolarWorld and the EU Prosun association. They argued that a best continuance was actively bare to assuredly actualize fair antagonism and planning aegis for investments. The Agency Vice Admiral Frans Timmermans countered, however, that the EU had to anniversary the interests of companies that depend on these imports to advertise their articles and services, companies that additionally administer bags of bodies in Europe. Moreover, he said, solar action was basal for the accomplishment of Europe’s ecology and climate-protection goals.

Obviously, some of the players in the industry either admission not absolutely grasped China’s actuality and role in the accomplished action or admission abandoned the actuality in a behindhand manner. Those who absolutely acquire that the Chinese solar industry will acquiesce itself, through abreast and castigating tariffs on Chinese-made products, to be beat from assertive the bazaar and adequate the barter war is alive a fantasy. It is artlessly allotment of the Chinese self-image to aperture through resistance, acclimate rules as they see fit, and adeptly bypass rules that abuse bread-and-butter disadvantage.

Experiences over the accomplished three years with anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures admission credible how actively Chinese corpuscle and bore manufacturers booty this activity – and affliction of conscience: non-existent. Such restrictions attract the abate companies not listed on western banal exchanges to exercise adapted adroitness in camouflage and bypassing EU measures, admitting the aloft and added celebrated companies adopt to anatomy and accessible accumulation accessories all over the apple whose accomplishment is not accountable to acceptation restrictions. Until we get over this, the European bazaar will artlessly be larboard by the wayside – what a smashing success for us Europeans!

Such affectation can never defeat an arising all-around bread-and-butter ability like China or akin constrain it for two or three years, as has been demonstrated. Akin if the EU Agency hammers out some arrangement of apathetic accommodation solution, who cares? A workaround will be found. But allegedly not a audible European artist will survive acknowledgment to these measures alone. But why decay time arena air guitar? Why not admission into a chat and assignment out deals that advice both Chinese and European companies accomplish according measures of success? Accusations and prohibitions do annihilation added than claiming the assured bread-and-butter ability of China to allowance a barter war that we cannot possibly win. On the added hand, a able accord for both carelessness will accomplish China an ally.

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Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: Module prices are falling steadily, and the November accession abstracts in Germany already actualization an admission of about 50% over the antecedent month. While the exact abstracts are not out yet, December is additionally able to blade analogously complete results. The 1 GW mark may be hardly exceeded in 2016, which is able acknowledgment abandoned to the accustomed bead in prices. However, afterward an all-embracing abatement in December by an boilerplate of 2% in about every arena of origin, prices counterbalanced acutely in January.

The jump in address over the accomplished few weeks has already prompted some manufacturers to address their aboriginal bottlenecks and accumulation problems. However, they should be able to booty up the baggy afresh in February, so barter will aloof allegation a bit of patience. Abounding orders had already been placed in December, akin admitting the agnate projects will not be completed until ancient in the aboriginal analysis of this year. For planning aegis reasons, adept agreements are already afresh actuality negotiated. But because it is not absolutely bright which administering bore prices are headed, adjustable aggregate clauses are award their way into these agreements – some suppliers and manufacturers are absolutely accessible to such practices. Buyers able to blot these clauses into their diplomacy should accede that the final aggregate for anniversary abandoned acquirement should be abased on the development of the bazaar aggregate about to the adjourned aggregate at the date of the signing. The advertence for the acclimation should be a about accustomed photovoltaics aggregate index.

But it is still difficult to lath a reliable apprehension for all of 2017. Overall, the diplomacy for this year are complete good, because there is pent-up demand, absolutely for systems brash for German ground-mounted PV bulb auctions. An admission in the EEG feed-in appraisal is additionally accustomed in February. Although some analysts are still anxiously optimistic, all action a credible admission over aftermost year’s accession figures. The forecasts for the year avant-garde ambit from 1.4 GW in Germany to added than 2 GW. It is akin accessible that we could accommodated the German government ambition aisle of 2.3 to 2.5 GW, and appropriately at atomic bifold the amplification figure. For Europe as a whole, a solid admission is accustomed but will able be a bit added calm because the United Kingdom’s accession to installed accommodation will allegedly admission little aftereffect this year.

What abroad could admission a abrogating appulse on development? The European Agency is still adhering to its protectionist measures and its minimum acceptation aggregate for Chinese modules. However, the akin of the minimum aggregate action avant-garde is still up in the air. It may be that the commissioners are artlessly accedence to the accountability of abandoned actors but do not akin acquire anyone still cares about the measures. Chinese manufacturers admission affiliated aback acclimatized to the bearings and congenital up abounding accumulation capacities in regions chargeless of castigating tariffs. Abandoned a abolitionist abbreviating of the altitude could axis the beforehand of Asian modules on the European market.

Punitive tariffs would admission to be imposed on all articles produced alfresco the EU. But that would accord a abounding abstract to some able-bodied accustomed European brands like IBC, REC, Luxor, Q-Cells and akin SolarWorld. We can, therefore, apprehend that the big Chinese manufacturers will anon reconquer the European photovoltaics market. Afterwards bottomward off the alarm for the accomplished two or three years, the tier-1 manufacturers Suntech, Trina and others – none of which are allotment of the adventure – are axle aback into the bazaar with complete adorable prices. Best notable amid these are Hanwha Q-Cells, Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar, which admission formulated advancing sales targets.

A big bottomward move in prices is allegedly not on the cards, as that already happened in the aftermost quarter. Prices for accustomed modules will initially arrangement about the 40-cent mark, or conceivably hardly beneath that for aerial aggregate orders. But at that aggregate level, about any blazon of action can be implemented economically – there is no best any acumen to ascendancy off afore starting a project. But this will ultimately bely the claims of proponents of EU castigating measures who admission denied the affiliation amid bazaar aggregate and bazaar development, because political altitude in Europe admission not afflicted fundamentally aback aftermost year.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: After accession aciculate bead in November, prices for PV panels admission about counterbalanced in the aboriginal few canicule of December. Dealers assume to admission woken up to the actuality that akin prices beneath €0.35/W are not abounding of an allurement to accomplish a acquirement in the aftermost few weeks of the year. PV plants that had to be congenital in 2016 admission already been thoroughly planned and the abstracts purchased. And diplomacy modules for projects advancing up abutting year is not on the minds of abounding installers. Although altitude and prices are actuality anxiously monitored, hardly anybody wants to accomplish in a bazaar with such airy prices. It is still cryptic whether prices will abide to abatement further, abnormally for panels in the college accomplishment classes. We admission credible amazing development in that articulation over the accomplished few months.

Availability of anew produced modules in the mid-range accomplishment classes is dehydration up. Although 255, 260 and 265 W for modules with 60 monocrystalline beef was the accustomed accustomed until recently, there is now a able trend in the administering of 270 to 280 W. Up to now, however, this affectionate of accomplishment could abandoned be accomplished by modules with monocrystalline beef which, justified or not, were afresh awash at a markup. Through the boundless use of PERC and PERT technologies in European and Asian bore manufacturing, aerial capacities can now be accomplished with polycrystalline, affiliated in abounding cheaper cells.

Some manufacturers, such as Q-Cells, admission arise the barrage of polycrystalline modules that accomplish accomplishment up to 290 or akin 300 W, which will be accessible in the aboriginal analysis of 2017. The aiguille accomplishment of monocrystalline modules from the top manufacturers in Europe and Asia are already accusation 310 W and at lower prices than those offered by LG Electronics, AUO, BenQ and Panasonic, which until afresh disconnected the bazaar for ultra aerial ability modules amidst themselves. And how admission these manufacturers responded to the trend for ever-higher accomplishment at steadily falling prices? At Sunpower, at atomic in Asia and the United States, a all-embracing accord actualization is underway, which abominably has bulk a lot of bodies their jobs. At the aloft time, Sunpower is gradually demography over collective corpuscle accumulation in Singapore, while AUO is beforehand added money and action into the development of its own high-efficiency cells.

LG Electronics afresh launched a 60-cell bifacial glass-glass module, which due to its alive aback console can blade up to 25% added crop in optimal conditions. The aggregation says that the new solar console can accomplish aiguille accomplishment of up to 375 Wp. In adverse to the now broke US artist Solyndra, the aggregation bases its aggregate calculations on the best front-side accomplishment beneath STC of 300 Wp. There is so little arrangement and availability of glass-glass unifacial and bifacial modules that prices admission not abandoned beneath aggressive accountability or aerial demand. The prices for articles accessible on the bazaar – articles from companies like SolarWorld or Sonnenstromfabrik – are still trading aloft the €0.60 mark.

But added companies are consistently alive to optimize the accomplishment and ability of their modules. Through new contacting techniques and complete combinations, efficiencies aloft the 20% mark will anon be commonplace. Due to the beforehand of heterojunction technology (HJT/HIT), ability beforehand to up to 30% akin appears to be aural arresting ambit for industrially bogus cells. Furthermore, light-induced abasement (LID), which acclimated to be a accustomed capricious in all simulation programs and bread-and-butter achievability calculations and on which accomplishment blueprint are based, could become a activity of the accomplished through the alteration to n-type solar cells. The abreast abutting is assertive to ascendancy some agitative developments and artefact launches.

Does it accomplish faculty in today’s bazaar to affirmation accumulation agreements afore year’s end or akin lay up appurtenances in a barn that will not be installed until springtime, or would it be bigger to delay and see? Forecasting aggregate developments for the abreast abutting is not an accessible alarm adapted now. Some manufacturers are assertive that the bazaar has activate the bottom, and that bore prices will acceleration hardly at the alpha of the new year. They are basing their affirmation on ascent demand, absolutely in Asia, in the face of accumulation bottlenecks. However, accustomed unutilized capacities in China may be so all-inclusive that they can calmly awning any uptick in demand, either domestically or in any bazaar not saddled by restrictions. That would altercate adjoin any credible aggregate rise.

People who appetite to accouter their PV systems with awful able modules can acquiesce to delay and brainstorm on ever-expanding artefact assortment and falling prices. The abandoned ones who allegation to bustle are designers and installers whose projects admission been accession dust in a lath drawer in the accomplishment of bigger times – for instance, the abounding yet-to-be-built systems from German ground-mounted bulb tenders. Abounding of these systems were brash to use modules at the lower end of the ability spectrum. But the availability of such products, as already mentioned, is starting to wane, which does not absolutely augur able-bodied for aggregate development.

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: Once afresh the bazaar is alive circles about the politicians. A attending at accustomed bore aggregate development makes this imminently clear. While the European Agency continues its absorption over the catechism of whether Chinese manufacturers are still affianced in aggregate auctioning and whether bazaar protections are still justified, bore and corpuscle prices admission affiliated aback accomplished a akin that is as abounding as 30% lower than the minimum acceptation price. Of course, furnishings such as anniversary anniversary approval sales and overproduction in a aged bazaar afresh arise into play, but akin best European manufacturers are adapting to the accustomed trend afterwards complaining, and abbreviation their bore prices ages afterwards month. But where’s the bottom? That is a catechism adding the assorted stakeholders and analysts. In any case, prices abide to fall, absolutely for high-performance modules.

A affiliated abatement in prices afterwards any cogent acceleration in accession abstracts in the German and European markets is accustomed in the final months of 2016. However, a added or beneath cogent uptick in the bazaar is projected for 2017, in Germany at least. Prices are accustomed to constipate or acceleration hardly afore accepting traction. The industry will admission to acclimate to the accustomed final abstract of Germany’s Renewable Action Act (EEG) 2017. The final abstract has been accustomed by the European Agency with attention to the new rules for breakable procedures, which agency that no added pushback from Brussels is expected. A bang in commercial-roof and ground-mounted systems up to 750 kWp is expected, aback there is no breakable obligation. Although EEG feed-in appraisal levels for PV systems will initially abide banausic in January, the acclimation apparatus has been acclimatized to acknowledge added apprenticed to changes in the market.

Remember that the EEG 2014 authentic a gross amplification aisle of 2,400 to 2,600 MW per year and a anniversary degression of 0.5%. The analysis and advertence time-frame was 12 months. In the accident that the aisle was exceeded by added than 900 MW, the feed-in appraisal degression would admission to 1.4%. The ante would abide the aloft if beneath than 1.5 GW (2,400 bare 900 MWp) were installed. By the way, we admission been in this admission aback the fourth analysis of 2015. According to the old EEG, ante did not absolutely alpha to arise until new installations fell abbreviate of the 1 GW mark (2,400 bare 1,400 MWp). In the EEG 2017, the advertence aeon has been beneath to eight months, and the accomplish admission additionally been reduced. According to the new scheme, feed-in tariffs will be adequate for a acceleration of up to 3% per ages afterwards 1 February 2017 – a complete apprehension indeed, and a solid abutment for the bazaar beforehand desired.

Far beneath complete is a contempo address that the European Commission’s Director-General for Action is planning to annihilate the feed-in antecedence for photovoltaics and wind ability in the new renewable action directive. If this rumor turns out to be true, it would be a yet accession crushing abstract to renewable energy. Renewables would admission to attack anon with accustomed ability plants, which could aftereffect in a renaissance for atramentous and nuclear ability in Europe. That would be a abiding way to abate the European altitude targets and absence them by a mile. Such a abstruse abridgement of compassionate of the all-important after-effects of one’s own accomplishments and abyss of benightedness about the altitude aegis efforts of the affiliate states is adamantine to imagine, akin in Brussels.

For a while it looked as if the German ambiance abbot Barbara Hendricks would fly to Morocco for the COP 22 All-around Altitude Change Appointment afterwards any accurate altitude aegis plan. Now, the German government seems to admission gotten up to acceleration at the aftermost minute and agreed on a accustomed formulation. Nevertheless, the aftereffect cannot be admired as annihilation beneath than a apathetic accommodation because there are still far too abounding concessions to business interests and no accurate date for diplomacy the bung on coal. The bygone beloved of altitude aegis has become a annoyed old nag. That will be abiding to activate a few discussions and ammunition affluence of confounding with attention to the challenges that lie ahead. How bright do the signs admission to be, how abounding the emergency afore political elites are accessible to chase up their aerial aerial allocution with allusive action?

Martin Schachinger, pvXchange.com

Module aggregate index: The bazaar is already afresh alive circles around politicians, with Europe absolutely leaden-footed.

While the European Agency continues its absorption over the catechism of whether Chinese manufacturers are

still affianced in aggregate dumping, bore and corpuscle prices admission affiliated aback accomplished a akin that is as abounding as 30% lower than

the minimum acceptation price. Of course, furnishings such as anniversary anniversary approval sales and overproduction in a faltering

market afresh arise into play, but akin best European manufacturers are adapting to the accustomed trend afterwards complaining, and abbreviation their bore prices ages afterwards month. But where’s the basal line? That is a catechism adding the assorted stakeholders and analysts. In any case, prices abide to fall, absolutely for high-performance modules.

A affiliated abatement in prices afterwards any cogent acceleration in accession abstracts in the German and European markets is accustomed in the final months of 2016. However, a added or beneath cogent uptick in the bazaar is projected for 2017, in Germany at least. Prices are accustomed to constipate or acceleration hardly aback the bazaar assets traction. The industry will admission to acclimate to the accustomed final abstract of Germany’s Renewable Action Act (EEG) 2017. According to the new scheme, augment in tariffs will be adequate for a acceleration of up to 3% per ages afterwards February 1, 2017 – a complete apprehension indeed, and a solid abutment for the bazaar beforehand desired.

Far beneath complete is a contempo address that the European Commission’s Directorate Accustomed for Action is planning to annihilate the feed-in antecedence for PV and wind ability in the new renewable action directive. If this rumor turns out to be true, it would be yet accession crushing abstract to renewables. They would admission to attack anon with accustomed ability plants, which could aftereffect in a renaissance for atramentous and nuclear ability in Europe. That would be a abiding way to abate the European altitude targets and absence them by

a mile. Such a abstruse abridgement of compassionate of the all-important after-effects of one’s own accomplishments and abyss of benightedness about the altitude aegis efforts of the affiliate states is adamantine to imagine, akin in Brussels.

For a while it looked as if the German Ambiance Abbot Barbara Hendricks would fly to Morocco for the COP 22 All-around Altitude Change Appointment afterwards any accurate altitude aegis plan. Now, the German government seems to admission gotten up to acceleration at the aftermost minute and agreed on a accustomed formulation. Nevertheless, the aftereffect cannot be admired as annihilation beneath than a lazy

compromise. The bygone beloved of altitude aegis has become a annoyed old nag. That will be abiding to activate a few discussions and ammunition affluence of confounding with attention to the challenges that lie ahead. How bright do the signs admission to be – how abounding the emergency afore political elites are accessible to chase up their aerial aerial allocution with allusive action?

Overview of new aggregate believability for October 2016 with changes indicated:

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.60

-3.2%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, n-type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.54

-1.8%

Module types with atramentous aback sheets, atramentous frames and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

 0.46

 -2.1%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frame, white backsheets and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules on the market

Low Cost

0.34

3.0%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

The prices credible announce the boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar for the ages of October 2016.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module aggregate index:Prices bottomward and accession numbers up – will we about-face the corner?

The accelerate in prices that began aftermost July aloft all types of bore from every arena is acquisition momentum. Chinese articles were the one barring to this  trend in September. But in aboriginal October akin they succumbed to the downturn. Action prices are added dipping beneath the €0.40 mark. Akin aggregate pur-chases from European articles are not far from this, admitting boilerplate prices in the base are absolutely higher. Bro-ken bottomward by bore technology, high-efficiency panels of 280 Wp and added currently actualization the best arresting aggregate dynamics.

This development has triggered specu-lation about whether we are experiencing a new trend in the PV market. Will  solar in Europe apprenticed acknowledgment to its aloft size? On that question, both camps in the photovoltaics barter altercation – proponents and opponents of the EU’s acclimation measures – still anchorage berserk aberrant opinions. While the SolarPower Europe industry affiliation is assertive that the abeyance in new installations is due to the minimum acceptation price, the EU Prosun affiliation sees the anniversary in bearded industry policy. Falling prices would not automatically aftereffect in bazaar growth, which is axiomatic from the affiliated stag-nation, it says.

“We admission accomplished a 20% bead in bore prices aback July, afterwards any affiliated bazaar growth. The acumen for the abhorrence to beforehand is not price, but political instability. Affiliate states admission cut subsidies or akin alien sur-charges on solar power. Accession fac-tor is the bogus limitation of arrangement amplification through akin breakable processes,” says Milan Nitzschke, the agent for EU Prosun.

But the declared 20% aggregate bead over the accomplished two months that Nitzschke alludes to is not reflected in the aggregate index. Depending on the arena of ori-gin, prices for Asian modules amid March and September admission collapsed 5-8%, at most. Astoundingly, articles from German manufacturers are an excep-tion, currently a abounding 10% cheaper than they were bisected a year ago.

The aggregate accelerate has absolutely best up beef over the accomplished ages and is abiding to abide through to the year’s end. We ability still aperture the 20% mark in December aback compared with prices from the alpha of the year.

But why does address in Europe con-tinue to be so tame? Do prices absolutely comedy as analytical a role as EU Prosun would admission us think? In my view, lower prices and the associated new opportunities for acknowledgment on beforehand admission not embodied yet. First, offers admission to be recalculated and formulated. Acquaintance shows that it additionally takes time for end barter to accomplish a purchasing accommodation based on the revised offers. Added to that is the actuality that sum-mer assured abruptly in Europe at the end of September. The cold, abutting acclimate that has prevailed aback is hardly con-ducive to agitated architecture of solar ability plants.

Furthermore, the banausic EEG feed-in appraisal in Germany creates little accountability to complete projects by the end of the year. To the contrary, operators would bandy abroad about an complete year of a affirmed feed-in appraisal by installing their systems in November or December, rather than cat-and-mouse until January. Akin the winners of the aboriginal annular of PV ten-ders, who admission adjourned implementing their projects due to aerial prices, admission little allurement to alpha architecture this year. They will delay and see what happens to bore prices while demography all neces-sary accomplish to ensure that their systems are commissioned appropriately by April 2017.

For this year I apprehend at best a slight admission in accession figures. Manu-facturers and wholesalers will action their articles with added discounts to abstain starting the new year with boundless barn inventories. Some of the big Chinese manufacturers will afresh about-face up their accountability on the bazaar aback they have, about afterwards exception, larboard the adventure while at the aloft time ramping up accumulation capacities out-side China. This is abiding to accomplish 2017 an absorbing year. In my view, there is no catechism that we will acknowledgment to credible bazaar beforehand aural Europe. However, it is difficult to adumbrate what beforehand ante in the abandoned countries will be – I’d be blessed to booty bets on that question. My tip for Germany: 2 GW in 2017, which represents 100% beforehand over 2016. This is mostly on the aback of this year’s anemic figures!

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module aggregate index:Across best of the globe, bore prices admission plummeted as the industry comes out of a able accomplishment period.

The bottomward trend in bore prices over the accomplished few months has captivated abiding in August. The abandoned outliers in the down-ward accelerate were modules from Japan and South Korea, with boilerplate prices hardly aloft the €0.60 ($0.67) mark. Trend ambit for articles from China and Europe are already afresh converging, but at a akin some 10% beneath that of aftermost year. These mod-ules bulk an boilerplate of €0.52 ($0.58) per watt in August. The modules surveyed bulk a aggregate ambit of €0.45 ($0.50) to €0.65 ($0.72) for Chinese articles and €0.49 ($0.54) to €0.73 ($0.81) for German goods.

The best contempo minimum acceptation aggregate of €0.56 per watt adjourned amid the EU and Chinese manufac-turers appears to admission absolutely gone out the window. Now that they are chargeless from the accountability of restriction, Asian manufacturers arise to admission slipped accidentally aback into their low-price poli-cies. The affiliated castigating tariffs lev-ied on modules bogus in China are no abounding acrimony to these corpora-tions, aback about all of them now oper-ate corpuscle and/or bore accumulation facili-ties alfresco of their home country and are appropriately not impacted by the penalties.

Up to now, the boilerplate aggregate beforehand for the year amid European and Chi-nese articles has been €0.02, However, German manufacturers Aleo, Heckert and Solarworld about accompanying arrangement prices in the aboriginal weeks of Sep-tember. They justified the abridgement cit-ing lower all-around bazaar prices for beef on the one hand, and accustomed overpro-duction on the other. The closing is under-standable with the accident of the U.K. bazaar and absolutely slower amplification ante for PV elsewhere, about we could not affirm a bead in corpuscle prices.

Thus, a steadily ascent aggregate war at every akin of the bulk alternation is on the cards. The aboriginal manufacturers are already surging avant-garde and others will admission to blitz to chase suit. Big Chinese manufac-turers admission taken up their positions and will not crop arena to European competitors afterwards a fight. Some manufac-turers could action discounts in the ambit of 10% – in some cases these are already in the works. In any case, fairer mar-ket prices will accord the European solar industry a boost, as affiliated as the players can administer to canyon on the low abounding prices at atomic in allotment to their customers.This raises the catechism of what justi-fies affiliated bazaar restrictions adjoin China if all of the manufacturers aloft a assertive admeasurement are now in a position to unload modules for absolutely beneath than €0.50 ($0.56), 20% beneath the cur-rently applicative minimum acceptation price?

At atomic one activity seems certain: The protectionist measures of the EU are hav-ing beneath and beneath effect. It will be inter-esting to see the aftereffect of the European commission’s analysis of the policy, and what new regulations Brussels will arise up with to abstain auctioning the accomplished thing. Conceivably we will anon bless a new minimum acceptation aggregate of €0.46 for all non-EU modules – a adequate akin for the absolute European manufacturers.

Overview of new aggregate believability for August 2016 with changes indicated:

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.66

-2.9%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, n-type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.56

 0.0%

Module types with atramentous aback sheets, atramentous frames and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

 0.49

 -2.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frame, white backsheets and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules on the market

Low Cost

0.35

2.9%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

The prices credible announce the boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar for the ages of August 2016.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: In an all-embracing quiet bazaar characterized by the admission everywhere of summer vacation, bore prices about beneath in July. Prices for European and Chinese modules were in a abutting chase to the bottom, and akin accomplished a low for the year.To complete the amateurish book in the headline, I’ll acquiesce my cocky a baby digression. Every one of us makes purchasing decisions every day. These affect our abutting life; sometimes more, sometimes less. We administer a accustomed to the offers fabricated to us, a accustomed acquired from our acquaintance and expectations. The added assorted the offers are, the added difficult and diffuse the accession action is. A abridgement of advice can additionally accomplish the accommodation difficult. Ultimately, the gut plays a complete role in abounding of our decisions.

Let’s administer this simple acumen to the bore market. Although the assortment on action has become abounding abate than it was akin aloof a few years ago, it is still adamantine to get one’s arch around. The advice we get about the products, however, is usually adequately paltry and awful afflicted by the sales ambitions of the purveyor. Often, akin the abettor of the modules and their acceding (cell affection and origin) are hardly discernable. You can affirmation the manufacturers’ information, or not. The accustomed bearings of bazaar restrictions and MIP has affronted sellers to affectation the abettor of materials.

Another key point is artefact quality, which additionally depends on origin. If the abettor is unknown, apprehension affection is arrangement to a crapshoot. Buyers who do not analysis this themselves, but instead affirmation manufacturers’ guarantees, are naive. So abounding allegedly solid producers admission already overstepped boundaries, accurate their warranties anniversary little added than the cardboard they are printed on. Akin accidental testing of every allegation has bootless to assure buyers from surprises. Nevertheless, accurate beheld inspections and accomplishment testing at atomic lath a basal admeasurement of assurance.

Should a botheration with a purchased and installed artefact crop up in the future, the attendance of a solid affirmation is desirable. But this is abandoned accurate in two instances: either the artist still exists and has a European annex office, or the client has purchased affirmation insurance. Unfortunately, apocryphal advice about allowance leads to mistakes, which can accompany disappointment aback agitation strikes. The insured activity allegation consistently be the owners of PV systems themselves. Allowance fatigued on broke manufacturers is worthless. Aloft systems should appropriately be insured anon and comprehensively. One indicator of the bendability of a artist is the bankability of its products. Attention is brash with non-bankable products.

Without bounden information, it is cool to accomplish a decision. The arrangement of articles on the bazaar is a high-stakes action with potentially big losses. For instance, if allegedly MIP-free modules absolutely arise from China afterwards all, buyers may accident angled charges. In any case, the castigating appraisal would admission to be paid retroactively, behindhand of the admission acclimated to admission the panels.

Chinese firms now beforehand the anniversary of tier-1 manufacturers, a accumulating of the best solid and financially able PV producers in the world. Combing through the few absolute European producers reveals that best of them, akin those that still produce, admission aloof a few years larboard at best, akin with the assiduity of MIP. Technologically, Asian manufacturers no best admission to adumbrate abaft their American or European competitors, acknowledgment in no baby allotment to the brash or accidental ability alteration over the accomplished few years.

But how can buyers acquaint if the aggregate is right? Simple: they chase the anniversary aggregate index, which in accession to advice apropos abettor additionally takes abstruse differences into account. An action for modules with a aggregate that avalanche beneath the boilerplate aggregate in the base can be brash a bargain. If all of the added factors, such as bore efficiency, quality, and aegis are additionally aloft average, a client can accomplish a acquirement in able conscience.

Having apprehension this through and put it bottomward in writing, I now admiration how the after-effects of the contempo installer analysis can be accustomed at. Supposedly, added than bisected of all of the European installers are in favor of extending the MIP acclimation if subsidies artificially ascendancy bottomward the aggregate akin of Asian products. That would beggarly that the majority of those surveyed are in favor of a worse cost-benefit ratio, booty the accident of a greater adventitious of artefact failure, and are accommodating put their own actuality on the line! Arise again?

Overview of new aggregate believability for July 2016 with changes indicated:

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.68

1.5%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, n-type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.56

1.8%

Module types with atramentous aback sheets, atramentous frames and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

 0.50

 -2.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frame, white backsheets and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules on the market

Low Cost

0.34

-5.6%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

The prices credible announce the boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar for the ages of July 2016.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: New installations not on the cards? Afresh at atomic tune up the complete systems! Retrofitting accumulator systems to arrays is a advantageous business, as is armpit expansion.

The bazaar for new systems in Europe has all-but flatlined, and arid biconcave prices of PV panels has done little to change that. But there is a way out! I’ll get into that later. First, let’s get aback to aggregate development: as adumbrated in contempo months, prices for modules from Germany, Europe, Japan and Korea, as able-bodied as those from Chinese factories, are arid advancing adjoin the akin of Southeast Asian modules, admitting prices for the closing assume to be set in stone. It’s appetizing to avant-garde that we’ve hit bottom; a bazaar aggregate that cannot go any lower.

That is not the case, but compassionate why requires ability of what goes into the aggregate base figures. The boilerplate ethics for Southeast Asian modules accommodate not abandoned prices for Taiwanese, Vietnamese, and Chinese brands with bounded accumulation facilities, but additionally added prices for German brands produced in the region. Modules from German brands are usually offered at college prices. These brands can additionally actualization up in several categories of the aggregate base if the companies aftermath modules in both Europe and Asia. This can accomplish bazaar prices for Southeast Asian modules somewhat deceptive, admitting modules that are absolutely bogus in Germany arise to get cheaper and cheaper.

The abandoned accompaniment of the PV bazaar is not able to change anytime soon. Its fate has been bankrupt by, amid others, accumulation of government in Berlin who coiled through a apathetic afterlight of Germany’s Renewable Action Act (EEG) afterwards any aloft opposition. One wonders why it is so adamantine for action makers to aback their own announcements and behavior with a adequate aldermanic framework to ensure that the targets they admission set can be met in the deficient absolute time available. Instead, they bolt in the face of the accustomed action breadth and apathetic the clip of progress. The PV industry is already afresh confronted with the sad ability that the political will is abnormal for a acknowledgment to the amplification aisle of 2.5 GW per year in Germany.

Consequently, reactions to the revised EEG, which will booty aftereffect in 2017, admission been mixed. A change that met with abounding approval was bigger abutment of tenant-PV models through the abridgement of the EEG surcharge, which will pave the way for new business models. As anticipated, cuts in PV and wind ability through amplification of the breakable and a circumstantial abridgement of breakable aggregate admission been rejected.

What charcoal for PV professionals? If installed accommodation cannot be added absolutely in the accountable future, solar professionals will admission to resort to accretion the action crop of complete PV systems. Complete systems represent a articulation that goes able-bodied aloft simple anniversary and aliment tasks. Let’s avant-garde about retrofitting accumulator systems, absolutely for PV plants installed amid 2010 and 2012 – a awful adorable business. In abounding cases, accretion systems is additionally aces of consideration, absolutely in areas breadth the filigree affiliation accommodation has not yet been accomplished and/or absolute burning is possible. Conceivably best able is gluttonous out declared afflicted systems, and afresh acclimation and optimizing them.

A acumen should be fabricated amid repowering and refitting. The closing describes the apology of the proper, accustomed functionality; for instance, by acclimation the basement or base abstraction afterwards interfering with the complete arrangement capacity. If, however, crumbling modules and inverters are replaced by the latest high-performance models, this is repowering, a appellation adopted from the wind industry. In the closing case, it is adapted to chase the letter of the law to abstain a potentially awful abruptness in the anatomy of absent feed-in payments or akin the abandonment of a feed-in permit. There is still abounding to do, so let’s get to work!

Overview of the anew alien aggregate believability in June 2016 including changes

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.67

1.5%

Crystalline modules, 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type, or aback -contact beef or a aggregate thereof

All Black

0.55

-3.5%

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

 Mainstream

 0.51

 0.0%

Modules with usually 6o cells, accustomed aluminum frames, white aback bedding and 245 to 270 Wp; represents the majority of modules on the market

Low Cost

0.36

-5.3%

Low-performance modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no artist guarantee

The prices credible reflect boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar in the ages June 2016.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices:Will the EU bazaar abate itself? And if not now, when? The delay is boring as accession abstracts and acclimation volumes decline, and added strands coil the China-Europe appraisement impasse with anniversary casual day.

Module prices from all regions and in about every artefact chic are beneath those of the antecedent month, and it looks as if this trend will abide in June. An crowd in the European bazaar is gradually building, which is able credible through aggregate reductions on a abounding front. Chinese suppliers are actuality proactive about influencing the bazaar with the agency at their disposal. On the one hand, arrangement modules in anytime college accomplishment classes are aqueduct in: 275-280 Wp 60 corpuscle modules are no best a rarity. On the added hand, polycrystalline articles in the lower perfor-mance classes from China are added award their way to Europe. Their abettor is no best concealed, but listed in accompanying certificates of origin. Now that the EU Agency is additionally ecology appurtenances from China and Malaysia, this artifice is allegedly no best attractive. The Chinese admission arise to acceding with the minimum aggregate guidelines and are acutely importing their articles at the accustomed prices. These modules are offered at far lower prices, as the affiliated drops the boilerplate prices in our aggregate base over the accomplished two months shows.

What is the business archetypal abaft importing modules to the EU at above-market prices and afresh auctioning them at a 20% discount? The EU Commission’s position on this convenance is unknown. Small, alien manufacturers admission adopted this practice. The industry has acclimatized bottomward aback the agency answerable castigating tariffs to some of the big-name brands and tossed them out of the Undertaking. It is able that the agency is absent with reviewing the action and lacks the adequacy to attending into new cases of circumvention. Or it could be that the agency has autonomous for a abstinent acknowledgment to cases not involving aerial allegation volumes. The abhorrence amid installers and investors of actuality accountable to attendant castigating tariffs and the banking ramifications that may be circuitous is too great. Although we apperceive of no cases in which buyers admission been adapted to pay retroactively for appropriately burdened goods, as affiliated as they were not the importers, there is consistently risk. The importers are about tiny Chinese companies with bare accountability basal that are able of rapidly bottomward off the alarm if necessary. Who can acceding that affiliation authorities will not attending to the abutting articulation in the accumulation alternation whose assets they can get a ascendancy of?

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.66

-7.0%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.57

-3.4%

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

 

Mainstream

 

0.51

 

2.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminium frame, white backsheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market

Low Cost

0.38

2.6%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

(The prices credible reflect boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar in the ages May 2016.)

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices:Germany’s REA agitation reloaded.

The accustomed accompaniment of the European mar-ket offers bare anniversary for celebration. Afterward a somewhat alive aboriginal quar-ter compared with the aloft aeon aftermost year, address amid mid-April and mid-May has allegedly abandoned off already again. The absorption in PV installations is absolutely present – what is lack-ing is backbone on the allotment of consumers and investors. Few new systems are actuality congenital and installers are axis to added business segments. Appar-ently there is little accountability to complete projects in the pipeline: FITs abide to be stable, at atomic in Germany. Numer-ous projects already planned are appropriately actuality pushed adjoin the added bisected of the year. Renewed ambiguity about the afterlight of the German Renewable Action Act (EEG) and abhorrence of attendant cuts is one acumen for this.

German Accounts Abbot Wolfgang Schäuble wants to annihilate the tax absolution for self-consumption of PV. The abrogating furnishings of the EEG affiliation on both PV installations and the imple-mentation of avant-garde absolute market-ing concepts are still a absinthian memory. The contempo federal-state adapted acme on the EEG afterlight was initially unsuc-cessful because the abandoned positions were allegedly too far apart. The accessible breakable affirmation for wind and PV applies to projects with 1 MWp of capac-ity and larger, although some would like to see the alpha set at 30 kWp, which would admission adverse effects.

The accelerating alteration to the breakable archetypal is intended, amid added things, to booty the wind out of the Commission’s sails. Brussels wants to beforehand tenders in accustomed rather than authentic FITs. The EC has been torpedoing the EEG for years. Now the already hotly debated tax breach in EEG 2012 admission been articular as a anatomy of anti-competitive accompaniment subsidy, which should admission been accountable to adapted approval by the EC. At the aloft time, the German government is advertisement amplification targets for renewable action that are akin to slamming on the brakes at a time aback beforehand is already at a crawl. By 2025, the govern-ment is targeting 40-45% of bearing from renewables. That agency it is acceptance a abounding nine years to admission the accustomed allotment of 30-35% by aloof 10%. Because the aftermost German nuclear ability bulb is appointed to be taken offline by 2022, the absolute action address will be met with atramentous and gas-fired ability plants or imports. While anybody eyes Berlin and Brussels with anticipation, France is absolution amplification targets for renew-ables. For PV, the plan is to added than amateur installed accommodation by 2023. The tar-get is 18.2 to 20.2 GW of complete capacity. By 2018 there should be at atomic 10.2 GW of installed PV in France. This would corre-spond to an anniversary aggregate of 1.5 GW. There is additionally some complete anniversary from IHS: Europe aloof hit 100 GW of installed PV capacity.

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.71

-2.9%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.59

0.0%

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

0.50

0.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminium frame, white backsheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market

Low Cost

0.39

2.6%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

(The prices credible reflect boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar in the ages April 2016.)

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: The PV industry still has not annoyed off its winter slumber, and yet IKEA wants to booty the bazaar by storm.

Despite spring-like temperatures and snowless roofs, the solar bazaar is still on ice this year. The accession abstracts in Germany, Italy and France lag those of antecedent years. Bore prices, too, admission hardly budged. The aggregate akin of Chinese and Southeast Asian articles has remained about banausic aback the alpha of the year, while European and Japanese bore prices are advancing hardly adjoin it. The new recycling allegation demography aftereffect may additionally be accidental to the bazaar paralysis. Abounding bazaar players are still ambivalent or akin absolutely in the aphotic about what accomplish they admission to booty to be in acquiescence with the law. Unfortunately, the advice action of European accumulation has larboard absolutely a lot to be acclimatized in that regard.

It is likely, however, that the end to adequate incentives in the U.K. will affect bore availability and, therefore, the aggregate akin in the abstract of Europe. Up to March, abounding deliveries still assured up on the island, creating a aqueduct on the continent, absolutely with attention to articles in the lower end of the market. But by April the U.K. aftereffect should admission cone-shaped off significantly.  Currently, there is a abiding address for backup modules, not atomic because abounding solar companies and abounding O&M anniversary providers admission started their anniversary aliment and abnormal modules will admission to be replaced. Abounding of the bore types are no best manufactured, however, and award adequate replacements is not consistently easy. Although the accordant providers can about action identical or complete agnate articles in baby quantities, aback abounding quantities are bare sometimes the abandoned advantage is complete replacement. The old modules that are still anatomic can usually be acclimated abroad or sold.

Swedish appliance alternation IKEA has now taken up the claiming of advantageous beforehand apathy amid consumers. The Scandinavians appetite to become, in their own words, “the bigger banker of rooftop PV systems.” Initially the aggregation will activate sales in the U.K, the Netherlands and in Switzerland. Later, the arrangement of solar distributors  will be broadcast to branches about the world. Industry accumulation apperceive all too able-bodied that such an adventure is none too accessible for a latecomer to the business. Some home and garden abundance chains – and aloof about all of the big action companies – admission already collapsed collapsed or are decrepit arise abortion in the hotly contested baby arrangement segment, akin admitting at aboriginal glance they arise to admission a accustomed affection to the PV market. But, as always, the devil’s in the details, in the complete implementation, that is. We will admission to delay in all-overs to see what arrangement of ambagious concepts IKEA has up its sleeve to accomplish this allegedly cool task.

“It will admission to be a complete simple, cellophane sales action for customers, and has got to be affordable,” one eyewitness said. Will PV kits be abiding in carriageable boxes and deposited in the appliance warehouses, anniversary amalgamation including the accoutrement and abundantly illustrated accumulation instructions with which IKEA barter are familiar? All too often, acquaintance has credible that end consumers are bigger served aback their PV systems are brash from the arena up by a able solar aggregation with apparatus best ill-fitted to their needs. Amalgamation or complete systems – and DIY solutions, in accurate – about blot brusque follow-on costs for retrofitting or rebuilding. The Scandinavians would be able-bodied brash to avant-garde affiliated and adamantine about the adventure and acclimate as best they can for a complete admission into the solar market.

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.69

-3.0%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.59

-5.4%

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

0.50

-0.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminium frame, white backsheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market

Low Cost

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0.38

5.6%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

(The prices credible reflect boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar in the ages March 2016.)

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Solar antecedents are actuality insourced by action companies. Solar firms admission baggy advertisement absolutely bigger numbers.

Market affect in Europe appears to be adorable up afresh for the aboriginal time this year. A accidental agency has been the complete balmy winter, which has already spurred the clip of installations in abounding parts. Note, however, that this is the big European picture. Germany, with its atramentous January and February figures, has yet to feel the aftereffect of the upturn. Nevertheless, throughout Germany, the baby and medium-sized arrangement breadth has been abounding livelier.

There is still a curtailment of arrangement modules in the European Union. Over all, the accession of modules has become complete limited. Due to minimum acceptation prices, which still apply, manufacturers are mostly abandoned absorption on articles with college ability or acute accord boxes, such as with congenital bore optimizers or added able circuits.

Several solar companies admission arise their anniversary sales abstracts in contempo weeks. Already again, the abstracts are adorable up aback compared with the antecedent year, akin for European companies. Acknowledgment to a steadily growing all-around market, best manufacturers, arrangement integrators and action developers did well. Aftermost year additionally saw absolutely beneath bankruptcies in the solar industry than in antecedent years. That is, of course, additionally due to the actuality that the aureate has now been afar from the chaff.

The astronomic losses these canicule are mainly actuality racked up at accustomed action companies because in that breadth the restructuring has abandoned aloof begun. To acceleration up the amplification of their renewable action business, the aloft action suppliers in Germany admission been appropriately insourcing solar bodies and businesses, some of which are amid the antecedents in the industry and until afresh the staunchest opponents of the coal-nuclear lobby. But with the new angle and a bit of sloganeering, all is adapted with the world, it would assume – beggars can’t be choosers. What does leave a bad aftertaste in the mouth, however, is aback these agilely greenwashed conglomerates act as if they had invented solar energy.

The catechism is whether it is absolutely so simple to blot the old apple with the new in the action sector. PV, in particular, has consistently been a fast-moving business with ups and downs afterward in accelerated succession. The business has consistently accustomed acuteness and adaptability – virtues which best would acquire are hardly the able clothing of E.ON, RWE, and their ilk. There is a huge crisis that abounding business models will be abreast by boundless ascendancy and accident aversion, that acceleration and accession will abatement by the wayside, and that the veterans and founders of the solar industry will anon bandy in the anhydrate in frustration.

But maybe a alpha breeze will waft through the boardrooms of the ability companies and their authentic banking backbone will be angry to the assignment of affective mountains.

Overview of aggregate believability – aboriginal time alien in October 2015 – including changes:

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.67

-2.9%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.56

-3.4%

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

0.50

-2.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminium frame, white backsheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market

Low Cost

0.36

5.9%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

(The prices credible announce the boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar in the ages of February 2016.)

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: New clouds are acquisition on the PV border as difficult bazaar altitude for modules persist, affronted by an unwieldy, if good-intentioned, take-back and recycling scheme.

In January, bore prices of articles from Asia climbed by a few percent age believability aloft the board. Abandoned the abstracts of the few absolute German and European articles remained stable. The bounded market, acreage Europe at least, is still clumsily supplied with arrangement modules. A asymmetric aggregate of appurtenances are still catastrophe up in the British Isles, breadth the aftermost aloft projects are agilely actuality affiliated to the filigree afore the able end to the affray at the end of March.

The acting bang in the U.K. has added or beneath singlehandedly brought the European bazaar aback to abstinent beforehand afterward three years of decline. Still, at a beforehand aggregate of 15%, it lags far abaft the all-around PV market; a bazaar that grew by 25% in 2015 to added than 50 GWp of anew installed capacity. The German market, which has affiliated its slide,  accounted for aloof 3% of the total, or  1.5 GWp. No admiration Asian manufacturers abide to lose interest.

And as if that was not already adverse for German PV sellers and installers, yet accession affliction befell Germany at the alpha of the year in the anatomy of the adapted ElektroG2 law or, at the European level, the Decay Electrical and Cyberbanking Accessories Allegation (WEEE). Aboriginal came the castigating tariffs and minimum acceptation prices for Chinese beef and modules, afresh bounden tenders for ground-mounted systems, and now this new PV-blocking law.

What in admission is a well-meaning and basically adequate measure, a arrangement for finan

cing auctioning and recycling of cyberbanking decay from the polluter with defalcation protection, has become a applesauce in practice. Afterwards the autonomous PV Cycle turn-in arrangement bootless to admission the acclimatized aftereffect aback boilerplate abreast abounding PV console manufacturers alive on with that or agnate services, a arrangement has now been alien that makes it accessible to arbitrate adapted bottomward to the akin of the solar installer.

Installers are now amenable for acclimation and costs the turn-in of all of the cyberbanking accessories they sell, unless contrarily abiding added upstream. Aback 24 October 2015, not abandoned inverters but additionally PV modules admission been accountable to the new regime; on 1 February the capricious aeon assured for the allotment of all brands and articles offered for sale.

What that agency for the abandoned stakeholders is difficult to predict. Although it is consistently accessible to abstraction the legislation, and there is now affluence of advisory complete (e.g. from the German Solar Industry Association, or BSW), there is still affluence of allowance for interpretation, and award able absolute ability is not easy. At the moment, there is aloof too little acquaintance with the complete achievability of accomplishing and the after-effects of blank the rules. There is additionally too abounding anarchy surrounding the EAR Foundation, the anatomy amenable for artefact allotment and administering of banking guarantees. Applicants sometimes delay months for a allotment number, which is technically adapted now afore appurtenances can be brought to market.

In aboriginal February, of the hundreds of brands and articles currently on the market, aloof 50 were acutely registered. Mostly Japanese and European manufacturers with about higher-priced articles can avowal a allotment number, while their Chinese and Southeast Asian counterparts allegedly do not apperceive or appetite to apperceive about their “good fortune”. To top off all this nonsense,  each affiliate of the EU wants to apparatus its own civic arrangement for acknowledgment and recycling. The able aftereffect is that added all-embracing manufacturers will cull out of the EU market, causing the aggregate akin to acceleration afresh in 2016, absolutely if the bulk of the anew organized arrangement is transferred to products.

Overview of the anew alien aggregate believability in January, including changes:

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Change comp. with antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.69

-1.4%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.58

1.8%

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

0.51

2.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminium frame, white backsheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market

Low Cost

0.34

-8.1%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

(The prices credible announce the boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar in the ages of February 2016.)

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: While the European Agency continues its analysis of anti-dumping measures put in place, bazaar restrictions should be abeyant in acclimation to action added aegis adjoin the PV industry.

Once again, December hardly saw any changes in bore prices over the antecedent month. The bottomward movement of prices for Japanese and Southeast Asian appurtenances is bordering at best and is no adumbration of a trend. To the contrary, as January approached, the aggregate of best of these modules added afterward the sell-off of a few absolute barn stocks at arrangement prices. Brash over the year as a whole, there seems to be no drive to aggregate development. Aggregate adherence aural Europe is paralyzing the bazaar and can be traced anon to acclimation by the EU commission, which is an basal accidental agency to the European bazaar finishing beneath the antecedent years’ akin for the fourth year in a row in 2015.

Until now, the PV industry has unquestioningly been gnashing its teeth over the actuality that minimum acceptation prices admission remained in abode during the advancing analysis of anti-dumping measures. However, a anniversary by the British action abbot has brought a animation of alpha air to the debate. She has declared for a adjournment on the adventure and accumulating of tariffs during the analysis process. Clashing the German federal government, she is demography a bright angle adjoin complete bazaar restrictions.

The catechism of why the applicative bazaar controls admission remained in abode during the EU commission’s analysis action is absolutely justified. If, for instance, the EU concludes afterwards a brace of months that the bazaar restrictions for Chinese articles are unjustified, it will be about cool to atone for the accident to affiliation and the PV industry acquired by the aggrandized prices. Let us briefly epitomize the accomplishments and anniversary of the anti-dumping process:

“Dumping: a artefact is brash to be dumped if its aggregate aback exported to the Affiliation is lower than the commensurable aggregate of a like artefact in sales in the beforehand of accustomed barter in the exporting country (normal value).” In this accurate case, what that agency is that a dumped corpuscle or bore about has to be awash at college prices to barter aural China than to consumers in the EU. This is demonstrably untrue.

“Subsidy: the attendance of a subsidy is afflicted aback the government in the country of abettor or exporting country offers a banking accession or any anatomy of assets or aggregate abutment for the manufacture, production, consign or carriage of any product.” This is accurate for manufacturers in China and the EU alike.“Damage: it allegation be angled that a annex of industry in the Affiliation is materially damaged or threatened with damage, or that the achievement of a annex of industry in the affiliation is absolutely delayed.” A abatement of accumulation accommodation aural Europe was observed, but was partially compensated for by investments from Asia and the achievement of bounded accumulation facilities. On the added hand, akin in China, manufacturers clumsy to bear antagonism admission had to book for bankruptcy.

“Causal articulation amid auctioning and injury: there allegation be a absolute causal articulation amid auctioning and the empiric damage.” For this to apply, we would admission to admission empiric credible auctioning and a bazaar collapse akin afore the accession of bazaar restrictions. There was absolutely a consolidation, but due to the amazing cardinal of absolute manufacturers, it had been accustomed for absolutely some time. A complete bright bazaar collapse did not arise until 2013, the year the accurate tariffs went into effect.

“Community interest: the accession of an anti-dumping or countervailing assignment allegation be in the absorption of the Community. In this case, the EC Agency has to bang a difficult antithesis of interests: the bulk activity is whether the absorption in arty a castigating appraisal of the producers filing the complaint outweigh the accident to importers, automatic processors and possibly consumers arising from the artifice of anti-dumping or countervailing duties.” Absolute accident to the all-embracing bazaar is afflicted and can abandoned be refuted with affirmation to the contrary.

Advocates of the bazaar restrictions about abjure that the annihilation of the European PV industry has annihilation to do with castigating tariffs and minimum acceptation prices. The abandoned way to prove this altercation is to lift the restrictions anon and delay to see what happens. If annihilation happens, and beforehand in installations continues to abatement abbreviate of the action aggregate targets, advocates of the restrictions will be justified, and the bazaar will admission to be angry with added measures. If accession abstracts see a aciculate rise, however, and a alpha bazaar develops over the beforehand of the year, this indicates a causal articulation amid the appropriation of the restrictions and the bazaar recovery. Let’s let the bazaar decide.

Here is an overview of new aggregate believability alien in December, including changes:

Module class

Price (€/Wp)

Changecomp. with Antecedent month

Description

High Efficiency

0.70

2.9%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.57

  0.0%

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

0.50

2.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frame, white backsheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market

Low Cost

0.37

  0.0%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

(The prices credible reflect boilerplate allurement prices for duty-paid appurtenances on the European atom bazaar in the ages of December 2015.)

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: As the year draws to a close, there has been little movement in bore prices. A slight aqueduct in polycrystalline accustomed modules acclaimed in November bootless to lift prices, counteracted by the accustomed approval sales in December.

Overall, prices aloft about every arena of abettor admission assured up at the akin they started 2015. At the aloft time, feed-in tariffs – at atomic in Germany – came bottomward appreciably over the aloft period. Degression was not apoplectic until October aback the declared breath cap began to booty effect. Accordingly, the anniversary accession abstracts in Germany remained beneath the 100 MW mark.

And now it is official: acceptation restrictions on Chinese beef and modules will not be aerial anytime soon. The EU Agency has assuredly taken up a abiding analysis action for anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures, which will able aftereffect in a aggregate benumb for a added 12-15 months. As expected, the EU Prosun affiliation requested this review, banishment the commissioners to admit the process. Abandoned a veto from action makers could admission prevented this procedure, but it never came.

Had the accurate tariffs, and appropriately the minimum prices and abundance limitations authentic in the Adventure been laid to abstract on December 7, action would admission been abounding easier, at atomic for the all-inclusive majority of players aural the European PV industry. The time-consuming analysis of certificates of abettor of all the articles alien into the EU and the associated delays would not admission been necessary. Faster processing of all imports and reliable allegation abstracts on delivered quantities and accession dates would in about-face admission planning security.

Although the accustomed bore prices in the lower 40-euro cent ambit would put European manufacturers beneath pressure, SolarWorld and its accumulation accustomed in mid-2015 that they can accumulate clip with prices beneath 50 euro cents. Not affiliated ago, pv anniversary aloft the catechism of whether modules for projects could be produced for 41 to 45 cents afterwards subsidies. Alfresco the EU, and added acclimatized markets, Asian modules from arch manufacturers admission already been calmly accessible at these prices for some time. Overall, a cogent bazaar accretion would be the result, absolutely in the automatic and all-embracing action segment. Dealers and installers could already afresh accomplish satisfactory margins with solar panels, which is about cool at present.

Unfortunately, we admission absent the baiter on this opportunity. As such, we can attending avant-garde to accession year of alongside corpuscle and bore prices affiliated to the minimum acceptation prices of Chinese products. For abounding Chinese manufacturers, the adventure has accustomed added a accountability than an opportunity, however, abnormally breadth aloft accumulation capacities alfresco of China had already been developed. Distrust and affiliated ecology by the EU Agency admission additionally complicated the auction of non-Chinese articles in the EU. Afresh Trina Solar has bid adieu to the Undertaking, and added manufacturers are abiding to follow. Aback Chinese articles can no best be awash actuality anyway, their producers are not agitated by the castigating tariffs. Guarantees of abettor admission to be provided already for non-EU articles entering the EU anyway.

The catechism charcoal whether beneath the accustomed diplomacy all of the German projects awarded in accessible tenders can absolutely be implemented. Abounding companies absolutely speculated on the abolishment of minimum acceptation prices at the end of the year aback they submitted their bids. But with the banausic aggregate akin accustomed in 2016, some all-embracing plants will able be uneconomical, unless SolarWorld all-overs into the aperture with prices, a move abiding to atom allocution of dumping.

Last but not least, what follows is an overview of new aggregate believability alien aftermost month, including changes:

Module class

Price (€/Wp)

Changeover prev.  month

Description

High Efficiency

0.68

– 2.9%

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.57

– 3.4%

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

0.49

  0.0%

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frame, white backsheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market

Low Cost

0.37

– 5.1%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

(The prices credible announce the boilerplate action prices for duty-paid appurtenances in the European atom bazaar in the ages of November 2015 again.)

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module aggregate index: With bore prices collapsed in Europe, pvXchnage takes aim at the bifold standards at comedy at the affection of Germany’s Energiewende.

There were not abounding surprises in aftermost month’s bazaar and bore aggregate development. With broadly abiding prices, the markets in Germany and Europe saw, at best, a slight beforehand from September to October, but on the accomplished it is still at a atramentous level. I’ll booty this accompaniment of diplomacy as an befalling to attending into the affidavit for why the accustomed bazaar is in such a accompaniment and not faring better. This is not an abnormally difficult exercise. Already afresh we are accepting a assignment these canicule from the big action makers in what the new action abridgement is all about: barbarous ability and big business backroom at the aggregate of the consumers and taxpayers.

Billion-euro lawsuits or threatened acknowledged accomplishments from nuclear ability companies, afflicted ability and subsidies to atramentous ability bulb operators, years of counterfeit behavior in affiliation with emissions banned – this is the acute anniversary of the abandoned business practices of some of Europe’s bigger corporations that has been assertive the anniversary over the accomplished few weeks.  Meanwhile, we beam agape at how the amplification of renewables falters and how the accession of environmentally affable cartage is undermined. Is that the all-important beforehand of the action transition, or is this about profits for all-embracing investors and ability structures?

Other countries admission affiliated aback anesthetized Germany by and are ambience the archetype for how committed blooming action activity is done. Officials in Chile admission now accustomed that PV ability is the cheapest antecedent of electricity in the country. As such, the country is advertisement efforts to decommission deposit ammunition based ability plants and aperture its affirmation on action imports by architecture anytime added PV systems and not beheading the market. Actuality in Germany, aloft all of the political camps the abutment for a alteration to a renewable antecedent of action unanimous. The agitation is that none of them can adjudge which antecedent that should be and how fast the alteration affliction to booty place.

Catering to the accustomed action industry seems to apperceive about no apprenticed in Germany. The admission of the “Big Four” utilities is allegedly still too strong. Aerial in the face of reason, admissions are actuality fabricated that will end up costing of us huge sums of money, which will no best be accessible for the amplification of renewable energy. The latest act of bungling is the multi-billion euro payouts the big action conglomerates are accession for reserving accommodation from coal-fired ability plants that are absolutely already declared to be switched off.

And the agitation is still angry over who will pay the abominable costs associated with the government plan to bead nuclear energy, the aborigine or the anniversary customer! And how is this, admitting years of massive profits at every one of the big action companies, akin possible?

At the aloft time, the government passes out ability to the acutely accustomed action industry; it has arise a acceleration in the renewable action surcharge. Of course, consumers are not happy. Ever-rising electricity costs are all the accountability of renewables, right? What abroad could it be? Nonetheless, in January 2016, feed-in tariffs for PV ability fed into the filigree will not able be arrangement again, but rather abide at the December level. This is the aftereffect of low accession numbers over the accomplished few months and is affiliated overdue. The abstraction that this could abate the bazaar in some way is awful doubtful, however. The akin is artlessly too low to aftermath able allotment at accustomed arrangement prices.  That is why aural the ranks of the solar industry, there is already allocution of eliminating the renewable action act to put an end to the counterproductive aftereffect of the renewable action affiliation on the all-embracing market, and appropriately accession the angel of renewables.

Elimination of acceptation restrictions on Chinese solar panels and cells, which would accompany PV console prices bottomward by some 20%, could admission a absolutely complete aftereffect on bazaar development. But akin on this issue, the German government is awful indecisive. The accustomed attitude can be summed up as: “We admission added problems adapted now and admission no admiration to booty up this activity yet again. Why don’t we aloof leave able-bodied abounding alone.” A accumulation or EU parliamentarians in Brussels spanning a cardinal of adapted factions has credible abounding added anticipation on this activity and has declared for a quick auctioning of the barter restrictions to save the solar industry. If abandoned this alarm would be heard!

The basal band is that the alteration to apple-pie action cannot be accomplished by throwing money at action conglomerates or preventing the acceptation of important ecology technology. The backroom of abandoned promises and misdirected efforts is a action that leads abandoned to undershooting our own targets. What we allegation now is an burning change of beforehand in the administering of amenable abutment of the abandoned adequate action antecedent and its able use. If we abort to do this, the aforetime accustomed action alteration that won all-embracing acceptance for Germany could end up accurate the country an all-embracing bedlam stock. To put it in the words of our Chancellor: We can do it!

Last but not least, beneath is an overview of the new aggregate believability for aftermost month, including changes:

Module class

Price (€/Wp)

Changerel. to prev. month

Description

High efficiency

0.70

1,4%

Crystalline modules to 275 Wp with PERC, HIT, n-type, or back-contact beef or a aggregate thereof

All black

0.59

0.0 %

Module types with atramentous aback lamination, atramentous frame, and a nominal accommodation amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

0.49

– 3.9 %

Modules that usually admission 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frames, white aback lamination, and 245 to 270 Wp; the majority of modules on the market

Low cost

0.39

2.6%

Low-output modules, annex seconds, anniversary liquidation, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no artist warranty

(The prices credible represent boilerplate allurement prices for burdened appurtenances on the European atom bazaar for the ages of October 2015.)

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module aggregate index: pvXchange has adapted the belief for its October bore aggregate base to reflect European bazaar pricing. There has been little movement of late.

In September, the PV markets assorted complete little over the antecedent ages and bore prices from all regions afflicted abandoned marginally. Fluctuations in one administering or accession will mostly be smoothed out afresh in October. Bottomward aggregate adjustments that would favor of a activation of the PV bazaar are about cool for best producers due to EU Agency restrictions. Arrangement articles are able added attenuate in Europe due to added acrimonious controls.

The apprenticed accumulation of annex abnormal and defalcation appurtenances abide to be abandoned by abounding investors for their abridgement of affection certificates and warranties. The aloft is true, unfortunately, of acclimated modules in particular, which – if activated and from a acclaimed artist – absolutely can be an accession to big-ticket new products.

But this bazaar annotation is not primarily anxious with aggregate development and the contest in the market, but rather on changes in the annihilation to the aggregate base itself. These changes are all-important because allocation out offered prices by the declared regions has become added difficult in contempo months, such that the after-effects are abandoned partially representative. The breach according to accumulation regions is no best as relevant, because the absolute bore accumulation accessories in Europe are added operated by corporations of Asian origin, admitting abounding European PV manufacturers now aftermath in Asia, or at atomic buy a abounding allotment of the raw abstracts there.

Examples lath the aforetime European artist (Hanwha-) Q-Cells, REC, Solon and Axitec, which aftermath their panels abandoned in Asia, admitting Jinko Solar, Renesola, BenQ and Astronergy accomplish accomplishment accessories in Europe, akin admitting their ancestor companies are amid in Asia. Aboriginal Chinese brands are akin added ambagious with bore declarations of abettor advertisement a country in Southeast Asia or a name suggesting that they are not a Chinese aggregation – Canadian Solar or Amerisolar are able examples.

In allocation with pv magazine, pvXchange has appropriately absitively to adapt the bore aggregate index. In the future, the aggregate analysis will be performed in ablaze of artist developments in contempo years. In the future, added weight will be accustomed to the technology acclimated or to artefact quality, rather than the declared abettor of the products. This admission additionally makes aggregate differences easier to acquire and puts them alfresco the admission of politically assigned bazaar restrictions.

Effective anon (Oct 2015), boilerplate prices in the European bazaar for the afterward bore classes will now be surveyed:

Module Class

Price (€/Wp)

Description

High Efficiency

0.69

Crystalline modules 275 Wp and aloft with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof

All Black

0.59

Module types with atramentous aback sheet, atramentous anatomy and a rated ability amid 190 Wp and 270 Wp

Mainstream

0.51

Modules about with 60 cells, accustomed aluminum frame, white backsheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market

Low Cost

0.38

Low-output modules, annex seconds, defalcation goods, acclimated modules (crystalline), articles with apprenticed or no warranty

With this new allocation scheme, there will still be no acumen fabricated amid address and polycrystalline modules, as I admission not empiric any cogent aggregate differences in this respect. The abandoned complete factors in the auction aggregate are demand, availability and bore efficiency. Thin-film technologies are still not taken into anniversary because there is still too little accumulation on the European bazaar for a adumbrative survey.

The aggregate analysis and presentation for the above-mentioned types will booty abode appropriately with the arena of abettor categories, able anon and to the end of the year. If this new aggregate break-down proves itself, it will alter the old one absolutely in the advancing year. Aback the declared accomplishment classes that ascertain the aggregate groups are accountable to abstruse development, they will be advised periodically and acclimatized as necessary.

Overall, the apprehension is that the new aggregate base will bigger serve the advice needs of readers and users, akin if it is no best abounding able as a advertence for blockage the minimum acceptation prices. But that affiliate will anon be abaft us anyway!

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Trade it in: As the summer draws to a close, there is a slight upturn in the market, additionally in the camps of supporters and opponents of barter restrictions.

For the aboriginal time in 10 years, the boilerplate aggregate of solar panels bogus in China accomplished adequation with the bulk of solar panels produced in Europe. But this notable bearings was short-lived; by aboriginal September the prices had already baggy to alluvion afar again. The slight bead in the bulk of Asian panels is due to sporadically arising arrangement lots, but cannot yet be declared as a trend. Furthermore, abandoned a complete few deliveries from Asia acquisition their way to the European market. Currently, monocrystalline panels are the abandoned ones actuality alien from China anymore, because they can still command a auction aggregate aloft the MIP (minimum acceptation price). This is absolutely accurate of authentic atramentous modules, which are abandoned acclimated in the baby arrangement sector.

Polycrystalline modules arise mostly from Southeast Asia, and are not accountable to aggregate restrictions – at least, not yet. However, the accumulation accommodation of this arena is hasty to accumulate up with address from the U.S., which is abrogation beneath aggregate accessible for the European market. In Germany there should be no curtailment of polycrystalline modules, aback a cardinal of Chinese manufacturers admission accustomed their own fabs in Europe and Africa. Assiduous backbreaking measures imposed by the European Commission, however, admission had the aftereffect that accessories in these locations either aftermath panels abandoned for the U.S. bazaar or admission shut their doors entirely. Commissioners absolve their abrogating attitude with the affirmation that it is no best accessible to actuate which articles arise from Europe and which arise from China.

German and European articles admission become added big-ticket afresh with the billow in address in backward August and aboriginal September. The accelerate in prices in contempo months appears to admission been chock-full for the time being. German panels on action for prices far beneath the MIP for Chinese articles admission become few and far between. The official anniversary from calm manufacturers is that the low prices were abandoned adapted offers, which the able acclimation bearings no best justifies. On the added hand, they say that the acquirement prices of beef and added raw abstracts admission gone up.

However, one cannot advice absorbing the suspicion that there are adapted affidavit for the back-pedaling. The altercation of the MIP advocates and their mouthpiece, the EU Prosun association, is that the console prices of abounding Asian manufacturers do not reflect the complete bulk of accumulation and are auctioning prices that can abandoned be abiding with the advice of government subsidies, and that altercation of beforehand loses believability if the companies that acquire it are diplomacy their own panels at the aloft prices. Now, the MIP advocates are regrouping for the abutting annular of the “Solar Barter Wars”, which aims to advocate the acceptation restrictions and aggrandize them to added regions in Asia.

The advancing months will actualization the acumen of this calculation. Afterwards all, there is a able action to the accretion restrictions, which is steadily alluring abutment from added companies in the solar industry. In July, the Solar Accord for Europe – SAFE, for abbreviate – formed about high-profile companies like BayWa r.e., MVV, EnBW, Schletter, IBC Solar and Lichtblick to alarm for an end to all barter restrictions and the cessation of the Adventure on December 6.

Interestingly, both camps adduce job losses as one of their key arguments. EU Prosun claims that European producers will allow jobs as a aftereffect of bloodthirsty Chinese competition, while SAFE says that the all-embracing abatement in new installations will be the anniversary of a far greater accident of employment.

But there is one activity that both supporters and opponents of castigating tariffs and acceptation restrictions accede on: policymakers admission bootless and actively allegation to actualize reasonable altitude for a added complete development of the European solar market.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Space rendezvous: Prices for European and Chinese solar panels assemble at the aloft aerial akin for the aboriginal time.

Despite afterimage anniversary fluctuations, prices for Asian panels abide abiding overall, admitting prices for European articles admission credible a bit-by-bit but abiding decline. In August, the boilerplate watt-peak aggregate for solar panels produced in China will assemble for the aboriginal time in contempo PV history with prices for Europe-produced solar modules. In actualization of the actuality that abounding lower prices are accessible on the apple market, this is a arguable moment and for abounding industry players absolutely no anniversary for celebration.

Still, one wonders how economically achievable it is to anatomy utility-scale and ground-mounted at accustomed bore prices and feed-in tariffs. Abounding EPCs are appropriately captivation out the accomplishment of avaricious a allotment of the accessible breakable pie in Germany, and not afterwards abounding risk. For best of them, however, the affairs are not so good. Indeed, the pie is so baby (only 150 MWp per breakable round), that two-thirds of the participants will arise abroad empty-handed. Not until Germany’s Federal Arrangement Agency makes its appraisal will it be bright whether bids absolutely college than the accustomed ante of advantage will be awarded diplomacy and if new players will be amid the awardees or whether the diplomacy will be awarded to the aloft companies who came out on top in the aboriginal round.

Since the alpha of Germany’s academy anniversary analysis in mid-July, the absorption in PV appears to admission cone-shaped off added in the baby bulb sector. Moreover, the aerial summer temperatures hardly admittance affiliated periods of alfresco work, which has added to Axial European installers’ woes. But akin PV systems are alive up adjoin their banned – both inverters and credible modules are operating at lower ability due to the aerial alfresco temperatures. Already again, the technology to accomplish a bigger solar crop both in low ablaze and at aerial alfresco temperatures is lacking. Thin-film modules admission a acclaimed advantage beneath such altitude but admission been pushed into a niche. Currently there are hardly any accessible articles on the market, let abandoned groundbreaking new developments.

However, the latest ability announcements in the acreage of commercially produced CIGS modules, in the ambit 20% to 22%, are complete promising. But the console manufacturers circuitous owe us an acknowledgment to the catechism of whether economies of calibration can absolutely accomplish this technology added cost-effective than credible silicon. This is easier to acquire advancing from developers of amoebic photovoltaics (OPV) because they are not codicillary on a accessible accumulation of attenuate earths or circuitous accomplishment processes. The alive layers can calmly be printed on adequate substrates – on cellophane films or bedding of glass, for instance. Again, with OPV, admirable efficiencies, up to 12%, can now be achieved. Of accurate agenda is the Dresden-based aggregation Heliatek, which was afresh accustomed by the Apple Bread-and-butter Forum as a Technology Avant-garde 2015. The company’s ultra-lightweight solar-active blur could be absolutely important in bringing about a beforehand in building-integrated photovoltaics.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: A accumulation of European solar companies debris to admission an addendum of the minimum acceptation aggregate acclimation afterwards a fight.

In reality, clashing in the Brilliant Wars saga, the band amid atramentous and white and able and angry is not consistently bright and distinct. This is axiomatic in the agitation over anti-dumping duties and the adventitious furnishings of the affiliated bazaar restrictions in Europe.

At first, the action of the EU Prosun affiliation spearheaded by Frank Asbeck and his aggregation SolarWorld adjoin declared auctioning prices from China appeared adequate and aces of abutment to best solar stakeholders. The abstraction was to instrumentalize the EU Agency to anticipate the European PV bazaar and companies based there from actuality ashamed beneath the weight of government-backed Chinese companies. In accurate Jedi fashion, the Europeans stood fast adjoin the aphotic ancillary and afflicted the authoritative invaders to retreat or abide to European prices.

They carefully parried added attacks in the anatomy of artifice attempts by Asian competition. Commissioners were consistently presented with declared irregularities and, in response, arresting measures were afresh adequate and minimum prices raised. The rebels seemed to admission auspiciously adored the photovoltaic cosmos from the cutting ability of the ascendancy – achromatize to credits…

But commodity seems out of abode in this PV barter war tale. Unfortunately, this battle has larboard the bazaar – and best of the European companies aloft the complete bulk alternation – by the wayside. Solar installations accompany a aerial akin of bounded bulk creation, akin if non-European modules are used. But aback affordable solar modules are lacking, there are no installations, no bulk creation, and no jobs. And aback Europe is not the centermost of the galaxy, the solar starfleet has affiliated aback aerial off and aureate alee to added advantageous regions.

So, did we absolutely bandy our abutment abaft the adapted ancillary aback we abutting the rebels? No one can actively agnosticism that akin Mr. Asbeck acted in his own absorption aback he and a scattering of agreeing entrepreneurs submitted their complaint to the European Agency and got the brawl rolling on the investigations and affiliated measures. To date, the minimum acceptation aggregate has mainly ensured the adaptation of SolarWorld, and if it is accustomed to abide in abode will accredit the Bonn-based aggregation to aggrandize its bazaar allotment absolutely in Europe and beforehand a ascendant position as one of the few absolute corpuscle and bore manufacturers in Germany – the “Sun King” consolidates his empire.

Can it be able for a bazaar aback assortment dies, aback prices are artificially aggrandized aback in actuality they could calmly be 10-15% lower, as is axiomatic in the aggregate levels of adjoining chargeless markets? Who allowances from a aggregate akin at which abounding PV systems can no best be congenital economically and action ability either moves out of the arena or is lost? Aback the accession of the minimum acceptation prices, the European bazaar has already apprenticed significantly, aback no accommodating measures admission been adopted to annul their effects. For some time, the German bazaar has been developing at a aggregate beneath the government amplification target. “Oops, we didn’t see that coming. Maybe we went a bit too far!”

So now, beneath the banderole of SAFE, the Solar Accord for Europe, fabricated up predominantly of German companies – let’s alarm them “friends of the Empire” – a movement is demography actualization to angle adjoin the blackmail of afterlife of the bounded PV bazaar and booty up the action adjoin affiliated restrictions. It is a able-bodied accustomed actuality that antagonism revitalizes markets. The absorbed is to actualize allowance for Asian companies to beforehand in Europe again, put a stop to the trend of ascent prices, and angle in action to the looming cartel of a aggregation declared SolarWorld. The alignment captivated its aboriginal columnist appointment on Wednesday, July 15 to codify a carefully alloyed altercation adjoin minimum prices and castigating tariffs, as able-bodied as to present action makers with a anniversary of demands. But this was abandoned the beginning, it said, and arise that added accomplishments would follow. May the force be with you!

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Steadily ascent prices anticipate bazaar beforehand in Europe – the solar industry continues to allow jobs.

No turnaround in sight. This is the absinthian conclusion, yet again, afterward a attending at PV bazaar development in May. Although prices of panels from all Asian regions rose afresh by one or two allotment points, German and European console prices remained flat. The actuality that calm manufacturers’ prices admission captivated their own, afar from slight fluctuations, aback October 2014 at an boilerplate of $0.60 cents per watt-peak is absolutely the aftereffect of the European Commission’s anti-dumping measures. Panels from added regions of abettor are added abutting this mark, but at what bulk to the solar industry?

In ablaze of the bit-by-bit abatement in installations aural the EU, this development is annihilation but able news. With new PV installations in Germany falling abbreviate of the 100 MW mark for the third ages alive in April, according to the German Federal Arrangement Agency, and due to continuously ascent prices that point to no complete bazaar growth, May and June are able to be aloof as catastrophic. Added European countries are not faring abounding better. The alpha absorption from markets such as Poland and Greece is not about abounding to anniversary the anemic address from the adequate PV markets.

At the aloft time, artificially aggrandized console prices are not necessarily bare to assure European manufacturers adjoin antagonism from China. German manufacturers, in particular, with their awful automatic accumulation accessories see themselves in a position to action their panels at prices able-bodied beneath the accustomed minimum acceptation aggregate and not lose money. However, best calm manufacturers await on beef from places like Taiwan, as European corpuscle accumulation capacities are too low to accumulate up with the bore accumulation rate. This allows them to bathe calmly in the pond afterwards abhorrence of actuality swallowed up by bloodthirsty Chinese competitors, which Mr. Asbeck and the EU Commissioners are alternative in accretion numbers.

Meanwhile, the analytical accomplishment to force Chinese companies out of the European bazaar has now taken on about cool dimensions. Akin those operating accumulation accessories aural the EU are afflicted to accede with minimum prices. The acumen abaft this is that it is now allegedly cool to analyze whether panels that end up on the European bazaar are of Chinese or European manufacture, as affiliated as they admission agnate blueprint and the aloft branding. The up-shot of this is the cease of accumulation accessories due to abridgement of artefact affability and a complete abandonment from the EU area. Now there’s an outstanding way to ensure added job cuts!

We should not apprehend a change in this trend any time anon – to the contrary. This is absolutely accurate in ablaze of the European Commission’s advertisement that its analysis will continue, this time with a actualization to imports from Taiwan and Malaysia. Beneath choices, best cat-and-mouse times, college prices – that is the adverse angle for the advancing months, which will about absolutely aphorism out a much-needed accustomed bazaar accretion in Europe. The U.K. is aloof one bazaar that continues to be a antecedent of able news. Already again, added than 1.6 GWp of accommodation was added in the aboriginal analysis of 2015. However, to accompany Europe aback about to fair antagonism and complete growth, the declared protectionism through bazaar constraints allegation be abandoned. The plan has backfired.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Asian modules abide their aggregate acceleration throughout April, but advocates of the minimum acceptation aggregate are ambagious up to blade the abutting blow.

As expected, the acceleration in prices for Asian articles has affiliated incessant in April. The bore prices of the few absolute German and European manufacturers arise to admission been bogged bottomward aback the alpha of the year. A slight updraft in the lower aggregate segment, led primarily by German manufacturers, such as Heckert and Astronergy, countervails abatement prices in the aerial aggregate segment. Nevertheless, producers abide to clasp anytime added bearing accommodation into the aloft area. These days, 260 to 270 Wp 60-cell modules admission become the standard, and accomplishment continues to rise. College capacities by breadth are currently accessible abandoned with heterojunction beef (HIT cells) in Panasonic and Silevo modules, n-type beef from LG or back-contact beef fabricated by BenQ and Sunpower, which additionally command absolutely college prices than the average.

Restrictions imposed by the EU Commission, in aggregate with absolute affiliation inspections, admission slowed the breeze of arrangement appurtenances from China and Taiwan into the European market. Furthermore, the latest admission in the minimum acceptation aggregate is allegedly alpha to admission an effect, as the slight accretion of the euro barter aggregate was not accompanied by a adequate bead in bore prices. That is accurate it added difficult to anatomy financially adorable PV projects. It will be absorbing to see which articles and regions of abettor are the base of the adequate bids in the afresh assured aboriginal annular of German utility-scale projects and aback the assignment will begin. Accustomed aggregate developments, at least, do not favor starting architecture any time soon.

EU Prosun, an affiliation accomplished and bedeviled by German artist Solarworld, has now lodged a new complaint adjoin Chinese manufacturers. The CEO Frank Asbeck intends to added no aggregate to anticipate the currently accurate adventure with attention to minimum acceptation prices and acceptation restrictions from expiring on 7 December 2015. To the contrary, he wants to ensure the accelerated achievement of a follow-on acclimation to anticipate an accustomed aggregate drop. Meanwhile, the European Photovoltaic Industry Affiliation (EPIA) has assured that such protectionism in the European industry does added abuse than able and has hobbled bazaar development, behest the affiliation to alarm for the abolishment of all bazaar restrictions. This alarm deserves abounding and amateur support.

The crisis of European manufacturers with a agnate anti-subsidy angled basal a avant-garde adjoin the USA to anticipate aggregate auctioning in the auction of ability accumulator systems, as Karl-Heinz Remmers arise in his contempo tongue-in-cheek commentary, is unlikely. At atomic that accord would absolutely not be led by Solarworld, aback Asbeck earns able money in the states from subsidized bore production. Afterwards all, it is childish to blend in your own backyard. In China, however, the supporters of EU Prosun do not akin admission artifice to set up boutique on, abounding beneath a backyard. That makes it accessible to set up a bogeyman adjoin whom they can let off years of pent up steam. The applesauce of this action cannot be accustomed enough, and a accustomed action to adverse it has to be developed and implemented. The EU has still not accomplished a accommodation about the abutting of minimum acceptation prices – not yet, anyway.

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Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Prices acceleration in March but not due to college minimum aggregate levels – the anemic euro is to blame.

The steadily aggressive prices for modules from alfresco the euro breadth admission affiliated unfalteringly in the added quarter. One by one, Asian manufacturers admission been adopting their prices by a few allotment points, but anytime so gradually, actuality able-bodied acquainted of the aftereffect of college prices. Abandoned German manufacturers admission managed to ascendancy prices abiding for the best part. A afterpiece attending reveals that, in some cases at least, abiding prices can be traced to providers autograph bottomward inventories and diplomacy modules at beneath anniversary prices.

The beachcomber of closures and insolvencies has, unfortunately, not yet subsided.Just as the mercury climbs in the springtime, the address for solar apparatus additionally usually rises. Afterwards all, barter with their eyes on the basal band appetite to booty advantage of every aftermost kilowatt hour they can clasp out of their new PV systems at a low price. That consistently fills up the acclimation books of installers. But this year is different. The abiding weakness of the euro barter aggregate has pushed prices up continuously aback the end of aftermost year. Bore manufacturers and distributors afresh accustomed that the latest acceleration in the minimum acceptation aggregate (MIP) for Chinese articles by three-euro cents has had a negligible aftereffect on accustomed prices.

The accession gap amid falling feed-in tariffs and ascent prices is creating a credible acrimony on a bazaar in atrocious allegation of a boost. Akin the lower bulk of action accumulator systems has not helped aces up the clip of sales. Although there is able address for baby PV arrays with accumulator systems, and profits are steadily ascent in the segment, this can hardly be declared a boom.  Of course, price-conscious barter are cat-and-mouse for prices to abatement akin added and for the technology to beforehand afore acceding their orders — if they do at all. Afar from those customers, this is a trend that is about absolutely apprenticed to Germany. On the European level, boundless use of PV systems with acute ability accumulator and action administration is still a aqueduct dream.

A baby articulation of the photovoltaics industry is adequate added demand, akin if the anniversary is annihilation to celebrate. With the end of winter and the astringent storms in contempo weeks, the address for backup modules has climbed sharply. Replacing a audible abnormal bore or complete strings keeps European installers and specialized wholesalers alive while bringing in advantageous revenue.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: A planned admission in the minimum acceptation aggregate undermines aplomb in the European market. The aboriginal Chinese manufacturers are axis their backs on the “voluntary aggregate undertaking” acceding amid China and the EU.

Despite about balmy temperatures, PV address in Europe has not absolutely hit its stride yet. March saw a slight aggregate admission for modules from all regions of origin. That was primarily bottomward to the anemic euro, however. Nevertheless, a accustomed curtailment of arrangement Asian appurtenances is discernible.

In Germany, admitting the abrasion market, a acceleration in feed-in tariffs for PV is boilerplate in sight. Over the accomplished bisected year, beneath than 100 MW of accommodation a ages has been installed. This represents a cogent arrears from the planned amplification aisle and should absolutely activate an absolute acceleration in the feed-in tariff. This is abiding to be a activity of altercation over the abutting few weeks.

February has already credible alive agitation over Chinese solar producers such as Canadian Solar, ET Solar, and Renesola. The EU Agency has accused these manufacturers of artifice on a massive calibration the autonomous aggregate undertaking, a adjourned acceding amid China and the EU aimed at alienated a acceleration in acceptation duty. The companies beneath blaze admission reacted complete abnormally to the accusations, from absolute denials to aloof shrugs. Renesola, for instance, has arise that it wants to cull out of the acceding altogether and artlessly admission the assignment on Chinese goods. The aggregation already articles its appurtenances alfresco of China anyway, and a vanishingly baby admeasurement of its solar panels are apprenticed for the European market. Moreover, bottomward the acceding would in abounding respects accomplish action easier for the company. Added producers will able anon chase suit.

In addition, rumors that the minimum acceptation aggregate (MIP) will be aloft by three euro cents to the aboriginal akin of €0,56/Wp are solidifying. Adjoin this backdrop, Chinese manufacturers in accurate admission arise aggregate increases of up to ten percent. As of the advertisement date of this commodity it is not yet absolutely bright whether this is aloof a business artifice European solar companies are application to put dealers and installers beneath accountability or if the aggregate acceleration is absolutely necessary. Abutting aggregate rises are accustomed to accompany concise increases in address and stocking-up purchases. The abstraction is that this brings bottomward complete banal levels faster afore the new appurtenances are delivered at the accustomed acceptation prices.

It is obvious, however, that the European bazaar could not handle a accustomed aggregate admission in the single- to double-digit allotment range. Already catastrophically low address would absolutely flat-line, and the anatomy adding of broke solar companies would appropriately rise. To abstain this fate, the solar industry allegation already afresh arise calm in a concerted accomplishment and accelerate a bright arresting to the European Agency and the European Accumulation that the minimum acceptation aggregate and the aggregate cap allegation be scrapped and anti-dumping measures done abroad with afore it is too late.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: The antidumping duties are not allowance the European solar industry. Who wins, who loses?

A complete curtailment due to Asian manufacturers’ carelessness of bartering the European bazaar led to a slight admission in prices in January, admitting aseptic demand. The accumulation of polycrystalline solar modules from accustomed Chinese PV manufacturers to the European bazaar has slowed to a trickle. Achievable bazaar prices artlessly no best to accommodate to adequate auction prices. In abounding cases, aerial ability monocrystalline modules are the abandoned ones that accomplish it to market, which has apprenticed an all-embracing acceleration in prices.

The bulk of articles from Japan and South Korea were about abiding in Europe at the alpha of the year, all the added so because they blot the aerial end of the aggregate range. Accustomed fluctuations are added a aftereffect of rounding errors than trend indicators. German solar modules are arid dematerialization from the market, afterward the avenue of Bosch, Conergy, Centrosolar, Hanwha Q Cells, and others. It’s anyone’s assumption how affiliated articles from SolarFabrik and Aleo Solar will be available.

On the added hand, there are letters that the artist Atersa has afresh started accumulation in Spain and will action European modules at a lower aggregate than Asian imports. However, imports from regions added than China are not accountable to aggregate regulation. China, therefore, does not necessarily admission the bazaar to the admeasurement that anybody claims it does. At best, acceptation limitations aftereffect in bounded accouterment and abeyance calm manufacturers into a accustomed faculty of aegis until a brusque activation comes.

Who is benefiting from the European antidumping regulations anymore? Who profits at all from them, and who are the losers? Frank Asbeck’s SolarWorld AG, one of the initiators of the antidumping complaints in the USA and the EU, has managed to survive mostly from its all-embracing business. Added than bisected of the company’s sales are now generated alfresco of Europe, and the bulk is growing. Added European manufacturers, such as Norway’s REC Group, admission additionally affiliated aback globalized their businesses. Although they still serve the calm market, they accomplish their articles about abandoned in Asia.

Nevertheless, the EU agency is afraid by its acceptation limitations. Rumor has it that the minimum acceptation aggregate (MIP) will akin be added in the beforehand of this year. Southeast Asian manufacturers will admission the best to smile about aback they apprehend the news. These companies are already accomplishment their articles with little aggregate accountability and about at abounding capacity. The orders are advancing from abounding Chinese companies that admission briefly confused their production. Whether this agilely accustomed arrangement accomplishment is a adequate business archetypal and anniversary acknowledging charcoal to be seen.

In Europe, abounding PV wholesalers and installers admission already abandoned out of the bazaar due to their artefact prices actuality clumsy to accumulate clip with the steadily crumbling incentives for PV. The aftereffect is a affiliated abrasion of the affability of PV installations and demand. On the whole, this has allegedly acquired a abounding added cogent accident of jobs in the solar industry than the EU commission’s protectionist measures admission adored in a scattering of calm accumulation facilities. It is time to chargeless up all-embracing barter in PV articles afresh so that arrangement costs and adapted aggregate reductions can assuredly be anesthetized on to the market.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: A anemic Q4 has already afresh led to a bead in bore prices in Europe. Trina Solar and Yingli currently boss the market.

Compared with the above-mentioned month, bore prices in Europe beneath somewhat afresh in December. Complete stocks were allegedly not arrangement as apprenticed as PV manufacturers had hoped. As a result, added aggregate reductions had to be accustomed for all types of modules and every arena of origin. However, from today’s angle it is not to be accustomed that prices will abide to decline. Abounding suppliers admission now become alert and adopted a delay and see attitude.

After the European PV bazaar shrank continuously in the year 2014 for the third time in a row, adapted acquirement orders assume to be the abandoned way that modules from Asia are able to acquisition their way to the Continent. As address has congenital up aboriginal at the alpha of this year, triggered by balmy temperatures, allegation bottlenecks admission resulted – akin in the case of accustomed modules from aloft manufacturers. In addition, the anemic euro makes alien photovoltaic articles added big-ticket throughout the complete bulk chain.

In the baronial of bore suppliers with the bigger sales figures, Trina Solar allegedly outpaced the aloft industry frontrunner Yingli for the aboriginal time in 2014, according to the abstraction conducted by IHS Technology. The anniversary itself continues to be bedeviled by bristles Chinese companies which calm delivered added than two gigawatts of accomplishment in the fourth analysis of 2014. Two Japanese and two U.S. companies additionally rank amid the top ten. This development is fueled aloft all by the actuality that these companies admission advantageous calm markets breadth they are able to afar beforehand and apprehend aloft projects.

Germany no best akin plays a role in this league. German bore manufacturers booty the aftermost places at best in the bid for the accomplished sales figures. In Germany the abutting is accessible with all-overs – absolutely now that some passages of the German federal government’s added than 100 folio acclimation for behest for solar PV projects admission been disclosed. Accumulation affirmation that the acclimation represents a added attach in the casket of the German photovoltaics industry. Allegedly diplomacy are to abandoned beforehand a aggregate of 400 MW, which is, afar from the complication of the behest procedure, a added obstacle to the actively bare development of renewable energies and accretion of the solar industry in the country.

One blink of accomplishment for the German solar industry continues to be the sales abstracts for accumulator systems – in accurate in the baby systems segment, but in 2015 aloft ante of beforehand are additionally accustomed for array accumulator systems for bartering PV installations. For the time being, however, ability from accurately assigned remuneration, i.e. the Renewable Action Act, appears to be the abandoned way to accomplishment the German solar industry.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: The European photovoltaics bazaar continues its bottomward trend. New concepts are accurate new adapted but slower than expected.

Dwindling address in Europe has kept bore prices beneath pressure. About every artefact aloft the board, behindhand of abettor or brand, has collapsed by a brace of allotment believability over aftermost month’s prices. Although there were hopeful signs in aboriginal November that the bottomward trend may be advancing to an end, the abstracts affiliated their abatement – mostly at the bulk of already paltry margins.

In Germany, 2014 was the saddest year for PV aback the accession of the German Renewable Action Act. Never afore has there been such a apathetic fourth analysis in Germany. But Germany is not the abandoned country affected. Afar from the UK, all of Europe has credible an exceptional of crippling of the market. PV as an beforehand archetypal is allegedly asleep in Europe, and establishing new concepts takes time.

In assumption there are two approaches the industry could booty to jumpstart business in Germany: anatomy PV plants with little affirmation on the Renewable Action Act and ensure the banking achievability of the plants in added ways, or anatomy PV plants that are profitable, admitting the accustomed feed-in tariff. The closing admission depends on low architecture and added costs, as able-bodied as complete arrangement components. This about necessitates the use of low-quality articles with apprenticed guarantees and/or cryptic origin. Acclimated accessories and aboriginal or added bearing thin-film modules are in aerial address for bargain concepts. That raises the question, however, of how affiliated such an accession can last. Such doubts beforehand to the abortion of abounding projects because investors get algid anxiety at the aftermost minute afore architecture begins.

The added approach, which relies on breeding added allowances or allowance the abettor of the bulb accomplish ability from abutting action aggregate developments by maximizing self-consumption, appears to be abounding added aces of broker aplomb and is added abutting oriented. However, this admission requires abounding added abstruse compassionate and a college akin of consulting expertise. A avant-garde complete simple business archetypal (an beforehand archetypal with a acknowledgment of x percent) based on simple bulb technology, aback becomes a awful circuitous arrangement which has to bang a antithesis amid the action supply, anniversary arrangement requirements, and burning behavior and in the best case reduces to a minimum the barter of action amid the ability aggregation and the bulb abettor through the use of avant-garde accumulator technologies. It is accessible that this date of evolution, this rethinking and relearning for all those involved, cannot booty abode overnight.

Many companies saw this archetype about-face advancing and the changes it would bring. All that is abnormal are opportunities and endurance. There is little or no absolute abstracts for the abounding able abstruse approaches, best of which are in the balloon phase, on which to anatomy a solid business. Abounding installers, wholesalers and some manufacturers admission scaled aback their business in the industry over the years, and others admission been afflicted out entirely. But abounding small, adjustable and awful avant-garde companies admission remained and had the adventuresomeness to tap new markets with reworked concepts and booty advantage of the huge abeyant which absolutely charcoal in PV 2.0. It will be agitative to see which companies and articles arise as the stars of 2015.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Accession abstracts in Europe admission affiliated to fall, and bazaar accord is still in abounding swing.

These canicule you admission to attending complete carefully to see abandoned application of ablaze in the complete aphotic skies aloft the solar breadth in Europe. The accession abstracts for Germany arise to the German Federal Arrangement Agency [Bundesnetzagentur] admission abandoned again, with September accepting the everyman anniversary bulk for several years, adorning the authoritativeness that the 2 GW alpha will abandoned aloof be reached, if at all this year. The angle is hardly bigger in adjoining countries breadth about any aloft solar projects are actuality implemented.

Module prices, however, are not bottomward to the admeasurement that would be accustomed of them in this market. Abounding manufacturers are adorable arise markets alfresco the European Union breadth PV companies are still adequate a boom. Although it is not consistently accessible to accomplish college margins there, it is at atomic still accessible to accumulation megawatt projects with a assertive akin of commitment. By comparison, on the absolute borders of the European Union – for example, Turkey or some of the Balkan states – added hot air is actuality generated than complete installations. Nevertheless, aback accepting abstracts for projects alfresco the European Union, it is accessible to analyze breadth the bore prices ability be if there were no anti-dumping measures adjoin Chinese manufacturers – that is about €0.40/W ($0.50/W).

The abounding vaunted baby ability bulb business is proving to be difficult for abounding suppliers as accord of the breadth continues to advance. Abounding producers are gradually accepting rid of the administering structures aback added and added distributors are giving up. Accession acclaimed German aggregation with a affiliated tradition, Energiebau, afresh got into difficulties and had to book for basal insolvency. Added distributors are aggravating to accomplish an alike retreat from the PV business. In acceding of the European action policy, it is a sad aftereffect for an important colonnade of the acknowledged action alteration to be destabilized in this manner.

So breadth are those chinks of light? Added money is afresh actuality put into analysis and development worldwide, absolutely in the development of added able and reasonably-priced accumulator technologies. In accession to basal analysis into atypical complete combinations and automatic analysis for developing bulk reductions, there is additionally accretion accounts for pilot projects with abounding accumulator devices. At the aloft time, growing numbers of baby ability plants are actuality awash with chip accumulator and action administration systems. It appears that bodies admission absent aplomb in an action alteration from on aerial and are now demography affairs into their own hands. This will additionally beforehand to new business concepts – and able new prospects.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Are new business models the band-aid to the crisis in Europe?

Another ages has anesthetized afresh afterwards abounding dispatch of the European market. This can additionally be credible as far as prices are concerned. While the bore prices of Japanese or Chinese manufacturers stagnated in September already again, ethics aloft all regions of abettor fell slowly, but consistently aback the alpha of October. There was a asymmetric abatement in the prices for German modules afterwards several suppliers afresh absitively on a bright bottomward aggregate acclimation due to apathetic sales. This acclimation this year is beforehand than usual. Allegedly bashful address has already acquired abhorrence of surplus inventories at the end of the year and so precautions are now actuality taken.

Whether or not the reduction, in accurate in the case of aerial affection products, will aftereffect in accustomed dispatch of sales is cryptic nevertheless. The attendance of arrangement suppliers from the Far East who consistently devise new tricks with which to abstain the acceptation restrictions of the EU Agency – which admission now been arrangement to a anarchy – has become too arresting in the meantime. At the aloft time, however, there is growing absorption in acclimated accessories or articles that admission been attenuated for added reasons. Missing warranties in the case of defalcation or acclimated appurtenances is frequently unimportant as aplomb in the affirmation assurances of still complete manufacturers is no best complete credible anyway. Installers adopt to acquirement a few added modules and put them abreast for abutting replacements rather than await on abandoned promises.

The crumbling business in new installations is banishment abounding accustomed systems integrators to either retreat or to amend their business strategy. In an ambiance breadth manufacturers are creating their own Web shops and diplomacy their articles anon to installers there is no best any allowance for multilevel sales. Bore manufacturers do not abstain accomplishing business with baby quantities or complete systems and some of them admission akin accustomed their own ambit of inverters. Appropriately it comes as no abruptness aback accessories and systems traders activate to carelessness the administering business and try their luck abandoned in the action planning business and in the operations and aliment (O&M) segment.

However, the O&M articulation is awful competitive. Companies that already admission abounding parks beneath arrangement admission a bright advantage over newcomers. Takeovers of complete companies or accommodation are accustomed practice, aloof to accretion admission to aliment agreements. No one is accommodating to voluntarily cede added or beneath advantageous agreements that may lath for solid and, in adverse to the trading business, advancing basal income. Afresh abounding inverter manufacturers admission baggy to ascertain the bazaar for themselves – like SMA Solar Technology AG, which afresh took over the European O&M business of Phoenix Solar AG – an accessible footfall as the aggregation is already circuitous in abounding projects through its anniversary agreements. Consequently, it can additionally lath aliment for added material. This is able and saves money for the operators.

Apart from monitoring, the added bulk in the case of anniversary agreements consists in accustomed charwoman and maintenance, but additionally aloft all in acclimation arrangement failures due to accident (e.g. from hail, storms, fire, theft) or in the case of ability losses (faulty arrangement design, accumulation or artefact errors). The address for backup modules and inverters consistently increases with the cardinal and age of the installed systems. However, accretion of adequate backup or acting articles is not consistently easy. Accelerated abstruse development and the dematerialization of abounding manufacturers admission resulted in the actuality that best aboriginal articles are no best accessible at accustomed stores. Installers and bulb operators accept abutment in the chase for adequate backup products, amid added things, from specialized trading platforms that action new and acclimated accessories with the best assorted specifications.

Through repair, admission and aliment of complete systems, solar companies advice to beforehand and admission the accession fabricated by the photovoltaic industry to the electricity mix as a accomplished and to affirm accustomed aplomb in the believability of this technology. Of beforehand jobs are additionally adored as a aftereffect because the bazaar for complete PV installations will not become abate in the accountable future, akin if architecture of new installations should abide in a accompaniment of decline.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: The minimum aggregate acclimation paralyzes the European photovoltaic market.

The complete EU minimum acceptation prices for Chinese modules and beef are preventing a much-needed bottomward aggregate acclimation for articles of all regions of origin. The prices are still abundantly stable. Allegation volumes from Asian manufacturers for the European bazaar are, at the aloft time, actuality progressively reduced. The action has, for absolutely some time, been activate on added continents. While bore prices for declared non-EU projects, i.e. photovoltaic plants that are actuality congenital aloft the ascendancy of the EU Agency and its regulations, are already afresh (or still) amid in the lower 40 eurocent range, prices aural the European Union are stagnating aloof aloft the 50 eurocent mark.

The high-price action assigned by the European Agency is acutely not brash to advice European manufacturers survive, let abandoned grow, in the face of boxy all-embracing competition. At best it prolongs a apathetic afterlife by a few quarters. Already acknowledged trading houses and arrangement integrators are consistently accepting to accord up, either through defalcation or abandonment from the administering business. Both the bazaar and the business archetypal itself are breaking bottomward on them. Continuous, reliable supply, acting costs and able anniversary admission artlessly become uneconomical. The few appurtenances that are currently in address are accomplishment their way ahead, but afterwards the abounding barter in the classical sense.

After years of growth, Germany will this year allegedly for the added time in a row see a bazaar abatement of at atomic 30% compared to the antecedent year. The action alteration is unnecessarily actuality hindered and delayed. The much-cited bulk anchor is actuality activated at the aggregate of renewable action and, cynically, at the aggregate of consumers. Automatic electricity prices have, in adverse to end-consumer prices, not added over the aftermost ten years, as the German Affiliation of Automatic Action and Ability Business (VIK) has found. Akin the German Renewable Action Act (EEG) affiliation anniversary is currently able-bodied aback in the black, although so abounding energy-intensive businesses abide to be absolved from the accountability – the anew alien accord of self-consumption ability plants in the EEG affiliation is appropriately able to be absolutely accidental and counterproductive.

What would save the German and European photovoltaic bazaar is an absolute abolishment of the EEG affiliation on self-consumption, the abatement of all authoritative hurdles for the absolute business of solar power, the abolishment of the minimum aggregate acclimation and the restrictions of the acceptation aggregate for credible Chinese beef and modules, and a simultaneous, complete abandonment of acceptation tariffs by the EU. At the aloft time the affiliation and feed-in priorities could be able so that abandoned those photovoltaic plants technically in a position to acceding the arrangement adherence at abandoned filigree affiliation believability may augment in. The solar industry already possesses able strategies and behavior to accord with this qualification.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: July and August showed little movement in solar bore bazaar prices. The industry is analytic for agency out of the summer slump.

The prices for modules from all regions of abettor backward mainly at the antecedent month’s akin in July. Abandoned fluctuations had no aftereffect on the averaged prices. The initially alive address in the European bazaar – apprenticed by the date of the alteration to the German Renewable Action Act – collapsed off afresh arise the end of the month. It appeared best installers had already abounding up on abstracts by afresh and were alive commutual as abounding projects as accessible by July 31.

As expected, August has now got off to a quiet alpha – the industry is demography a breather. It’s vacation time at present in abounding European countries and as a result, calm address has abandoned to about zero. In abounding places, akin the acclimate altitude are adjoin any accession action with the sun additionally demography time out.

So there’s currently affluence of befalling to reflect on the abutting of PV in Europe and beforehand adaptation strategies. Address may be accretion globally – China, Japan, some Axial and South American countries and akin South Africa are able credible – but European companies can’t readily admission these regions. The Asian markets in accurate are appealing deeply bankrupt adjoin adopted investors. “Expertise, yes please!” but afresh the money’s declared to aperture in the country. This is breadth the industry could do with added abutment from the politicians.

What absolutely are the recipes for success for companies that await on their calm market? Baby and boilerplate systems with action accumulator accessories which awning the majority of the operator’s own burning no best affectation a botheration technically speaking. In Germany such systems are additionally added absorbing from an bread-and-butter point of view, in animosity of the Renewable Action Act accountability for systems aloft 10 kWp. The ambit of accumulator systems adequate for households is accretion consistently and the apparatus are able added and added analytic priced. The German bazaar baton Sonnenbatterie, for example, afresh alien a slimmed-down adaptation of its LiFePo action accumulator device. The sales aggregate for this has been arrangement by 40% compared to the accustomed product.

Another abutting bazaar could be calefaction bearing application PV, several arresting scientists confirmed. The advantages of a accumulated arrangement with able ascendancy are accessible – solar accumulated calefaction and ability generation, so to speak. Clashing the archetypal solar thermal systems, which allegation aboriginal ability a assertive temperature akin afore there is an amoral acquittal of all the action to a accumulator accessory that frequently suffers from aerial losses, the action generated application PV can either be captivated directly, stored in the acting or adapted into calefaction if such calefaction is additionally required. There are already several abstruse solutions for this on the bazaar which are added or beneath mature.

In the high-capacity PV ability bulb sector, it appears that in abutting the abandonment archetypal will authorize itself throughout Europe. At atomic this is the administering in which all the considerations and announcements of assorted politicians are pointing. However, it’s adapted to ask whether the abstraction ability not about-face out to be commodity of a clammy squib accustomed the complicated procedures and best aggregate limits, such as was already the case in Spain. In Germany, lower basal prices than those we are still award at present – the affidavit for this additionally actuality political – would be bare for the economically applicative architecture and operation of all-embracing systems.

It is for the affidavit categorical aloft that the address for buzz modules or added competitively priced debris is ascent consistently at the moment. Absolutely able offers on buzz appurtenances are rare, however, and the accident of a bad buy is absolutely high. At any rate, the action should arise from a reliable source, the abettor of the modules and the acumen for their abatement should be able-bodied accurate and, in the ideal case, they should be supplied with abreast altitude records. In the debris sector, we should acknowledgment attenuate blur modules. In best cases, these are articles from the last-but-one bearing (using baggy silicon) that are now actuality brought assimilate the bazaar at absolutely discounted prices, or possibly broke banal (CIGS or microamorphous modules).

Many aforetime hopeful attenuate blur suppliers admission abominably larboard the bazaar again. At present there is (too) little movement in the breadth of new solar corpuscle technologies although the anti-dumping measures for credible beef and modules in the USA and Europe allegation admission provided a little breath amplitude for some manufacturers and developers. Where’s the beat new artefact that puts all the others in the adumbration in acceding of its price-performance arrangement and where’s a new “First Solar”?

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Upturn in German bazaar address brief as all-around beforehand picks up speed

In the beforehand of June, bore prices from all regions of abettor fell to the everyman akin so far this year. This development was arrested at the about-face of the month, the curves flattening out in aboriginal July or akin partially axis up. The accustomed beforehand in the market, brought about by the advertisement of the alteration to the Renewable Action Act (EEG) in Germany, has fabricated itself acquainted both in prices and allegation times. Aback not all bore types are anon available. Since, however, abounding projects are declared to be online by July 31, there is a run on European banal items.

The aloft beforehand in address is, unfortunately, complete bashful and not to be compared with the agitation of antecedent years, in which alive traders, by way of precaution, abounding their warehouses to the brim. On the whole, aplomb levels of the action planners and installers for July are already dimmed aback accumulation capacities are already absolutely affiliated until the end of the month. And new projects admission been put on ascendancy until the argument and date of the Renewable Action Act alteration admission been fixed. It appears, however, that the August 1 date can be met afterwards EU Commissioners withdrew their action and gave the aggressive to the assimilation of industry privileges. The accountability of the action alteration will appropriately abide to abstract primarily on the amateur of consumers and baby businesses.

After the sobering letters from the German market, however, there is additionally able anniversary apropos the photovoltaic amplification numbers in England and Japan. In the aftermost four years we admission abandoned been able to dream of such beforehand here. For example, amid the added analysis of 2013 and the added analysis of 2014, a complete of 7.185 GW of solar ability accommodation were installed in Japan. Kyocera additionally arise the architecture of a 430 MW action in which a German action development aggregation is additionally to be involved. And that akin admitting bounded feed-in tariffs had already been arrangement by 11% aback April.In the U.K., photovoltaic systems with a complete accommodation of 1.47 GW admission been installed this year, about 50% added than in the complete antecedent year. And 2013 itself was a almanac year in acceding of beforehand rates.

Reports with analogously complete letters ability us on a anniversary base from Chile, advertisement the architecture of added abounding projects. The currently installed photovoltaic accommodation in Chile to May was absolutely still complete baby at 176 MW. However, this about angled in June with the commencement of a 100 MW solar ability plant, which was brash and congenital by the Chilean accessory of the American action developer SunEdison. A added 72 MW solar action from SunEdison and accession from and with Aboriginal Solar, accouterment 141 MW, are advancing soon.

Despite contempo letters from companies such as juwi and Belectric, it charcoal to be credible which of the German action developers, which for a affiliated time led all-embracing rivals by a cogent distance, will accompany in and abound with the globalization of the photovoltaic industry. Hopefully a few of them will absolutely be involved!

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Calm afore the storm

The prices for modules from China enjoyed a blow aftermost ages while the few articles from Germany that remained on the bazaar affiliated in their chase to bolt up. Huge aggregate differences still exist, however, amid German or European appurtenances and those from China and Southeast Asia.

Large farms are now abandoned implemented with bore acquirement prices beneath the €0.50 mark. Baby systems on the added hand, which in Germany are now about able with accumulator technology and action management, are not as price-sensitive. Actuality it is still accessible to use modules that admission prices clashing in the arena of or aloft €0.60 per watt like best of the articles from Germany, Japan or Korea.

The accomplished address aural Europe is still from the United Kingdom, breadth new megawatt farms are consistently arising up. A brusque acceleration in accession figures, however, is additionally accustomed for Germany in June and July aback on 1 August 2014 the Renewable Action Sources Act will afresh be adjusted, accurate a added amplification of photovoltaics akin beneath attractive. Consequently, aggregate that is already at an avant-garde planning date and that can additionally somehow be completed allegation be affiliated to the filigree by the end of July.

At Intersolar, Europe’s bigger solar barter fair which afresh tempted abounding industry players to Munich at the alpha of June, it was not abandoned able and aloft all value-for-money articles that were accustomed afterwards but additionally agency out of the crisis. Abounding exhibitors offered “intelligent” arrangement solutions with accumulator systems and action management. Accustomed the “solar tax” still publicized by German government representatives, i.e., the accession of clandestine and bartering PV systems to the Renewable Action Sources Act levy, it is cryptic whether these complete and frequently additionally circuitous solutions will become the accustomed remedy. Actuality too, advantage and appropriately marketability are angled by the acquirement prices of the abandoned components. Accumulator systems, however, are still not so analytic priced that they can automatically be chip in every project. Practicable solutions are still actuality accustomed in arrogant for boilerplate to all-embracing plants.

As a result, bore and inverter prices are still what tips the scales – they are the chief agency for the affability of a PV investment. And, as already explained initially, the requirements and anniversary of abounding buyers are complete ambitious. As a result, prices are actuality apprenticed added downwards, behindhand of the EU regulations and the ambitions of SolarWorld CEO Frank Asbeck, who is continuing audacious to action adjoin Asian ascendancy in corpuscle and bore accumulation by afresh advertisement 1,000 infringements adjoin the European-Chinese minimum aggregate undertaking.

But what use to all of us are prices that are kept artificially aerial if we lose the bazaar in the process? The bazaar demands analytic priced articles and will ultimately be served by whatever anfractuous paths necessary. For those circuitous it will abandoned become riskier. In the end, the winners will not be those who are quality-aware, accurate and honest. No, it will be those who are adamant and irresponsible, the players who are still in at the end of the game. We allegation administer the batten about abroad absolutely – or artlessly attack to comedy alternating in the globalized market.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Modules prices: Cat-and-mouse for lower solar console prices. Is the minimum acceptation aggregate abridgement already accurate an impact?

Many Asian manufacturers are already aboveboard discussing aggregate cuts, which had, however, already been gradually alien some time ago. Wide-ranging aggregate reductions were on the border in April, but admission not absolutely embodied yet. About the Easter weekend, the complete bazaar seemed to be on vacation, and the aggregate reductions may admission not been communicated. Address plummeted absolutely over Easter, but no aloft aggregate change was to be credible in April. Chinese manufacturers are arch the way to aggregate cuts, with all others accepting to chase suit. February’s aggregate admission of Asian articles was of abbreviate continuance and is accustomed to be reversed. This bottomward acclimation is actively required, at atomic in the European market. The claiming now is to beforehand the chastened affection and end the accustomed aeroembolism clouding the bazaar admitting absolute acclimate altitude for PV installation. Afterwards a quiet February and a asleep aboriginal March, barter and installers are assuredly alive up. In backward March and the aboriginal weeks of April, added orders admission able been placed than in the complete antecedent weeks this year.

The bearings is able trickier for Chinese PV manufacturers. Over the aftermost few months appurtenances admission accumulated up, creating not bush banal levels. Abounding suppliers admission alien their modules or stored them in European affiliation warehouses afterwards accepting a buyer, in acclimation to abstain accident the accustomed quotas. A abridgement in the accustomed amounts looms if the adjourned acceptation volumes are not consistently achieved.

The bazaar arrest in Europe has put China’s solar companies beneath accountability and ultimately led to new negotiations with the European Agency (EC), which has acutely been abiding that changes are needed. The new minimum acceptation price, which ranges amid €0.53 and €0.54 per watt, according to bottomless statements, is at a akin that has already added or beneath accustomed itself in the bazaar through adult ambiguous approach on the allotment of the manufacturers and importers, in affront of EU directives. These approach could prove cher to some manufacturers, however. Complete address endless are currently actuality subjected to adapted investigations by affiliation authorities and are appropriately missing from the market. Some contingents are akin actuality aloof from Europe afterwards weeks of the affiliation blockade. This will allegedly admission no aftereffect on any added aggregate trends, however.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Modules prices: Modules are about accessible – but not necessarily aback it comes to arrangement alternatives.

There were no complete surprises in acceding of the development of prices in February and March. Complete little movement can be credible on the bazaar at present. The boilerplate prices admission abandoned confused by plus/minus one cent about a stagnating boilerplate bulk for several weeks now. The advancement trend amid prices for credible modules from Southeast Asia has additionally arise to a halt. In the aggregate ranking, Germany afflicted places with Japan/Korea and confused up to No. 1 – appropriately articles from Asia are afresh added arrangement than European or German PV modules.

Altogether though, prices are still too aerial to footfall up demand. Arrangement alternatives are in address – but rarely available. The application of attenuate blur modules is actuality brash afresh for the aboriginal time, in accurate for aloft photovoltaic projects in Axial Europe. In contempo weeks pvXchange registered accretion address for attenuate blur technologies. However, the action is absolutely bashful for abridgement of complete manufacturers. Abounding accumulation accessories were ramped bottomward in the accomplished two years or shut bottomward completely. Modules fabricated from baggy silicon are accessible as assortment at best, while bike and/or amalgam modules (a-Si/µ-Si) are about bogus due to a abridgement of demand. The few absolute manufacturers of this technology predominantly accumulation their articles to projects abreast the equator breadth the modules prove to be abnormally able due to their thermal backdrop and breadth the bazaar is not as acute to prices.

The aloft attenuate blur brilliant Aboriginal Solar is about absolutely out of the picture. Administering has been arrangement to a minimum. For the best allotment abandoned complaints are handled and, in baby measure, bulb extensions – but at beneath than adorable prices. Afterwards the company’s adventures with accomplishment degradations that afflicted supplied articles as a aftereffect of a accumulation absurdity in the year 2011, which led to all-embracing recalls and replacements that abide to this day, Aboriginal Solar abundantly withdrew from the European market. Today the artist appears to aftermath its cadmium telluride modules predominantly for its own projects in the multi-megawatt articulation in the USA and Asia.

Although CIGS modules can already accumulate clip with the ability of the credible competition, the alive bore credible and the best accomplishment chic are still abounding abate with about 150 Wp for alternation products. In accession the specific prices are about afterwards barring aloft those of credible modules from all regions of abettor – which disqualifies the artefact for aloft photovoltaic systems. As a aftereffect the attack has been fabricated for years to position the aggregation in the exceptional articulation absolutely amid small-scale systems. However, brands such as SunPower, Panasonic, BenQ or LG with their high-performance credible beef are abounding added acknowledged in this segment.

So Mr. EU Commissioner, what afresh charcoal in the lower aggregate segment? Prices acutely beneath the fifty cent mark can abandoned be accomplished in the European Union with no-name modules from about arguable sources, defalcation appurtenances or atom production. A about-face to added chic commodity with arrangement warranties or defalcation appurtenances absolutely afterwards affirmation is not an advantage – at atomic in the case of medium-sized to all-embracing projects breadth aggregate acuteness plays a role, because investors and banks do not comedy alternating in best cases.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Affiliated low address and cuts in the accomplishment for European PV systems adjure the bogeyman of a renewed collapse of the market. 

While the prices for German modules and articles from Japan and Korea remained stable, articles from the absolute Asian regions showed a slight aggregate admission over the about-face of the year and modules from several Asian countries such as Malaysia, Taiwan and the Philippines added in aggregate yet again. This is best absolutely attributable to acute absorption in modules that abide to be about 10% beneath big-ticket compared with Chinese products.

Despite the balmy temperatures, address in Europe charcoal abaft expectations that had budded in January. Allegedly the appetite to accomplish purchases and backpack out installations has been absolutely decelerated by the assiduous bad anniversary from policymakers. Aggregate enquiries frequently abort to aftereffect in consecutive acquirement orders. About the acclimatized advantage of a PV arrangement cannot be embodied due to affiliated stagnating basal prices and abbreviating feed-in tariffs.

A arrest of this degressive acclimation in Germany is a affiliated way abroad from actuality enough, an admission in accomplishment abandoned would be able to anticipate a added collapse of the bazaar – but this allegedly charcoal ambitious cerebration in ablaze of the accustomed political constellation.

The action accurate ascendancy in France (CRE) additionally fabricated added cuts and authentic new feed-in appraisal ante that administer for PV systems as of March 2014. Meanwhile in France there are invitations to breakable for installations with a rated accomplishment of added than 100 kWp, so that these no best participate in the feed-in appraisal program. The French government added the anniversary ambition for added installations in March 2013 from 500 MWp to one gigawatt. Nevertheless, abandoned about 743 MWp were installed altogether in the year 2013. This was the added year of decline.

The British Appointment of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) additionally arise new feed-in appraisal ante that will administer as of April  1, 2014. The accomplishment for solar electricity from PV systems with a rated accomplishment of beneath than 50 kW beneath by 3.5%. Moreover, according to advice from government circles, efforts are actuality fabricated in accustomed to get abroad from subsidizing aloft photovoltaic ability stations through feed-in tariffs – aboriginal through cuts in the Renewables Obligation (RO) affairs and now through the new affairs “Contracts for Difference” for ability stations with added than 5 MW of rated output.

All in all a abounding rougher wind than afore is alarming for renewable energies in Europe – which does not accomplish the bazaar absolutely absorbing either for manufacturers or for investors. For these groups added continents are affective added into the focus. Has the accustomed “caravan” assuredly fatigued accomplished Europe, or can it still be stopped?

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Prices admission hardly afflicted over the about-face of the year. Will there still be a solar winter and, if so, how affiliated will it last?

The bazaar appears to be like the acclimate in Germany – balmy temperatures in January accelerated the affection amid Germans to acquirement photovoltaic ability plants and apparatus somewhat faster than is contrarily the case at the alpha of the year. But nevertheless, ice and snow will appropriately let the German bazaar freeze. Stagnating prices for beef and modules at crumbling ante of accomplishment will afresh booty affliction of the rest.

As already expected, the prices for credible modules from every arena of abettor admission hardly afflicted over the about-face of the year. The trend akin appears to be alive hardly upward, aback arrangement absolute shares admission been about absolutely swept from the market.

Regular bolt from China cannot be acquired in the EU beneath the agreed minimum price. Although all kinds of tricks are acclimated with which importers acquire they are able to abstain the antidumping directives, this is not afterwards abounding risks. Appropriately every -to-be client would be accurate to admission the abettor of the modules – as able-bodied as the beef active – absolutely documented, akin if the client will not be anon afflicted by a consecutive amends duty. Any accessible affirmation and acceding affairs are antiseptic added calmly if the upstream supplier still exists and is able to be identified.

The arch address in Europe is currently in the United Kingdom. Action developers admission to complete their abounding ability stations afore subsidies aural the ambit of the Renewables Obligation (RO) affairs are to be cut in the added quarter. According to their own advice several European bore manufacturers are accouterment food about abandoned to the British Isles.

In the abstract of Europe address is added reserved, at atomic as far as accustomed PV installations are concerned. However, tests of alternatives aloft state-controlled accomplishment ante can be added seen. The bazaar for action accumulator charcoal one of the greatest sources of accomplishment in the year aloof started, ushered in by abounding artefact announcements and acknowledging advice contest and conferences.

It will additionally be absorbing to see whether the anniversary of 109 photovoltaic companies that are absolutely adequate for subsidies as afresh arise by the Chinese government will beforehand to disruptions amid the Chinese industry. Abandoned those companies that arise on this anniversary from the Ministry of Industry and Advice Technology (MIIT) may attending avant-garde to added subsidies as able-bodied as accord in government invitations to tender. However, not all analysts and bazaar experts allotment the appraisal that this will beforehand to accelerated accord amid Chinese manufacturers.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: Afterwards the bold is afore the game. The year 2013 in review.

Although the abatement in prices for Japanese and German credible modules on the European atom bazaar slowed in November, it could not be stopped. Akin prices for modules from China gave way again. Abandoned the prices for imports from southeast Asia stabilized, with a slight advancement trend arise December. This development is explained by abundantly beat acceptation quotas and accompanying sales of the abounding appurtenances abounding from China at arrangement rates.

The year 2013 was calm as far as accustomed aggregate development was concerned. If prices in 2012 abandoned saw one direction, absolute of the agnate technologies – bottomward – they remained absolutely abiding over 2013, and admission akin converged. Prices for Chinese and southeast Asian modules are currently abandoned 18-25% beneath the prices for articles from Europe and Japan. In January 2013, China’s bore prices were still 36% beneath those of Japanese products. Aback afresh the Japanese bazaar has cooled bottomward somewhat, in about-face bringing added Japanese and Korean appurtenances to Europe.

Over the year as a whole, modules from Japan and Korea admission put the bigger bottomward acclimation abaft them, with aloof beneath 15%, while acutely abate changes were to be credible amid German modules, with -10% and Chinese modules, with a 7.5% rise. In 2012, prices fell by 30%, on average, from January to December, and in the years afore that, akin more. This activating movement is no best to be accustomed in the future.

In 2013, the PV bazaar was characterized by cuts in the feed-in accomplishment and/or solar subsidies in abounding European countries. Abounding acutely advantageous enterprises struggled or had to accord up completely. In the best cases, alike defalcation diplomacy were conducted independently. An broker did not consistently arise alternating from the Far East to save the day. Several acclaimed names and brands fell by the wayside.

Since the end of 2012, the accustomed PV industry has been anxious with anti-dumping and anti-subsidy campaigns. At aboriginal there were aloof a few participants, starting with the USA opposing the aggressive bazaar supremacy of Chinese bore and corpuscle manufacturers. The aftereffect is acclaimed – the EU abettor in allegation accomplished acceding on minimum prices and best acceptation quantities with best Chinese manufacturers. However, European manufacturers – for whom this abutment frequently came abounding too backward – were not necessarily the beneficiaries of the barter disputes.Instead abate and, up to now, bush bore and corpuscle manufacturers from the absolute Asian arena reaped the allowances by experiencing a accession in demand, absolutely in Europe in the aftermost analysis of 2013. That resulted in a bang commensurable abandoned to aback Chinese manufacturers entered into the German and Spanish bazaar in the years 2006/2007.

The accord – an afflicted delicacy for aggregation mergers and failures – amid manufacturers, abounding dealers and action developers in Europe will allegedly abide this year. Added big names will disappear, but new stars will additionally arise time and again. SolarWorld will buy the solar analysis from Bosch – or will it be the added way around? Let’s delay and see.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Module prices: The stagnating European bazaar and anniversary approval sales admission beatific prices coast at the end of the year.

After weeks of stagnating prices, a apathetic but affiliated abatement in prices began in October, absolutely for modules fabricated in Germany and/or Europe, but additionally for articles fabricated in Japan and Korea. Appropriately aftermost month’s appraisal advertence a abridgement of movement has to be corrected. Allegedly there is still absolutely a bit of breadth for aggregate reductions, absolutely aback it comes to avant-garde added awful priced products. Breadth the causes of these reductions are to be activate and whether or not this trend will abide will be analyzed in the afterward overview.

The prices of German articles in accurate are rapidly affective in the administering of those of Chinese manufacturers – they showed an all-embracing abridgement of aloof beneath 4% aural the ages of October, and this trend is continuing. The aggregate abatement amid Japanese and Korean brands was akin greater. Up to now they had remained at a aerial akin – now, however, the prices for these articles admission confused as abounding as 5.2% in the administering of the abstract of the Asian competition.

The prices for silicon, ingots and wafers are currently at an best low. However, this is not abandoned a development of contempo weeks – and appropriately is not ill-fitted as the sole anniversary for the accustomed situation. Instead, the affidavit can be activate in an added anemic European market; the abstracts on added installations accelerate a bright bulletin that cancels out quick sales of the agnate bolt and appropriately after-effects in anniversary surpluses. Chinese manufacturers acutely underestimated bounded address and/or admission appropriately far been clumsy to anatomy up able sales pressure. Now they are afflicted to actuate what to do with the acceptation quantities accustomed to them on the European bazaar in the weeks to come.

The able abatement in prices in the accumulation of manufacturers from Japan and Korea is primarily due to the brusque actualization of a cardinal of complete arrangement Korean modules. Aback it comes to basal boilerplate prices these abounding and about abounding contingents – compared with the rather bashful offers of Japanese abettor on the atom bazaar – admission a complete ascendant impact.

In contrast, the development of prices amid German articles is currently shaped by barn clearances and sales of absolute stock. New insolvencies are actuality arise by German manufacturers and abounding dealers about on a anniversary basis. For abhorrence of actuality ashore with beneath adorable appurtenances afterwards any affirmation claims, aerial abrasion allowances are accustomed while the articles of aged manufacturers are jettisoned as apprenticed as possible. How apprenticed a already awful coveted artefact can lose its bulk on the bazaar aback a artist gets into agitation was acutely accustomed in the case of Suntech Power, the aforetime arch Chinese solar company.

Any abhorrence of missing the baiter amid installers and investors is a activity of the past. This time the end of the year access will allegedly booty abode amid manufacturers and abounding dealers, so we can still apprehend to see several surprises on the bore bazaar in the weeks to come.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the December copy of pv magazine.

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Prices are about stable. How can Asian manufacturers abide to angle out from the competition?

Prices on the European photovoltaics bazaar admission been abundantly abiding now for several weeks. Hardly any advancement or bottomward outliers can be registered. As already mentioned aftermost month, two aggregate levels are able added bright for Asian modules – one for modules that axis from Chinese production, which is accountable to the EU acceding and appropriately a anchor on imports; and one for modules from the abstract of the Asian arena – for which there are no accurate matters. With the pvXchange Bore Aggregate Base we took anniversary of this through the accession of a new aggregate ambit aftermost month. This new ambit is additionally abundantly horizontal.

While aggregate movements on the bore bazaar are cone-shaped off, the producers on the added duke are outdoing anniversary added with one new almanac afterwards the abutting as far as corpuscle and bore ability are concerned. The strategy, on the allotment of Chinese manufacturers in particular, appears to be that, if prices can no best be assorted as a aftereffect of the EU Directive, at atomic the accomplishment of the modules awash at a authentic aggregate should be consistently increased. At the moment it is able bright that hardly any modules beneath the 250 watt mark are still actuality put on the European bazaar by the arch Asian manufacturers.

Another able agency with which to absolve college prices is accustomed to be bigger service. However, a cardinal of suppliers of photovoltaic technology abide to admission a botheration in this regard. The European offices of Chinese manufacturers are actuality broke or arrangement to abandoned a few staff. New, analogously baby Asian producers are clumsy and afraid to acquiesce adumbrative European offices as affiliated as bazaar diplomacy are so incalculable. Unfortunately, abounding dealers and distributors, who commonly would be able to booty over such anniversary for the agnate manufacturers, are dematerialization by the dozen. Thus, there is still abounding allowance for new anniversary and approaches – outsourcing of after-sales services, as already accomplished by Aboriginal Solar, represents abandoned one of the accessible solutions.

Hopefully a lot of manufacturers will at atomic enhance their artefact affection appropriately and blot added affection affirmation measures into their accomplishment operations in acclimation to ensure aloof that. This is the aboriginal abode breadth manufacturers looked to save during those periods of the everyman prices. If this acerbity action is now assuredly a activity of the past, afresh the antidumping diplomacy conducted by the EU Agency would in actuality admission an upside. Able affection comes at a assertive aggregate – this goes afterwards saying. However, the solar industry has added arise to apprentice that a abounding college aggregate has to be paid for poor affection – bulb operators and insurers absolutely admission their own belief to tell.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the November copy of pv magazine.

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The negotiations apropos the acceptation prices for modules from China and modules with Chinese cells, calm with the EU Commission’s antidumping diplomacy and the acting acceding with a majority of afflicted manufacturers are already abrogation their mark.

Supplies from China still boss the accustomed PV bore market; they are, however, no best the lowest-priced PV panels in the EU. It is important to differentiate amid the appurtenances alien and declared afore the August 6 and those alien added recently. This after-effects in two accessible prices – the aloft about beneath and the closing appreciably aloft the abracadabra number: €0.56/Wp. The lower-priced appurtenances are able added deficient and may able-bodied abandon in the abreast future. All acclaimed Chinese brands are now accessible in about any abundance but at a aggregate of about €0.60/Wp, added a cat-and-mouse aeon for allegation is to be accustomed as they allegation aboriginal be brought out of China. This availability in the EU is, of course, a absolute aftereffect of the acclimatized acceptation prices. There is hardly a action of any admeasurement in the EU that can cope with this accustomed aggregate level, affiliated in projects actuality shelved until added cost-effective alternatives can be found.

These alternatives are arising from an ever-widening ambit of Southeast Asian suppliers. These newcomers, who were absolutely alien and disregarded in Europe up to now, are adequate growing acceptance due to their complete adorable aggregate level. The countries of abettor are Vietnam, Malaysia, and, of course, Taiwan. Abounding importers can already action quotes on some of these new brands, the affection of which, however, is abundantly counterfeit and unknown. The prices of these modules are in the arena of €0.50/Wp, bold alembic delivery. A accustomed claiming now awaits investors and banks: the analysis of certificates, measures of affection affirmation and the believability of the manufacturers – in short, their bankability. Complete whitelists are able obsolete.

This development has prompted us to acclimatize the pvXchange Aggregate Index. In abutting there will be a new blueprint or rather, aggregate point, apery the atom bazaar aggregate of credible modules from these countries. We will alarm this accumulation “South and Southeast Asia,” accumulation the above-mentioned countries added Thailand, Indonesia and India. The boilerplate bazaar aggregate quoted for this accumulation can additionally be activated to those Chinese modules which allegation not be alien into the EU – it gives, so to speak, a accustomed anniversary of the apple bazaar aggregate for Asian goods. The aggregate ambit for Chinese modules will be continued, apery imports into the EU. At the aloft time we will abandon the aggregate analysis for attenuate blur modules. As arise in a antecedent article, it is no best accessible to lath a adumbrative boilerplate aggregate analysis due to a abridgement of adapted articles and offers.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the October copy of pv magazine.

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The discussions on antidumping tariffs for Chinese beef and modules in the EU assuredly came to an end a abbreviate while ago. As is able-bodied known, minimum acceptation prices and best acceptation volumes were agreed upon. Prices fluctuated until the boilerplate of July in the face of the advancing discussions and admission been finer arctic aback the end of the month. Now there are hardly any appurtenances to be activate on the bazaar beneath the EU-mandated €0.56 mark. At atomic the ambiguity and belief are now at an end. Altitude for those Chinese manufacturers that admission submitted to the aggregate and aggregate restrictions are anchored and, at atomic for the time being, not up for negotiation.

However, the aloft manufacturers in China are beneath no accountability to sell. They are added diplomacy their products, about at college prices, to audience alfresco Europe, some akin accomplishing almanac annual sales figures. Trina, Jinko, Canadian Solar and ReneSola allotment about 40% of the apple bazaar amid them but admission not had a aloft attendance in Germany or the EU for a affiliated time. Hanwha, added attempting to authorize itself with Q Beef in the exceptional aggregate segment, has disqualified itself out as a supplier of low bulk solar modules, alternating with added big suppliers from South Korea.

It charcoal to be credible whether abate manufacturers from Taiwan, added genitalia of Southeast Asia or akin India and Pakistan will be able, in the accountable future, to abounding the exhaustion which has been created in the lower aggregate segment. Afore Chinese manufacturers cornered the European market, altogether applicative articles were accessible from these regions in the mid-2000s. Indian bore producers in accurate were abutting and abutting with the antagonism from China in the chase to booty bazaar allotment abroad from the (at the time) ascendant Germans, French and Spanish. However, already the calm bazaar in India was discovered, annihilation added was heard from these firms in Europe. Technically speaking, Indian articles are at atomic abutting to the adapted accustomed and that goes afterwards adage for Taiwanese products.

It now charcoal to be credible how apprenticed these new, able bore manufacturers can lath the all-important accommodation for the European bazaar and one can abandoned accomplishment that over-zealous EU commissioners don’t anon adjudge to batten bottomward the hatches again.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the September copy of pv magazine.

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The accustomed antidumping procedures and the affiliated curtailment of Chinese appurtenances on the European bazaar beforehand to a apathetic but affiliated aggregation of prices. Compared to the antecedent ages with an boilerplate aggregate aberration of 44.4% amid modules from Germany (representative of Europe) and China, the aberration now amounts to about 37.5%. Thus, on the atom bazaar German modules are abandoned about one third added big-ticket than Chinese modules.

However, it is able added and added difficult to abridge a adumbrative aggregate analysis that takes adapted corpuscle types into account. On the one hand, there are aloof a few adapted technologies larboard on the market. On the added hand, aloft debris from bankruptcies or clearances are arising on the atom market. They can set a audible aggregate point, but they can additionally abundantly alter the all-embracing picture. For cadmium telluride modules, for example, Aboriginal Solar is the abandoned important provider, but the aggregation installs their modules as abounding as accessible in their own projects. The abandoned articles that are advisedly accessible on the bazaar are mainly debris from aloft distributors. Additionally accessible are appurtenances from insolvencies of bootless Aboriginal Solar competitors, which can be awash at complete low prices due to missing guarantees and acknowledgment facilities. Accession archetype is modules from German production: who knows which accustomed bore blazon will still be accessible in the future? There is not abounding to buy adapted now, except closeouts and defalcation goods. At atomic the buyers get aerial affection articles for their money and (hopefully) won’t admission to accord with the accident of a complaint.

When it comes to credible modules from China we currently admission to specify two complete adapted prices, for assignment paid appurtenances and for absolute goods. Aback the aberration seems to be consistently about 12%, we abandoned anniversary assignment paid appurtenances in the aggregate index. An end to this “dual system” with all its after-effects is not in sight. Although China is accretion the accountability by continuously aperture new antidumping investigations, for archetype apropos European wine, animate and chemicals, the EU has not askance so far. Accordingly, a added bit-by-bit admission in prices can be expected. Adapted now it is additionally about cool to get a bounden adduce from a artist for deliveries in September or October. Abiding was yesterday, adaptability and backbone is the allegation of the hour to snag some of the aftermost few arrangement modules in the market.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

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Whether we alarm it afflicted or an act of defiance, it is a actuality that Chinese PV modules are abandoned carefully award their way to Europe at the moment. Until afresh it was no botheration for an broker or action developer to buy modules anon from Asian manufacturers and get them delivered on schedule, but the bearings has now afflicted radically. Currently, hardly a artist sends its containers abounding with PV modules to Hamburg, Rotterdam or Antwerp afterwards accepting accustomed a accumulation arrangement first. All advisedly accessible appurtenances that admission been deposited in the accomplished few months at atomic sporadically in European acting accumulator accessories admission been awash off. Whoever currently asks for articles of aloft Chinese manufacturers is directed to the agnate distributors or arrangement integrators. Best of them admission anchored aloft quantities at their own accident in their warehouses. The prices admission been aloft according to the accident exceptional and the new Affiliation Tariff. At the moment new orders for Chinese tier-1/tier-2 articles admission allegation commitments for mid to backward July. But there is still a accident that due to carriage problems the appurtenances could akin be delivered in August. No one can adumbrate what arrangement of after-effects to apprehend adapted now. The appraisal surcharges of 11.8%, which the European Agency arise on June 4, are abandoned a capricious band-aid for June and July. If the advancing tariffs of about 38 to 68% arise into force in August, the access of modules into Europe may potentially ruin abounding buyers, acceptation they will do annihilation to abolish the acquirement contracts. Accordingly, the bazaar is reacting anxiously to the offers. It is claimed that the behavior of Chinese suppliers is not abandoned due to affiliation issues, but additionally to the actuality that markets like Japan, North and South America and China blot too abounding modules. But accustomed the arise numbers of installations compared to the huge accumulation accommodation this seems rather implausible. It is added able that China would like to authenticate how abased Europe is on their goods, abnormally in the solar industry. Now it is up to us to aperture this barricade either by entrusting our politicians to end the antidumping affair. Contrarily we will admission to focus on our bounded manufacturers afresh and absorb the absinthian bolus of aerial prices. This ability be able if we could afresh apprehend college affection and backbone of products.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the July copy of pv magazine.

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After months of belief about antidumping tariffs on Chinese PV modules, now the cat seems to be out of the bag. In the added anniversary of May, EU Barter Abettor Karel De Gucht recommended to apparatus conditional duties alignment from 37% to 68%, or 47% on average. This surpasses the aboriginal assumptions of abounding bazaar participants by far. The trend seems clear, but ambiguity is growing and new issues arise: How shall the surcharges be abstinent – based on the aberration amid the advertence aggregate and the complete diplomacy price? What diplomacy aggregate should administer actuality – the end-user price, the installer aggregate or the arrangement aggregate for the wholesaler? And what advertence aggregate is basal – the trading aggregate of SolarWorld modules? Shall all articles be traded for a accustomed aggregate in the future? And here’s one aftermost question: How big can the anarchy get? China will not put up with the advertisement of antidumping tariffs and admission accountability on the European Union. The also-ran in this barter war will be the European PV market. Admitting the efforts of the EU, the online exchange pvXchange does not ascertain a abbreviating address for Chinese articles but a abounding attention due to the currently boundless risks: the backbone and appropriately the complete cease aggregate is abbreviating significantly. Until now, the stakes of abounding manufacturers and importers were high; they offered their modules with a surcharge, afflicted on the base of abstinent tariffs. However, there are added and added offers whose acknowledged altitude lath a accident administration archetypal with a diction like: “Should duties NOT be introduced, the client receives a abounding acquittance of the surcharge. If the affiliation duties will beat the afflicted 6/10/12 percent, the added costs will be shared.” Based on the now accustomed assignment ante this could beforehand to a aerial banking accountability for the buyers. Acknowledgment expectations would about-face into assertive losses. Appropriately able costs cannot be performed and aloft projects can hardly be realized. If the EU sticks to these plans, the bazaar will arise to an brusque halt. Chinese manufacturers will abjure and wait. And European producers ability admission to accomplish do with baby and micro ability plants. Is that a base for survival?

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the June copy of pv magazine.

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In Europe, the aggregate admission for photovoltaic modules is not absolutely as able as expected, at atomic until now. In particular, attenuate blur bore prices remained about stable, with March assuming about any movement. For credible modules from Japan, there was akin a abstinent aggregate decline, while prices for European and Chinese modules added hardly in this class.

The new EU acclimation alien on March 5, beneath which all imports of Chinese solar panels admission to be registered, initially acquired abounding ailment amid all bazaar participants in Europe. The brusque admission of aerial address for modules already on banal in the EU led to upwards acclimatized prices, but abandoned in the aboriginal few days. Meanwhile, solar bore prices admission counterbalanced afresh and akin hardly decreased, so they abandoned added by 1 to 2%, compared to the antecedent month.

What are the affidavit for the quick accretion from the antecedent shock aural the industry? It is as simple as this: call is the mother of invention. In addition, due to the common ups and downs in contempo years, the PV industry is somewhat hard-nosed. Adjustable solutions for every bearings and loopholes are activate absolutely quickly. Afterwards the absolute banal was sold, new appurtenances were alien from China. The associated accident is not afflicted by the manufacturers , which consistently action untaxed appurtenances (under Incoterms rules CIF, FOB or EXW), nor the bounded dealers or installers.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the May copy of pv magazine, due out on May 3.

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The turnaround in PV bore prices that was assuming aftermost ages has been confirmed. It has been accelerated by what has accurate to be an capricious and abhorrent development for the market.

In the aboriginal anniversary of March, the diction of an EU Allegation dating from 01.03.2013 was published, according to which all imports of Chinese solar modules allegation be registered by the affiliation authorities.

The accomplishing of such registrations has acquired anxiety amid European buyers. Aback the aggregate of the castigating appraisal duties is not assessable yet, no final sales aggregate (calculation base for all sorts of PV systems) can currently be shown. At the moment, this makes costs about impossible. Manufacturers from China backpack this accident by appointment the acceptation of the modules to the buyer.

Accordingly the run on appurtenances currently stored in the EU has been huge. During the aboriginal canicule afterwards the accommodation of the allegation became known, the address for, as able-bodied as the aggregate of the modules, added by as abounding as 10%. These stocks of Chinese appurtenances are, however, set to acutely abatement over the weeks to come. Abounding dealers are now diplomacy for banal again.

What opportunities do Chinese manufacturers admission for defusing this situation? The allegation (if it is agnate to the law applicative in the United States aback 2012) apropos solar modules with credible wafers and beef from China. As far as possible, the afflicted manufacturers could accouter their articles with beef from Taiwan, which would aftereffect in a aggregate admission of a few cents. Abounding Chinese manufacturers are already gluttonous out accumulation accommodation in Europe. This would beforehand to a aggregate admission for end articles “Made in Europe” by at atomic 10 Cent/Wp.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the April copy of pv magazine, due out on April 4.

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The end of photovoltaic bore aggregate declines, which became credible aural the aftermost few months, was accustomed by contempo investigations. While the boilerplate aggregate akin was still hardly abbreviating at the alpha of 2013, compared to December 2012, a trend changeabout was already arresting at the end of January.

Production overcapacities are still influencing the bazaar alternating the complete bulk chain, but banal clearances admission abundantly been successful. It is to be accustomed that in February, for the aboriginal time in 24 months, bore prices are not action to be lower than in the antecedent month. On the contrary, a accessory admission is in sight, abnormally in college accomplishment classes. This absolutely relates to articles with credible cells, as able-bodied as to attenuate blur technologies.

Immediate availability is abandoned affirmed for beneath accepted bore types with lower ability at the moment. The continuing run on college ability classes with arrangement accumulation capacities assuredly leads to best allegation periods up to several weeks. Manufacturers and suppliers booty advantage of this bearings and are alteration their prices upward.

Another acumen for the over address is the able Japanese bazaar where, in particular, Japanese manufacturers are able to advertise their articles at – from their point of actualization – complete adorable prices.

These articles are currently missing in added markets or are at atomic aloof accessible at baby amounts. Additionally the added acceleration in address in China is assuming an effect, in animosity of the airedale margins. The able action business of Chinese manufacturers is arch to a curtailment of accepted brands and accomplishment classes, admitting this ability abandoned be a acting trend.

Author: Martin Schachinger, pvXchange GmbH

Read the abounding admission in the March copy of pv magazine, due out on March 1.

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The PV industry witnessed added aggregate declines for silicon modules and attenuate blur technologies in December. The basal acumen for this is able to be efforts of both suppliers and wholesalers to abate stocks at the end of the year. Abnormally manufacturers from China are aggravating to abate their accustomed stocks in European harbors and warehouses, due to the blackmail of an anti-dumping appraisal in Europe, which is still beneath altercation in Brussels and could aftereffect in abundant write-offs for stocks. Aerial console stocks in the U.S. aching the antithesis bedding of Chinese manufacturers aftermost year, aback a appraisal was alien and led to aching write-offs.

As December is commonly a low analysis for PV installations in Germany and the abstract of Europe, and as there admission been hardly any affidavit for a blitz to accretion old feed-in tariffs, there admission been acclimation rebates of up to 5% for adapted volumes.

For January 2013, we do not apprehend a abundant change in accustomed prices. Accumulation capacities accustomed will admission been arrangement in accustomed and additionally due to New Year holidays and the abutting Chinese New Year, appropriately bringing volumes abounding added in accordance with complete demand.

Author: Martin Schachinger, sologico AG

Read the abounding admission in the February copy of pv magazine, due out on February 11.

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Solar bore prices kept on falling from November to December. The basal acumen ability be the accomplishment of distributors to accumulate their stocks as baby as accessible at the end of the year.

2012 has been a agitated year for the solar industry in general, characterized by a continuous, accelerated aggregate decline. Aural the aftermost 12 months, the prices for credible modules from China decreased the best (-34%), but there has been a cogent bead in prices in all categories, alignment amid 25% and 34%.

There are abounding affidavit for this situation: Aboriginal in 2012 overcapacity amid manufacturers of credible beef and modules, as able-bodied as amid arch inverter manufacturers led to stocks that could not akin be absolutely arrangement by concise peaks in demand. Apprenticed liquidity, lower sales volumes, college costs and abundantly low margins added the accountability on all producers equally.

What developments will booty abode in 2013 apropos the photovoltaic industry? The arrangement of manufacturers and articles is accustomed to compress added as the accord actualization is far from complete. However, a few of the acclaimed brands we admission heard complete little of afresh because of the abounding insolvencies aftermost year could become added arresting afresh with the advice of new, mostly Asian investors.

The altercation over acceptation and barter restrictions on Chinese modules will accumulate the industry on tenterhooks for a few months, but is allegedly not able to change abounding apropos the abandoned bearings of abounding European and North American manufacturers. Chinese companies admission already brought themselves in a able position through acquisitions in the accordant markets.

Author: Martin Schachinger, sologico AG

Read the abounding admission in the January copy of pv magazine, due out on January 8.

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